draft rivers CAP2 Maintaining our catchments Sustaining our future

Transcription

1 draft Northern rivers Catchment Action Plan CAP2 Maintaining our catchments Sustaining our future

2 2 Northern Rivers Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority NORTHERN RIVERS REGIONAL OFFICE Level 3, 49 Victoria St (PO Box 618) GRAFTON NSW 2460 Phone: (02) Fax: (02) Northern Rivers CMA Region Tenterfield QLD Tweed Heads Business hours: 8:30 am to 4:30 pm, Monday to Friday NSW Sydney NSW Grafton Armidale Yamba Wooli Coffs Harbour Lord Howe Island Port Macquarie OTHER OFFICES Business hours: 8:30 am to 4:30 pm, Monday to Friday Alstonville: Shop 27, The Plaza (PO Box 906), ALSTONVILLE NSW 2477 Phone: (02) Armidale: McCarthy Building, Faulkner St (PO Box 739), ARMIDALE NSW 2350 Phone: (02) Coffs Harbour: AMP Centre, 24 Gordon St (PO Box 1417), COFFS HARBOUR NSW 2450 Phone: (02) Acknowledgment of contribution The Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority recognises that we all have a responsibility to secure our natural resources for future generations. We acknowledge and thank all those that have taken on that responsibility and contributed to natural resource management in the past, present and future. The Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority also thanks all those from our natural resource management community that have contributed to the development of the Northern Rivers Catchment Action Plan Your tremendous efforts will have a far-reaching and progressive influence over how we manage our natural resources over the next decade. October Kempsey: The Harrington Building, 41 Belgrave St (PO Box 228), KEMPSEY NSW 2440 Phone: (02) Murwillumbah: 135 Main St (PO Box 678), MURWILLUMBAH NSW 2484 Phone: (02) The Northern Rivers CMA is supported with funding from the Australian Government s Caring for our Country.

3 Northern Rivers Maintaining our catchments Sustaining our future 3 Contents Acknowledgment of contribution 2 Contents 3 List of figures 4 Foreword from the Chair 4 Purpose of the Draft CAP Setting the context 6 Where is the Northern Rivers Region? 7 Why do we need a new catchment action plan? 7 What will CAP2 do? 7 Who is CAP2 for? 8 How did we develop CAP2? 8 Who will implement CAP2? 9 A guide to the Draft CAP CAP2 adopts new approaches and establishes new directions 9 Landscapes, livelihoods and lifestyles 9 A systems-based approach 10 A resilience approach 12 Modelling natural resource health and community capacity 12 Understanding the four elements of community capacity Socio-ecological Landscapes of the Northern Rivers Region 18 Distinct systems 18 Drivers of change 18 General resilience of the SE Landscapes 24 SE Landscape identity The CAP2 strategic framework 26 A logical framework 26 Overview of the framework 26 The importance of engagement, capacity and partnerships 26 Maintaining and improving landscapes, livelihoods and lifestyles and culture 27 An adaptation approach embeds resilience into implementation CAP2 s priority actions 32 A hierarchy of causal relationships 32 Multiple outcomes 32 Our delivery partners 32 Strategy 1: Engage community 33 Strategy 2: Manage landscapes and seascape 35 Strategy 3: Sustain livelihoods 37 Strategy 4: Enrich lifestyles and culture 40 Strategy 5: Manage for change Implementing CAP2 43 A systems and resilience approach requires newimplementation processes 43 Who will implement CAP2? 43 Regional and SE Landscape governance arrangements 43 Principles for our NRM community 45 Targeting our efforts 46 Working with our neighbours Coping with change 47 CAP2 supports active decision-making and continuous planning 47 The CAP2 Adaptation Strategy 50 Evidence systems 51 Regional MERI 51 Aligning stakeholder MERI systems 53 Appendix 1. The CAP2 development process 53 Acronyms 54 List of supporting documentation 55

