Les sociétés à l épreuve du changement climatique : éduquer agir gouverner. Rendre concret le changement climatique : en parler, le saisir?

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1 Université européenne d été 2015 du 30 juin au 3 juillet 2015 Les sociétés à l épreuve du changement climatique : éduquer agir gouverner Rendre concret le changement climatique : en parler, le saisir? Représentations, émotions, pratiques Gouvieux, le 1 er juillet 2015 Perception publique, définitions officielles en Chine Yan BO, professeure, École des relations internationales et des affaires publiques, Fudan University, Chine Marie-Françoise Chevallier-Le Guyader : Bo Yan est professeure à l École des relations internationales et des affaires publiques de l Université Fudan de Shanghai. Ses recherches portent sur la gouvernance environnementale mondiale et les relations internationales. Elle interviendra vendredi avec son collègue sur la dimension d analyse des rapports internationaux et des négociations d un point de vue de la Chine, mais avant, nous lui avons demandé de nous parler des représentations en Chine du changement climatique par le gouvernement et la population. Merci Bo Yan pour votre exposé. Bo Yan : You might agree with me that China has played a key role in global climate governance due to its huge contribution to this problem and its big influence. I would like to share my understanding with you on China s perception of climate change before we talk more about its role in international climate negotiations as well as its approach at national level.

2 I will address this issue through the following four aspects. Firstly I think that China defines climate change primarily as a development issue. That is perhaps different from that of developed countries. Secondly I will address China s concerns for climate change as a security issue. Then I will give you China s public perceptions of climate change and some preliminary conclusions. China s definition of climate change as a development issue means that they perceive climate change as an issue arising out of development and should be solved along with development. Before we look at those definitions let s see how China assesses climate change scientifically. In the 1990s when global climate governance started, China emphasized the scientific uncertainty of climate change and was doubtful of the conclusions presented by the IPCC. China emphasized the idea that developing countries have also been facing serious domestic environmental problems. With the increase of interaction between China and the international community in the 2000s, the country began to strongly identify with the IPCC s reports. The trend of climate change in China was consistent with that of global climate change characterized by global warming. In 2006 China released a national assessment report, relating their observation record and impact of climate change over the last century as well as its trend toward the future. In 2007 China issued its National Climate Change program, the first major initiative to elaborate on its strategies and targets. Studies indicate that climate change has had impact on China such as sea level rise in coastal areas, glacial retreat in the North West, the early arrival of spring. Significant impacts will also be had on China s ecosystems and socio-economic systems. Those were the scientific assessments. Meanwhile, China began witnessing more frequent and increasingly extreme weather events especially in In that year there were more of extreme weather events and a disaster caused by prolonged low temperatures, icy rain and heavy snow in South China, which is historically rare. It was really in 2007 and 2008 that the issue of climate change began to occupy an enhanced status in the government s agenda. In recent years there has also been very serious smog in the Chinese sky, which has become an issue of public concern. Combined with the adverse effects of climate change and a domestic interest, China has developed more political willingness to address these issues. In this context, China addresses climate change as a development issue arising out of development. First of all, they emphasize the historical responsibilities of developing countries. For China the accumulation of green house gases in the atmosphere is a product of long historical processes. Developed countries have emitted the majority of these gases in the last two centuries, which contributes 60-80% of climate change observed in the early 21st century. At the same time, China admits that its own rising emissions are unavoidable since it is following the same mode of development as developed countries. As you may already know China has endorsed the idea of common but differentiated responsibilities between developed and developing countries. This is a principle of compromise between for developed and developing countries in the early 1990s. It seeks to deal with climate change and economic development at the same time. The world has changed and the EU and the US both seek to redefine the principle of CBDRRC, but China stands firmly against its

