SSC 2030: Energy Systems & Sustainability

Transcription

1 SSC 2030: Energy Systems & Sustainability 1. Introduction to energy systems & sustainability 1.2 What are energy systems? 1.3 The present global energy system 1.4 What is a sustainable energy system? 1.5 The case for sustainable energy: why it matters 1.6 Transitioning to low-carbon energy systems 1. Introduction 1.2 What are energy systems? 1

2 What is an energy system? Energy: the capacity to do work To move an object against a resisting force Measured in joules (J) Power: the rate of doing work The rate at which energy is converted from one form to another, or transmitted from one place to another Measured in watts (W) Note that power is often used colloquially -to mean electricity. Energy system: a set of energy sources, technologies, transmission, distribution, storage & management systems to produce energy services for consumers Interconnected entities Example: coal mine à coal-fired electrical plant à regional consumers Need for energy systems? Nations developed energy systems and energy policy once their societies had become complex and dependent on energy & when supplies and prices of that energy had become vulnerable & volatile. 2

3 1. Introduction 1.3 The present global energy system Global sources of primary energy Primary energy: fuel or technology used to produce heat and / or electricity Energy consump3on Popula3on GDP gross domes3c product EJ (exajoule): joules TW (terrawatt): watts 3

4 Global sources of primary energy Primary energy: fuel or technology used to produce heat and / or electricity Global energy consumption (2009) 2015 data: Global use of energy Note that this figure shows commercially-traded fuels in normalized to tonnes of oil per year (2009). Figure 1.7 Update from this 2009 data? Per capital energy consump3on in tonnes of oil equivalents (2009). 4

5 1. Introduction 1.4 What is sustainable energy? What is a sustainable energy system? Sustainable development meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs. - U.N. s Brundtland Commission (1987) Sustainable energy uses sources that meet these requirements: 1. Are not significantly depleted by continued use; 2. Do not emit pollutants or other hazards to humans or ecological and climate systems on a significant scale; and 3. Do not perpetuate social injustice. In this course, we ll look at the argument that many forms of energy can be considered sustainable if they are used in a sustainable manner. 5

6 Three linked pillars of sustainability Economic sustainability: encompasses requirements for strong & durable economic growth; preserving financial stability & a low & stable inflationary environment Environmental sustainability: focuses on the stability of biological & physical systems and on preserving access to a healthy natural environment Social sustainability: emphasizes the importance of well functioning labor markets & high employment, of adaptability to major demographic change & stability in social & cultural systems of equity and democratic participation in decision making - IEA (2001); OECD (2001) There are those who advocate for any sustainable change and those who believe climate change and other challenges require a much more rigorous approach to sustainability. [weak vs. strong sustainability] Three linked pillars of sustainability 6

7 Sustainability of our energy resources 1. Introduction 1.5 The case for sustainable energy; why does it matter? 7

8 Why does sustainable energy matter? There are three major reasons, each creating a point of view or perspective. Growthist 1. There is a very large unmet demand for energy in developing countries. 2. The supply of fossil fuels is finite and won t meet these demands. 3. GCC requires us to dramatically reduce emissions of carbon dioxide. Environmentalist Peakist Growth of energy demand Evidence of unmet energy demand? (2012) 1.4 billion have no electricity 2.5 billion lack clean cooking technology Global population will rise by 2 billion by 2050 Growthist Figure

9 Exponential growth? Exponential growth occurs when the increase is the same percentage each year. Long-term steady exponential growth in energy demand is environmentally unsustainable. In nature, exponential growth is a short-term phenomenon. Growthist Growth of the Chinese economy & coal production have been exponential. Finite resources peak & fall Peakist Fossil fuel resources are finite, thus will peak at some point. When? Figure 1.15 Even uranium resources & reserves are finite. 9

10 Distribution of resources & reserves Peakist Distribution of resources & reserves Resources: all global fossil fuels Reserves: fossil fuel that can be extracted economically Proven energy reserves: estimated quantities of energy sources that geologic & engineering analysis demonstrates with reasonable certainty can be recovered under existing economic & operating conditions Location, quantity & grade should be considered well established. Reserves to production ratio (R/P): year at current production rates 10

