Status of CCSM3. Bill Collins. National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado. 9 th CCSM Workshop 7-9 July 2004, Santa Fe, NM.

Transcription

1 Status of CCSM3 Bill Collins National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado

2 Topics Release of CCSM3 Simulations for IPCC and paleoclimates Improvements in the climate simulation Systematic challenges in the simulations Extensions to coupled chemistry/climate Extensions to higher spatial resolution and process fidelity

3 Release of CCSM3 Release Date: June 23, 2004 Contents: Code Input data sets Scripts for compilation and execution Documentation URL: Number of downloads to date: Counter

4 Supported Resolutions and Platforms Scalar Platforms: IBM SP SGI Origin Linux (PGI) Compaq Vector Platforms: NEC (Earth Simulator) Cray X1 Resolution T85x1 T42x1 FV T31x3. Dynamics IPCC AMWG, CVWG, Paleo, BGCWG, Paleo

5 CCSM3 Control Experiments %CO 2 1%CO 2 2x 1%CO 2 4x 20 th C. T31x TBD TBD T42x / 214 T85x / Yellow = NCAR Systems Red = Earth Simulator TBD (5x) TBD = To Be Done

6 Distribution of CCSM3 Control Runs Central site: Earth System Grid DOE project to integrate major centers for supercomputing and analysis CCSM3 output available: Current contents: Perpetual 1990 runs Averaged data sets: Open access Original history files: SCD account holders Access point:

7 CCSM3 Documentation New software manuals: Users guides Code references New NCAR technical notes: CAM CSIM CLM DVGM (Dynamic Global Vegetation Model) New technical report for POP

8 Special Issue of Journal of Climate Objectives: Describe CCSM3 to the climate community Document CCSM3 for the IPCC 4 th Assessment Report Topics: Overview of CCSM Description of features & climate state for each component Climate sensitivity Response of CCSM to paleo, pre-industrial conditions Major modes of coupled variability Editor: Dave Randall Deadline: November 2004 Contents: 29 papers proposed by seven working groups

9 Special Issue of IJHPCA (International Journal of High Performance Computing Applications) Guest editors: John Drake (ORNL) Phil Jones (LANL) Tom Henderson (NCAR) Schedule: May 2004: Call for papers Oct. 2004: Deadline for papers Fall 2005: Publication of special issue (V. 18,#3) Major topics: Software engineering for climate models Performance and portability of climate model codes

10 The Experimental Configuration Three phases: Pre-industrial (1870) 20th Century ( ) Emissions Scenarios SRES Scenarios: Commitment (20 th C. CO 2 ) (5 runs) (1 run) A1B and B1 Scenarios (5 runs) Const (5 runs) Const (1 run) A2 Scenario (5 runs)

11 Experimental Design Forcing 20 th Century 21 st -23 rd Century Greenhouse Gases Observed SRES Ozone Trop: MOZART Strat: Solomon Trop: MOZART scaled by O 3 TAR forcing Strat: Solomon Sulfate Aerosols SO 2 : Smith/Wigley SO 2 : SRES Carbon Aerosols Population Scaling SO 2 Scaling Sea-salt & Dust Year 2000 values Year 2000 values Volcanic Aerosols Ammann (2003) Year 2000 values Solar Variation Lean (1995) Year 2000 values Indirect Effects None None

12 Aerosol Optical Depths Sulfates Black & Organic Carbon Strat. Volcanics

13 Time Line for the Experiments Current Status

14 Comparison of CCSM3 and Global Surface Temperatures CCWG/Arblaster

15 Projections for the 21 st Century A1B Scenario B1 Scenario Commitment Kyosei Consortium

16 Transient Climate Sensitivity from CCSM3

17 Equilibrium Sensitivity from CAM3 + SOM Kiehl and Shields T85 2 x CO 2 T85 1 x CO 2 T42 2 x CO 2 T42 1 x CO 2 T31 2 x CO 2 T31 1 x CO 2

18 Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Kiehl and Shields

19 Cloud Radiative Response to 2xCO 2 Kiehl and Shields

20 CCSM3 Surface Temperature Global/Annual Mean Slab ocean Coupled -5.7 C -2.8 C -5.9 C Otto-Bliesner

21 Land Use as a Climate Forcing IMAGE Potential Vegetation Much of the present-day natural vegetation has been cleared for agricultural land. By 2100, there is likely to be further expansion of agricultural land in North America, South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia Undisturbed IMAGE Land Cover What is the land use forcing relative to other natural and anthropogenic forcings? IMAGE A2: 2100 Land Cover IMAGE 2.2 Land Cover Types 5 - Regrowth (timber) 11 - Temperate Mixed Forest 17 - Savanna 0 - Ocean 6 - Ice 12 - Temperate Decid Forest 18 - Tropical Woodland 1 - Agriculture 7 - Tundra 13 - Warm Mixed Forest 19 - Tropical Forest 2 - Extensive grassland 8 - Wooded Tundra 14 - Grass/Steppe No Data 3 - C plantation - NU 9 - Boreal Forest 15 - Desert 4 - Regrowth (abandon) 10 - Cool Conifer 16 - Scrubland IMAGE 2.2 Land Cover Types 0 - Ocean 1 - Agriculture 2 - Extensive grassland 3 - C plantation - NU 4 - Regrowth (abandon) 5 - Regrowth (timber) 6 - Ice 7 - Tundra 8 - Wooded Tundra 9 - Boreal Forest 10 - Cool Conifer 11 - Temperate Mixed Forest 12 - Temperate Decid Forest 13 - Warm Mixed Forest 14 - Grass/Steppe 15 - Desert 16 - Scrubland 17 - Savanna 18 - Tropical Woodland 19 - Tropical Forest No Data IMAGE 2.2 Land Cover Types 0 - Ocean 1 - Agriculture 2 - Extensive grassland 3 - C plantation - NU 4 - Regrowth (abandon) 5 - Regrowth (timber) 6 - Ice 7 - Tundra 8 - Wooded Tundra 9 - Boreal Forest 10 - Cool Conifer Participants: LMWG, CCWG, and NCAR Biogeosciences and Assessment initiatives 11 - Temperate Mixed Forest 12 - Temperate Decid Forest 13 - Warm Mixed Forest 14 - Grass/Steppe 15 - Desert 16 - Scrubland 17 - Savanna 18 - Tropical Woodland 19 - Tropical Forest No Data