3 rewriting or reinterpretation. I think that this principle will be another focus during the Paris Conference. China used to emphasize its lower historical emissions per capita, but alongside its development these emissions have grown and with it the country s responsibilities. It is rumored that Chinese per capita emissions are nearly at the same level as that of European countries. China admits to its increasing emissions while insisting on them being different in nature. If you look at the Environmental Kuznets Theory,some Chinese scholars argue that China s emissions are still in the climbing phase while emissions of developed countries are already in their downward phase thus the nature of the emissions are different. Some scholars try to propose another indicator - per capita accumulative emissions, as a possible indicator for the design of an international climate regime. China proposes to solve climate change alongside development. There are severe challenges in coping with climate change and simultaneously with the acceleration of urbanization, industrialization and the increase of energy consumption. China argues for its being at a special development phase and worries about its ability to complete these two tasks at the same time. An appropriate level of economic development should be the prerequisite for adopting concrete measures. There is also importance put on China s future development space, which I will discuss later in regard to the Copenhagen Conference. At the international level China emphasizes the fair distribution of obligations among different countries. States and countries have different roles and capabilities regarding climate change and China argues that it should not and could not take on obligations with the same nature and quantity as that of developed countries. Their basic approach is to incorporate climate change issues into its economic and social development, which can be seen in the country s five-year plan that gives a numerical target for reducing carbon dioxide. Nowadays there are domestic debates about China s approach to economic development & environmental improvement. One line of thinking asserts that environmental problems in China are mainly caused by its rapid economic growth. In such a case why not slow economic growth to improve environmental quality? Other arguments pose that it isn t wise for China to do so since it remains in its middle development stage with a manufacturing based economy with characteristics of high density energy use & greater environmental pressure. Developed countries like the UK, France and the US experienced similar stories. On the other hand, China s energy mix is dominated by coal, which has a higher degree of pollution than oil and gas. These facts will not change for quite a while. If the economy was slowed it would take China much longer to transform from a medium income country to a high income one, or from a manufacturing based to a service based economy. The government is aware of its potentially dangerous environmental capacity and has the willingness to pursue green development, secular development and low carbon development. Those strategies and plans currently need improving. China has also begun to look at climate change through the perspective of security. This was developed following China began to use threat instead of impact when it described the adverse effect of climate change. The subject first appeared in the white paper of China s national defense in 2008 as one

4 potential threat alongside other non-traditional security issues such as economic insecurity, information security, and public health. China believes that climate change is deeply embedded in its homeland security. That is why they did not agree to discuss the issue in UN Security Council when it was actively proposed by the UK and other European countries. I think this is a complementary perception to China s core definition of climate change. Some international institutions, including The World Bank and the BBC have taken surveys on China s public perception of climate change. Here is a survey taken by the Center China Climate Change Communication, which was jointly established by a non-governmental organization of Oxfam, the Renmin University of China. They performed the survey from a third party stance in 2012 to see how ordinary Chinese adults perceive climate change. More than 4,000 Chinese adults aged from were involved. 6.6% of responders had never heard of climate change, while more than 93% of people surveyed had knowledge of the subject at varying degrees. More than 55% of people believe it to be caused by human activity while 31% believe it results from natural causes. Regarding public concerns of the seriousness of climate change, 23% of people are very worried with only 8.2% are not at all concerned. More than 68% of responders believe that China has already suffered from climate change with only 6% denying there being any adverse effects. With respect to public opinion of who are major actors in climate change, more than 88% believe that government takes the prime responsibility in addressing these issues, followed by the public, media, enterprise and NGOs. Only 17% of surveyed are not willing to pay more for climate friendly products in order to reduce greenhouse gases, while the majority of consumers are willing to do so. To conclude, China has been facing serious domestic environmental problems and global environmental problems at the same time for the past several decades. The situation continues today. Things have also changed. In the past China emphasized the competitive relations between domestic environmental problems and global climate change. Today the country is seeking the more synergistic relationships between the two issues especially concerning poor air quality. This can create opportunities for the country to deal with the two types of issues at the same time. China s primary definition of climate change as a development issue means it has prioritized its economic development and concerns for its future development space. I think that public perception of climate change plays a limited role in shaping the government s policy. This role may expand in the future as environmentally focused NGOs develop. Thank you very much. Une intervenante : Thanks for this perspective. As the general public does not have a big influence on policy, I would think that senior members of the government could. Has there been any work to collect their opinions? Bo Yan : My research has been focused on different departments as Chinese officials are not very fond of interviews. There are not as many conflicts among these departments as what is inferred by Western IR theory. In China the National Development and Reform Committee is the leading unit for climate change in the government. It coordinates between departments and ministries. The central