11 R/P ratio of global reserves Peakist Peak oil projections (Hubbert) red = peak predic3on green = US lower 48 produc3on M. King Hubbert Peakist

12 US field production of crude oil Why is oil production up? New technology: fracking Higher oil prices Peakist US oil prices Price per barrel: logarithmic & adjusted for infla3on Gray bars = recessions Why is oil production up? New technology: fracking Higher oil prices Peakist htp:// 12

13 Monthly spot prices & proven reserves Fracking technology has made it economical to extract oil & natural gas from shale formation that can t be harvested with conventional drilling. Increased production has recently decreased price. Fossil fuel use increases CO 2 emissions Combusting fossil fuels to produce energy releases carbon dioxide (and other pollutants) into the atmosphere. C 3 H O 2 à 3 CO H 2 O Fossil fuel pounds CO 2 emission / Btu coal (anthracite) coal (bituminous) coal (lignite) coal (subbitumminous) diesel / hea3ng oil gasoline propane natural gas Btu = British thermal unit (unit of heat energy) Environmentalist U.S. Energy Information Administration 13

14 GHGs and global climate change Greenhouse gases insulate the earth retain solar energy. heat. Environmentalist globalwarming-facts.info/greenhouse-effect Correlation: GHG & global temperature Estimates of Earth s changing CO 2 concentrations & Antarctic temperatures based on ice-core data. Environmentalist 14

15 Climate effects: natural vs. anthropogenic Models accounting for natural processes cannot explain recent warming, but models that incorporate the effect of GHG Environmentalist concentrations can. Nuclear safety? Concerns about nuclear safety have been raised by: Accidents; Health effects of mining uranium; & Dangers posed by storing waste from nuclear plants. Environmentalist 15

16 8/31/18 And danger isn t confined to nuclear The Deep Water Horizon explosion & oil spill killed workers and poisoned the environment of the Gulf of Mexico Environmentalist Environmentalist POV and perspective shape action We ve got plenty of op3ons to solve climate change but I am concerned that we are running out of cheaper energy supplies and this could impact on global economic growth rates. growthist peakist Economic prosperity is the key to solving the twin problems of maintaining energy supply and comba`ng climate change. As we get richer, I ve no doubt we ll find ingenious ways of ge`ng the remaining fossil fuel out of the ground and we have other op3ons like nuclear power too but how much more carbon dioxide can we dump into the atmosphere? environmentalist Consump3on is at the heart of the mater. We can t go on comsuming as we do. The bad news is that we are changing the Earth s climate. The good news is that we may be running out of cheap oil and gas, possibly coal 16

17 1. Introduction 1.6 The transition to low-carbon energy systems Any solution must lower carbon emissions Transitioning to low-carbon fuels or using abundant fuels without emitting carbon - will address the concerns of growthists, peakists and environmentalists. 1. Manage human population levels (speeding the demographic shift). 2. Accept & adapt to lower growth in per capita gross domestic product. 3. Reduce the amount of energy required per unit of GDP. 4. Reduce the amount of carbon emitted per unit of energy produced. Increase energy efficiency to maximize GDP per unit of energy Reduce CO 2 emission from fossil fuels. Transi3on to renewable energy &/ nuclear power. 17

18 Kaya Identity a simple formula used to explore the options we have for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from energy production & use. gross domes3c product primary energy consump3on CO 2 emissions = population GDP. population energy. GDP CO 2 emissions. primary energy from human sources per capita GDP energy intensity energy s carbon intensity Conservation & energy efficiency Energy conservation is critical to a sustainable energy future, but isn t sexy and is often ignored. 18

19 Changing patterns of energy use: UK Massive change in UK transportation since Changing patterns of energy use: UK Coal for hea3ng, electricity & transporta3on. Most used trains vs. cars. Oil & NG discovered in the North Sea replaced coal. Gas & nuclear now supply more electricity than coal. Cars increasing. North Sea NG is depleted. UK is now impor3ng oil. Gas & nuclear now supply more electricity than coal. Cars s3ll increasing. UK plans to reduce GHG emissions by 80% by Back to 1990 GHG levels. 19

20 Energy trilemma htps:// 20