22 Simulations for Present-Day Conditions: CCSM3 vs. CCSM2

23 Effects of the Ocean Diurnal Cycle Observations CCSM3 with Cycle CCSM3 without Cycle

24 Effects of Chlorophyll Absorption Heating By Chlorophyll

25 Effects of Resolution on Sea-Ice Thickness T85 1 T42 1 T85 1 T42 1

26 Improved SLP Teleconnections for ENSO

27 Effects of New CAM Physics on Temperatures CAM2 T42 NCEP CAM3 T42 CAM2 T42 CAM2 - NCEP CAM3 CAM2

28 Improved Cloud Response to ENSO CAM3 T42 AMIP CAM3 T42 AMIP ERBE CAM2 T42 ERBE

29 Improvements in Surface Radiation over Sea-Ice Shortwave Flux Observations Longwave Flux

30 SST Biases in W. Coastal Regions

31 Semi-Annual SST Cycle Anomaly: Observations Anomaly: T85 1

32 Periodicity of ENSO NCEP Monthly Nino 3.4 σ=0.82 K T85 1 Monthly Nino 3.4 σ=0.77 K

33 Double ITCZ Issue

34 Excessive Ice in FV Coupled Runs FV T85 1 FV T85 1

35 Continental Precipitation Biases Large dry precipitation biases in southeast U.S., Amazonia, and SE Asia could adversely affect the terrestrial carbon cycle

36 Continental Temperature Biases Large (6-10ºC) winter warm temperature biases in the Arctic could adversely affect the terrestrial carbon cycle

37 Multi-Century Coupled Carbon/Climate Simulations Surface Temp Net CO 2 Flux (Pg C/yr) Doney and Fung Fully prognostic land/ocn BGC and carbon/radiation Atm-Land: 70 PgC/yr ; Atm-Ocean: 90 PgC/yr Net Land+ocean: 0±1 PgC/yr Stable carbon cycle and climate over 1000y Projection of climate change on natural modes Detection & attribution Future climate projections/fossil fuel perturbations

38 Response of Terrestrial Carbon to Interactive Nitrogen Deposition A2 Scenario Wet deposition Dry NEE response to +1 C step change Sink Nitrogen deposition likely to increase in future: Including nitrogen in terrestrial carbon model can change sign in carbon dioxide flux! Coupled C-N model C-only model Source Mahowald and Thornton

39 Simulations with CLM-CN for 275 years Leaf carbon pool (gc/m 2 ) Captures the essential global details of canopy distribution Net Ecosystem productivity (gc/m 2 d) Boreal zone still accumulating carbon. CLM3-CN operating in C-only mode for rapid spinup (Peter Thornton, NCAR)

40 Offline Transport Modeling in CCSM3 Offline CAM3 MOZART Comparison of passive tracer concentrations at 500 mb Advection using NCEP fields for 30 days Tracer initialized to unity at 700 mb Hess and Rasch

41 Prognostic Aerosols Seasonal Cycle of Prognostic Dust Optical Depth Aerosol Species: Sulfates Nitrates Dust Sea Salt BC and OC Mahowald

42 Response of Ocean Biogeochemistry to Changes in Iron Deposition Mineral aerosol loading 3.00E E+01 TIMIND BASE BASECO2 CULT+TIMIND CULT+BASE CULT+BASECO2 Loading (Tg/m2) 2.00E E E E E s 1990s 2090s Changes in mineral aerosol deposition due to climate change interacts with ocean uptake of carbon through iron limitation and nitrogen fixation changes ocean carbon uptake in future. Mahowald

43 Differences in Ozone due to Dynamics

44 Reactive Tropospheric Ozone Chemistry Lamarque

45 High Resolution Ocean Modeling

46 Entrain More Hydrologists In Model Development VIC model stream flow simulations for selected river river basins across the N-LDAS domain (see Maurer et al, al, 2002, for details) Participants: Dennis Lettenmaier (University of Washington) Eric Wood (Princeton University) LMWG and NCAR Water Cycle initiative: Gordon Bonan (NCAR) David Gochis (NCAR) David Yates (NCAR) Keith Oleson (NCAR) Goal The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is a leading macroscale hydrologic model. We want to bring the VIC hydrology into the CLM to improve the simulation of the hydrologic cycle

47 Conclusions CCSM3 has been released to the community. IPCC simulations are well underway. Analysis has begun for: Characterization of the simulated climate Climate sensitivity Climate forcing for the 20 th century Challenges ahead: Process-oriented modeling of the climate Coupled chemistry/climate modeling