AV Jackie Fenn, Alexander Linden

Transcription

1 Jackie Fenn, Alexander Linden Article Top View 4 December 2002 Key Technology Advances From 2003 to 2012 Disruptive advances in physical and logical (that is, data, knowledge and applicationlevel) connectivity, and in smart, embedded chips, will transform key business functions in the next decade. Despite the fact that the IT industry seems faced with constant and rapid adoption of new technology, fundamental shifts of focus in IT move at a much slower pace (see Figure 1). Many of these shifts do not realize their full potential until the next major advance comes along. For example, PCs revolutionized access to computing power, compared with earlier mainframes, but the impact of creating departmental or personal spreadsheets was far less than the impact of connecting PCs to each other and to the Web. Through 2010, the emphasis on physical connectivity will continue as the wired world gives way to a predominantly wireless one through 2007 to Figure 1 Fundamental Shifts in IT Focus Embedded Connectivity Logical Connectivity Physical Connectivity Personal Computing Mainframe Computing Source: Gartner Research Gartner Entire contents 2002 Gartner, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

2 The current era of physical connectivity is being augmented by a growing focus on logical connectivity for example, through application integration, service-oriented architectures and semantic standards. From around 2010, the potential of smart, embedded computing power in everyday objects and places will become another major focus area. These fundamental shifts are driven not by a single development, but by a series of technological advances that dovetail into transformational combinations. In this Predicts Spotlight, we identify key technologies that will be drivers of change in their own right and, equally importantly, in supporting these fundamental shifts in the capabilities of IT. Networking and Mobility Wireless remains one of the most transformational advances of the next decade (see The Wireless and Mobile Market Starts to Mature ). The connected society will evolve as a consequence of citizens having easy access to wireless bandwidth and personal mobile or wearable devices. Location-based and context-aware services taking advantage of knowing a user s physical location and assumed interests and goals will provide new value-added services (such as real-time route modification or automated hotel check-in). Applications such as electronic wallets based on mobile phone accounts will start to finally deliver alternatives to cash micropayments (for example, paybox and Cellenium). In addition, wired connectivity will boost the performance of both wired and wireless end points and also undergo its own evolution. Voice and data networks will merge into a single, advanced IP network handling the majority of the world s communication needs by Hardware and Platform Technologies Wireless technology will also play a key role in transforming the platforms that mobile, home and business users interact with. Hardware and Platform Technologies From 2003 to 2012 identifies five disruptive technology advances: Wireless networks will drive platform evolution. The combination of broadband access and wireless LANs in the home will create a renewed focus on alternate form factors, such as tablets, suitable for a range of access needs and locations. Networked chips will be embedded in everyday objects. The cost of radio frequency identification (RFID) and other tagging technology will be reduced dramatically during the next decade, leading to new cost efficiencies in tagging even low-value items. Placing communications capabilities directly on the chip will enhance communications between items, people and remote systems. Micro-electromechanical systems (MEMSs) will add perception and control to chips. MEMSs will add low-cost sensing and mechanical response at the chip level. Alternate power sources will be commercialized for mobile devices. Alternate power sources, such as fuel cells, will have the potential to provide long-lasting power without the need to connect to an electrical socket to recharge. Pen and paper will join the digital world. Digital ink, embedded power sources and chips, and inexpensive wireless communications will bring traditional paper and pens into the digital world. Human-Computer Interaction 4 December

3 Interacting with new platforms and applications to take full advantage of their capabilities remains a challenge even for the most digitally literate. Human-Computer Interfaces From 2003 to 2012 examines advances in input and output capabilities, as well as the underlying interaction metaphors: Computer screens will become ubiquitous in the everyday environment. Advances in screen technologies (such as organic light-emitting diodes, light-emitting polymers and digital ink) will create low-cost, power-efficient screens in traditional devices (such as personal digital assistants and phones) and in new locations and applications (such as packaging and retail). Input interfaces will enable computers to sense their environment and the identity of their users, and personalize interactions appropriately. Multimodal interfaces will add speech recognition, pen and handwriting recognition to traditional pointer and keyboard interfaces. Advanced interface metaphors will improve the information supply. Improved personalization, search and browsing capabilities will elevate human-computer interaction to a pull metaphor, rather than the push approach of earlier decades. Application Integration Architecture and application development and integration will need to evolve as changing infrastructure and business requirements outpace the performance of traditional approaches. The Integrated Enterprise From 2003 to 2012 identifies five trends: Business activity monitoring for the real-time enterprise drives architectural agility. Creating the real-time enterprise will require timely access to critical data from multiple systems and sources, which, in turn, will require a renewed emphasis on flexible and rapidly reconfigurable architectures. Service-oriented architecture and Web services will dominate by Service-oriented architectures, including Web services, will allow systems to be delivered as a series of interfaces that adhere to certain component and interface standards. Semantic integration lags physical integration. Even with the interconnection of systems and applications that have traditionally been separated, agreement on semantic-level standards (that is, naming conventions and common data elements) will only occur in narrow domains. Rules are an enabler of architectural agility. Business and workflow logic will increasingly be represented as explicit and more-easily-modified knowledge (for example, as rules, events or states). Architectural agility will lead to personalized enterprise applications. Just as personal portals can now be configured rapidly for small groups or individuals, so componentized applications will, in the future, be configured for specific groups or individual requirements. Analytics Connectivity and automation lead to increased opportunities to collect information about the behavior of customers, employees, partners and other stakeholders. Smart enterprises take advantage of this information by applying analytical or predictive techniques to support future decisions and further automation. Analytics From 2003 to 2012 identifies three trends in analytics: 4 December