4 4 Northern Rivers Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority List of figures 1. The Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority Region 7 2. Socio-ecological Landscapes in the Northern Rivers Region Soil health state in each subcatchment of the Northern Rivers Region Biodiversity health state in each subcatchment of the Northern Rivers Region Community capacity state in each subcatchment of the Northern Rivers Region Socio-ecological Districts of the Northern Rivers Region Key guide to the strategic framework CAP2 strategic framework Development and implementation of CA Identifying collaborators and priorities for investment The CAP2 Adaptation Strategy framework 52 Foreword from the Chair The Northern Rivers Catchment Action Plan (CAP) is a statutory, non-regulatory, plan that was developed in 2006 by the Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority (CMA) in consultation with the Northern Rivers community. The CAP aims to protect and restore our natural resources by providing opportunities for all sectors of the community, including business and industry, to participate in sustainable natural resource management (NRM). The Northern Rivers CMA is pleased to present our second 10- year catchment action plan (CAP2) for NRM across the Northern Rivers Region, an area in north-east New South Wales that also includes the Lord Howe Island Group. The new plan will cover the period 2013 to CAP2 is the culmination of a facilitated process of stakeholder engagement over the past 18 months. The development of CAP2 has involved a review of our achievements against the first CAP, and an assessment of opportunities for the future. It has sought the community s response to the values and issues of concern it has for NRM. Through an intergovernmental technical review we have collected and documented science-based evidence of the health and functionality of our natural resources. The Northern Rivers CMA has not developed this document simply for its own activities, but has facilitated a wider process which has resulted in an all-of-government and all-of-community natural resource management plan for the Northern Rivers Region. Central to CAP2 is the idea of building resilience into our natural systems so they have the ability to cope with shocks and changes while retaining essentially the same structure and function. Social factors have always been an important aspect of building ecological sustainability. Indeed, the resilience of human communities and ecological systems are strongly interlinked. The new CAP is based on core strategies to manage landscapes and seascapes, sustain livelihoods and enrich lifestyles. These are supported by additional strategies to engage communities and manage change. The CAP provides strategic direction and priorities for maintaining and improving the health, resilience and productivity of the Region s natural resources, building the capacity of our communities to contribute to these priorities, and building the adaptive capacity of our communities and natural resources to cope with change, shocks and uncertainty. CAP2 identifies Socio-ecological Landscapes within the Region to help deliver the plan. These subregional areas are based primarily around communities of interest and subcatchments. This approach will facilitate the setting of priorities and community engagement.

5 Northern Rivers Maintaining our catchments Sustaining our future 5 The CAP will continue to provide clear direction for the local, state and federal funding of regional NRM activities. The Northern Rivers CMA and other organisations use the CAP to prioritise annual NRM investment programs. This funding supports landholders, community groups, Aboriginal land managers, industry, business and government to undertake activities that contribute to the objectives and targets of the CAP. The Board and staff wish to acknowledge the invaluable input, advice and comments provided by the Northern Rivers NRM community, and especially the key stakeholders within the Region, during the development of this CAP. The Board also acknowledges the dedication and outstanding effort of the Northern Rivers CMA staff who have guided and developed this process. The new plan embodies the growth and maturity of working relationships between NRM stakeholders in the Region over the past six years. This broad ownership establishes a firm basis for effective implementation and attainment of our targets. John Williams Chair Northern Rivers CMA Purpose of the Draft CAP2 The Northern Rivers Catchment Action Plan (CAP2) will establish an all-of-government and all-of-community approach to natural resource management in the Northern Rivers Region. This Draft CAP2 presents what the Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority Board and CAP2 All-of-government Reference Group* think the structure, strategic framework and implementation process for CAP2 might look like. How to comment on the Draft CAP2 We want to know what you think about the Draft CAP2. Please go to our website and participate in the Your say survey and forum at yoursay.northern.cma.nsw.gov.au or send us a letter telling us what you think of the Draft CAP2 (post it to CAP2 Review, Northern Rivers CMA, PO Box 618 Grafton NSW 2460). Anyone with an interest in sustainable natural resource management is invited to contribute to the finalisation of the Northern Rivers CAP2. * The CAP2 All-of-government Reference Group includes over 20 representatives from government agencies at all levels with responsibility for NRM, local and regional NRM groups (including Landcare and Aboriginal land councils), the farming sector and conservation sector. See supporting information # 1.

