DISEM Workshop 3rd September 2012 Relevant socio-economic questions for MENA - demand on independent information for sustainable development

Transcription

1 DISEM Workshop 3rd September 2012 Relevant socio-economic questions for MENA - demand on independent information for sustainable development Presentation: Prof. Dr. Manfred Fischedick Thomas Fink

2 General need for sustainable energy system transition Global energy system is still fossil fuel dominated and not sustainable The global energy system is still fossil fuel dominated and amongst others GHG emissions from the provision of energy services contribute significantly to the increase in atmospheric GHG concentration A general need for energy system transition exists to mitigate climate change and solve additional challenges September 2012 Source: IPCC 2011 Page 2

3 Future energy system faces various challenges Sustainable energy system transition requires a multi-dimensional perspective - complex transition task Reliability (energy supply on demand) Broad access to energy (reduce energy poverty) Security of energy supply (reduction of dependency from conventional fuels) Compatibility with environment Economic efficiency (guarantee competitiveness of consumer) Compatibility with social concerns (affordable energy consumption) Risk minimisation Industrial impulses and employment effects Minimal system vulnerability Flexibility in terms of changing frame conditions (climate, demography, etc.) For many sustainable energy transi1on challenges RE could provide solu1ons September 2012 Page 3

4 Sustainable energy system transition to an RE dominated system is necessary Corresponding transformation process and underlying conditions differ from region to region Case Study Germany Energiewende in Germany covers nuclear phase out strategy (2011 -> 2022) as a consequence of nuclear power plant accidents in Fukushima Further deployment of renewable energies and substantial increase of energy efficiency (demand and supply side) as central pillar Case study MENA region Energy system transformation combined with growing energy demand Establishing of suitable energy infrastructures and powerful manufacturing industries as prerequisite Electricity demand in Marocco H >< 37 Source: Ikken September 2012 Page 4

5 Resulting challenges for each country are complex The sustainable transformation of an energy system is by far more than as a technological challenge Technological challenge system integration of new technologies including associated infrastructure Compatibility challenge cooperation between conventional and new technology options Infrastructure challenge further development of appropriate infrastructures (e.g. smart and super smart grid) Investment challenge Adapt to different investment charateristics (high capital cost, low variable costs) Resource challenge avoid negative resource impacts (e.g. critical resources) as potential future bottlenecks Stakeholder challenge persistence forces of established stakeholder Policy challenge integrated regional, national and international policy initiative (multi-level approach) Social challenge public perception and societal acceptance (incl. socio-economic impacts) September 2012 Page 5

6 From transdisciplinary sustainability science to transition science Science is requested to contribute to sustainable energy system transition - new self understanding of science: enabling transitions Understanding the System Policies Economy Society Technology Infra- structure Climate Resources Landuse Enabling Transitions Multilevel Transition- Cycle Learning & Up-scaling Evaluating, monitoring and learning for large-scale diffusion Mobilizing actors and executing projects and experiments Experiments Problem - Problem assessment, establishment and further development of the transition arena Developing Sustainability visions, concrete concepts and transition agendas Development Experiments Assessment Vision - Transitions to what? Defining Targets Land Use Climate Global Equity Resources Wealth System-Knowledge (Understanding socio-technical systems in their natural environment) Transformation- Knowledge (Enabling complex societal transitions) Target-Knowledge (Defining socio-ecological targets for a sustainable world: identification of trade off s and synergies) September 2012 Page 6

7 An illustrative example for target knowledge Definition of sustainability criteria for successful future (promising) technologies Technical viability technical know-how and appropriate local expertise are essential Economic feasibility economic potential (after initial period of investments) Local and global environmental benefits mitigation of fossil fuel energy consumption, GHG emissions and avoidance of negative environmental side effects, contribution to co-benefits (e.g. air quality improvement) Replicability and marketability solid basis for potential benefits in other areas if applicated elsewhere Poverty reduction, social equity and gender issues contribution to poverty reduction, respect social equity rules and gender issues Local manufacturing involvement and employment potential support involvelment of local population and local authorities: create regional employment potential - provide economic impetus (integrate ecological/economic objectives) System compatibility Compatibility with comprehensive inplementation strategies and concepts September 2012 Page 7