4 Analytics will become more important as more data becomes more available. The increasing volume of data collected will result in an analysis gap (data collected but not analyzed) and, more importantly, in an action gap (insights gained, but not acted upon). Advanced analytics will remain a niche market as they become embedded. Data mining and other analytical techniques will be embedded in widely available tools, but understanding how to use them will remain a niche skill set. Unstructured data analytics will become more prevalent. Analysis techniques will, increasingly, address not only structured data, but also text, audio and video information. Electronic Workplace The communications, collaboration and information access infrastructure of the electronic workplace is constantly being challenged by factors such as the increasing number of knowledge workers (30 percent to 35 percent of the workforce in developed nations by 2005), the globalization of work and the recognition of information as an enterprise asset. Technologies such as portals, advanced search techniques, expertise location and mobile and wearable access are providing pieces of the solution. At the same time, these technologies compound problems such as message and information overload. We expect consolidation to take place in this market, culling the less-effective tools (see The Smart Enterprise Suite Is Coming: Do We Need It? ). As the notion of the office as a fixed location gives way to a situation where office is just the act of paying attention to work through always-on access, so organizational structures, IT infrastructures and business processes must constantly be reinvented. Customer Self Service Because self-service technologies have a fast return on investment, they will be adopted more widely not just by leading-edge verticals, such as financial services and computer vendors, but also by traditionally hard-to-automate industries such as insurance. Self-Service From 2003 to 2012 explores how human agents will increasingly be engaged in secret customer service to support the automated systems where they fall short, often without the customer knowing that there is a human in the loop. One of the results will be a change in the nature of contact center personnel; as more of the routine inquiries and transactions are automated, the human agents must become more highly skilled. As customers realize the benefits of automated systems, many may grow to prefer this mode of interaction and become willing participants in the further automation of transactions and services (for example, automated purchase systems in physical stores). Supply Chain A major goal in supply chain management is increasing the visibility and control over items throughout the supply chain. A number of developments will affect this market in the next decade, and we will address this area in a future Spotlight issue. Business activity monitoring will reduce information float (the time between when new information is captured in one place and when it becomes available and usable elsewhere). Low-cost RFID will transform a broad range of supply chain functions by maintaining continuity of item identity and fine-grained visibility of products throughout the supply chain. 4 December

5 Improved visibility and tracking will inevitably lead to significantly more data capture, and the kind of analysis gap between storing data and understanding how to take advantage of it that has arisen in areas such as customer relationship management. Tagging and tracking will support cradle to grave applications, where consumers and enterprises can continue to interact well after the transaction has occurred for example, when diagnosing faults, conducting safety checks or recalls, or in loss prevention. Features Hardware and Platform Technologies From 2003 to 2012 Ongoing miniaturization and wireless capabilities will be key drivers in platform evolution. By Jackie Fenn, Jim Walker, Rafe Ball and Jim Tully Human-Computer Interfaces From 2003 to 2012 New display technologies will transform humancomputer interaction. By Alexander Linden The Integrated Enterprise From 2003 to 2012 Accommodating new demands for information will chage the infrastructure toward less-monolithic systems. By Jackie Fenn, Yefim Natis, Jim Sinur and Alexander Linden Analytics From 2003 to 2012 Analyzing data for useful information will be embedded in other applications or outsourced. By Alexander Linden Self-Service From 2003 to 2012 Supporting automated phone systems with human agents will improve customer satisfaction. By Jackie Fenn 4 December