6 6 Northern Rivers Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority 1. Setting the context Where is the Northern Rivers Region? The Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority (CMA) Region extends from the Queensland border, south to the Camden Haven River and inland to the New England Tableland (see Figure 1). The Region extends seawards three-nautical miles and also includes Lord Howe Island, 600 kilometres east of Port Macquarie. The Northern Rivers Region is known for its outstanding natural beauty and high level of biodiversity. Why do we need a new catchment action plan? The Northern Rivers CMA is one of 13 authorities established in NSW in 2004 under the Catchment Management Authorities Act One of the specific functions of a CMA is to develop a catchment action plan and review it periodically. The catchment action plan helps the CMA to meet its obligations and legislative responsibilities under the Native Vegetation Act 2003 and Native Vegetation Regulation Through the catchment action plan, a CMA engages regional communities in natural resource management priorities and directs investment into activities that restore and protect our natural resources. The Northern Rivers CMA Board developed the first Northern Rivers Catchment Action Plan (Northern Rivers CAP) in 2006 and has overseen its implementation. Catchment action plans across New South Wales are now being reviewed to update the plans and set new priorities for natural resource management over the next 10 years. The Northern Rivers CMA Board is responsible for leading the development of the new Northern Rivers Catchment Action Plan (CAP2), which like the first CAP will be a statutory, non-regulatory plan. What will CAP2 do? CAP2 provides an all-of-government and all-of-community approach to the sustainable management of the Region s natural resources between 2013 and Sustainable natural resource management refers to how we manage our natural resources, with a specific focus on management that ensures that they are sustainable, and can continue to provide for both present and future generations. CAP2 provides the overarching strategic direction for: setting priorities to maintain and improve the health, resilience and productivity of the Region s natural resources building the capacity of our communities to contribute to these priorities building the adaptive capacity of our communities and natural resources to cope with change, shocks and uncertainty. The people of the Northern Rivers Region have a strong connection with the healthy, natural and productive landscapes and seascapes that we live amongst, and the lifestyles, culture and opportunities they create. We rely heavily on the Region s natural resources, and the environmental values and services they provide support our livelihoods and wellbeing, both directly and indirectly. CAP2 focuses on maintaining and improving the Region s landscape, livelihood and lifestyle and cultural values. This focus is captured in CAP2 s 50-year vision. CAP2 s vision: Healthy landscapes and seascapes managed to be sustainable, resilient and productive by viable industries and vibrant local communities Integrating the protection and conservation of our natural resources across the matrix of land- and sea-uses and public and private lands is fundamental to regional sustainability and the protection and maintenance of landscape values. The sustainable use of our natural resources is integral to livelihoods that are based on our natural resource based industries (i.e. agricultural, forestry, fisheries and tourism). These industries must continue to be profitable and continue to produce goods and services (e.g. food, fibre, clean water and nature-based tourism) without degrading the natural resources and catchments on which they rely. The goods and services produced by our landscapes and seascapes sustain our lifestyles and cultures. We live in these landscapes and we draw our identity from them. We enjoy the recreational opportunities and amenity they provide. Our rocky escarpments and gorges, grazing floodplains, outstanding biodiversity, rural landscapes, natural areas, and the beaches, rivers, estuaries and marine areas all provide us with our sense of place and fulfil our aspirations. The Region s natural resources are its soils, biodiversity, rivers, estuaries, wetlands, coasts and marine systems.

7 Northern Rivers Maintaining our catchments Sustaining our future 7 Figure 1. The Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority Region