5 departments of the government present a strong willingness to address climate change and other environmental problems. For people at provincial and local levels the case may be different. It is difficult to know the ideas of individual officials however. Un intervenant : Some very serious scientists have addressed the carrying capacity of the planet in relation to human populations. We are nearing 7 billion. The calculation suggests that if we all had a standard of living like that of North America the planet could manage 1.5 billion, and if we all had the standard of living of India, the planet could carry 15 billion. If those estimates are somewhat correct something has to give way. Either the rich will have to become poorer or the poor will have to aspire to be less rich than they dream to become. What is your view of this? Bo Yan : That is a question, which should be answered by the world s people and their leaders. I think your question reflects different theories of fairness and justice. But the thing is people in developed countries have no right to deprive people in developing countries of the right to pursue better life. The key is how to achieve co-existence and co-development in a better way. Therefore, more political willingness for cooperation between developing and developed countries are needed. If developed countries could do more in terms of transferring fund and technology to poorer countries for building their capacity to address climate change, most of those developing countries would choose a more climate friendly process. That is a common task for all countries. I think the most important thing is to shorten the time frame for developing countries to achieve a certain development stage with the right capacities of tackling the adverse effects of climate change. We need to consider the ecological cap ability as well economic and political feasibility. I agree that it will be difficult. Une intervenante : I have read that China uses sulfur dioxide in their coal plants to reduce CO2 emissions. Do you think this can be framed as a victory of the long term perspective of taking global warming seriously over the short term goal to improve air pollution? Bo Yan : I think it may be a wrong interpretation. China is facing both air pollution and climate change. As I understand, air pollution is more urgent for China in some regions and more priority should be given to it. Although there is a competitive relation between them, China has begun to recognize the synergistic relationships between these two issues since global warming and air pollution have the same source - the unlimited burning of coal and oil. If China can adopt effective policy measures, it could address these two different environmental problems at the same time. China nowadays is at a stage of strong political willingness to address climate change balancing domestic motivation with international pressure. When a country is integrating these measures in their policy decisions, they are long term solutions Denis Despréaux : Vous avez montré à quel point la Chine a aujourd hui intégré le concert des pays concernés par le changement climatique et s intègre dans une dynamique de lutte contre le changement climatique vis-à-vis de politiques internes et internationales. Vous avez abordé la relation de la Chine avec l Europe, mais le pays joue-t-il un rôle de leader local parmi les pays asiatiques? Le sujet du changement climatique est-il prioritaire dans les agendas politiques régionaux? Quel rôle la Chine peut-elle jouer dans ce contexte?

6 Bo Yan : Good question. Unfortunately, I think that cooperation between the EU and China & the US and China, especially in international climate negotiations are more productive than the cooperation among Asian nations. As I understand there are three key players in global climate governance: the US, China and the EU. They have both more emissions and more influence in the process of global climate governance. At regional level, Asian countries do have some forum on climate. For example, in 2005, Beijing Climate Centre has expanded the China-Japan-Korea summer monsoon forum to WMO RⅡ countries and added the climate monitoring and impact assessment to the forum. In the past years, the FOCRAⅡ developed models, shared information, and carried out training on prediction and assessment method, which help some Asian countries in developing climate operation and services. It seems that the cooperation forum puts more emphasis on climate services instead of climate negotiations or mitigations. The institutions among Asian countries are very loose on this subject. This is partly due to the difference among Asian countries, like Japan and China, in terms of their development level and responsibilities on climate change. Moreover, the Asian countries discuss more about the regional environmental problems like acid rain and sandstorms. As I understand, climate change is not a priority issue between China and other Asian countries. Une intervenante : In the survey you presented was there a difference made between urban dwellers and rural dwellers in regard to their perspective on climate change? We have read about some activist networks in urban China trying to raise awareness. Bo Yan : I think that people in urban areas have more knowledge of climate change in a specific sense, at least in theory. People in rural areas are more influenced by extreme weather events. According to the survey, climate change might exert more influence on rural areas than urban areas in China. Though rural dwellers might have more firsthand experience of climate change, their knowledge of it is probably less than those in urban areas. Ce document a été rédigé par la société Codexa (