8 An illustrative example for system knowledge Value chain analysis and stakeholder interaction resulting employment effects for typical factories Table 1 Component specific parameter for typical factories (Source: own research). Components of the value chain Mirrors Receiver Steel structure HTF Annual output of a typical factory (GW/year) GW GW GW 41 GW Investment per factory (in euro) 30 Mio euro 40 Mio euro 10 Mio euro n.a. Jobs per factory (Jobs per year) 300 Jobs 140 Jobs 70 Jobs n.a. Core value chain Project Development Materials Components EPC Operation Distribution Elements of CSP value chain Concept Engineering Geographical Determination Determination of general requirements Concrete Steel Sand Glass Silver Copper Salt Other chemicals Mirrors Mounting Structure Receiver HTF Connection piping Steam generator / heat exchanger Pumps Storage System Power Block Grid connect. EPC-Contractor: Detailed Engineering Procurement Construction Operation & maintenance of the plant Utility Transport & distribution of electricity Essential partners Finance & Ownership Research & Development Political Institutions Fig. 2. CSP value chain (Source: Fraunhofer and Ernst & Young, 2011). September 2012 Source: Kost et al 2012 Page 8

9 An illustrative example for system knowledge Value chain analysis and stakeholder interactions and dependencies role of regional cluster and cooperation networks (case study Baden-Württemberg) Materials Components Project development, engineering and construction Operation and maintenance Manfucturer and provider of Turnkey Systems Linear Fresnel Technology Fully automated production lines to manufature compoentents of the solar field Manfucturer and provieder of heat storage for central receiver technology Manfucturer and provieder of automated production lines for heliostats General contractor and developer of Turnkey CSP systems Project development, engineering, procurement, constrution, commissioning and transfer Planning and consulting company Project development, engineering and construction, Operation and Consulting Technology developer parabolic trough, Dish Stirling, Towers and heliostats for central receivers Quality management, construction supervision, commissioning and consulting September 2012 Page 9

10 An illustrative example for system knowledge Understanding of mutually-reinforcing cycles of technology development and market deployment driving down technology costs! September 2012 Source: IPCC 2011 Page 10

11 An illustrative example for system knowledge External costs of RE are considerable lower than those for fossil fuels consideration of external costs increases competitiveness of RE September 2012 Source: IPCC 2011 Page 11

12 An illustrative example for transition knowledge Niche applications play major role for the change of socio-technical regime and implementation of necessary transition pathways Example: Energy system transi1on Demographic and Societal Developments (e.g. population growth, urbanization, individualization ) Market structure and rules Policy framework Investment environment Competence and experience 100% renewable regions, Public wind and solar parcs, Local manufacturing structures, System solutions combining RE and EE (real term experiments necessary) September 2012 Source: Geels 2002, own examples Page 12

13 Illustrative examples for science as transition knowledge basis Provision of neutral information for relevant stakeholder science as enabling body and facilitator for transition Neutral information about technologies infrastructures associated economic characteristics environmental impacts system behaviour must enable stakeholder in public authorities, parliaments, private sector and civil society to assess energy system develop opportunities based on their own knowledge Information about socio-economic effects regional economic impulses economic participation entrepreneurial (business) opportunities and industrial cooperation employment effects are crucial for social acceptance and positive public and policy makers involvement September 2012 Source: World Bank 2011, DIE 2012, 2012 Page 13

14 Illustrative examples for science as transition knowledge basis Provision of neutral information for relevant stakeholder science as enabling body and facilitator for transition Value chain analysis provides decision makers in MENA with information about local manufacturing potential, economic impact and employment chances Multi criteria RE technology analysis and assessment helps to assess different technologies from an overall perspective and set priorities and identify suitable technology combinations Assessment of energy efficiency potentials Investigate win-win potentials achievable via energy efficiency improvements (huge lack of research exists) and identify suitable system solutions (RE and EFF: combined technologies, policies and market instruments) Identification of local manufacturing opportunities Identify components of different technologies which could already today be manufactured in the region Capacity building Analyse appropriate technology transfer and capacity bulding structures as well as R&D structures September 2012 Cover from World Bank 2011, DIE 2012, 2012 Page 14

15 From transdisciplinary sustainability science to transition science The three (five) important socio-economic questions possible activities under DISEM How to support the creation of entrepreneurial and business opportunities along the RE value chain (right incentives and enabling investment environment for manufactures, power producers, service provider and consumers including capacity building, teaching of entrepreneurial skills and suitable policies)? How in-depth public involvement and participation can be organized as central basis for social acceptance of energy system transition? What are robust technologies (strategies) in MENA assessed from a multi-criteria perspective including socio-economic aspects like social acceptance and employment effects? What are relevant socio-technical interactions in the system and how do they impact (obstacle or driver) transition opportunities What are suitable technological, infrastructure or social niche innovations (real term experiments, system innovations) having the potential to trigger the transition of socio-technical regimes? September 2012 Source: World Bank 2011, DIE 2012, 2012 Page 15

16 Thank you very much!