8 8 Northern Rivers Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority Who is CAP2 for? CAP2 is for everyone in the Northern Rivers Region The Northern Rivers Region community comprises people from diverse backgrounds who have a shared interest in protecting the values of our natural resources. CAP2 is for our NRM community The Northern Rivers Region s natural resource management (NRM) community is the major stakeholder of CAP2. The Region s NRM community is diverse, and includes state and federal government agencies (including public land managers); local governments, utilities and county councils; local and regional networks (e.g. Landcare, Aboriginal land councils, fishers, boaters and traditional owner groups); businesses (e.g. Green Teams, environmental consultants, tourism and primary industries); education and research institutions; and individuals (e.g. volunteers, private landowners and urban dwellers). Our community encompasses the Region s Aboriginal Peoples, including Biripi (Hastings Valley), Bundjalung (Richmond, Tweed and northern Clarence valleys), Yaegl (lower Clarence Valley), Dunghutti (Macleay Valley), Gumbaynggir (Bellinger and southern Clarence valleys), Anaiwan (southern tablelands), Banbai (northern tablelands), and Kamilaroi. We acknowledge these traditional owners of Country and their responsibilities relating to managing Country. Our NRM community also extends beyond our borders. We have a close working association with adjoining regional NRM bodies including Hunter-Central Rivers CMA, Border Rivers-Gwydir CMA, Namoi CMA, and South East Queensland Catchments. An all-of-government (AoG) approach has ensured that CAP2 has been developed in partnership with other government natural resource management agencies [see supporting information # 1]. We are currently identifying key delivery partners that can contribute to CAP2 implementation. These partners will be detailed in the final CAP2. Some stakeholders have given an indication of which actions they might contribute to, and these are identified in Section 5. How did we develop CAP2? Applied lessons learnt from our first CAP Our community has achieved much since the first Northern Rivers CAP was released in Together we have: grown community capacity to undertake NRM improved the health of our natural resources implemented sustainable agricultural practices improved land-use and sea-use planning approaches collaborated and formed new partnerships to deliver NRM improved our knowledge and understanding of natural resources improved technologies for implementing NRM. Over the past 10 years we have also learned how to improve the delivery of NRM in the Region. A detailed evaluation of the Northern Rivers CAP was undertaken to identify areas of improvement needed for CAP2. We evaluated and reviewed the effectiveness, efficiency and impact of CAP programs and critically evaluated CAP targets. The evaluation of the original CAP has informed the new directions taken in CAP2 [see supporting information # 2]. Applied state standards CAP2 has been developed in accordance with the Natural Resource Commission s Standards for quality natural resource management (2005) and CAP development criteria [see supporting information # 3]. As such, CAP2 has been founded on: structured, consultative, collaborative and adaptable planning processes best available information to develop targets and actions for building resilient landscapes and seascapes processes that ensure that CAP2 is a plan for collaborative action and investment between government, community and industry partners. Used an open and inclusive approach We used open and inclusive approaches to consult and engage with key stakeholders and community members to develop CAP2. This approach is fundamental to achieving our long-term vision. Community feedback received on a series of discussion and technical papers has also informed the development of CAP2 [see Appendix 1]. We used this feedback to ensure the communities values, issues and priorities have been captured in CAP2.

9 Northern Rivers Maintaining our catchments Sustaining our future 9 Who will implement CAP2? While the Northern Rivers CMA has overall responsibility for implementing CAP2, government agencies and key stakeholders from our NRM community have overall responsibility for the priority actions in CAP2. CAP2 does not provide a detailed action plan for the community, nor does it describe detailed actions and budgets for local on-ground activities. Rather, it provides a strategic framework for the strategies and priority actions in CAP2 that will guide the development of annual investment and implementation plans and programs which will be tailored to both regional and local scales. An AoG Implementation Group will oversee the implementation of CAP2 with input from local community members and key stakeholders. CAP2 will be implemented through integrated and collaborative partnerships with key stakeholders, including community groups. Section 6 details the implementation processes. A guide to the Draft CAP2 Section 1 provides an introduction to the purpose, audience, implementation and development process for CAP2. Section 2 provides a background to CAP2 s new directions, introduces the four Northern Rivers Region Socio-ecological Landscapes, and explains our approach to resilience to change as a focus for the CAP2 strategic framework presented in Section 4. Section 3 provides a profile on each Socio-ecological Landscape highlighting the characteristics, values, threats and trends from landscape, livelihood and lifestyle and culture and driver perspectives. Section 4 introduces the CAP2 strategic framework, provides an explanation of the importance of engagement, partnerships and capacity building; our approach to adaptive governance and management; and what we need to do to maintain and improve our landscape, livelihood and lifestyle and cultural values. 2. CAP2 adopts new approaches and establishes new directions CAP2 has adopted a number of new approaches and directions including: a focus on maintaining and improving the Region s landscape, livelihood and lifestyle and cultural values a socio-ecological systems approach (by identifying areas within which communities associate, and tailoring NRM activities to suit) a resilience approach (by looking at influences that can transform our socio-ecological systems and how to ensure resilience to change) using mapping and modelling to more fully understand the dynamics of community capacity and natural resource health (by mapping community capacity to undertake NRM activities and natural resource health to help understand system dynamics and inform the setting of priorities). Landscapes, livelihoods and lifestyles CAP2 focuses on maintaining and improving the Region s landscape (environmental), livelihood (economic) and lifestyle and cultural (social) NRM values. These broad values encapsulate a number of specific attributes (see Table 1). Landscape values reflect natural resource function and health, what these resources can provide, and recognise that these resources are the key components of functioning landscapes and seascapes. Livelihood values reflect how people make a living, and so have an economic basis. Lifestyle and cultural values reflect more intrinsic values, including community identity, landscape amenity, community needs and aspirations, and sense of place. Section 5 provides the strategic framework that underpins CAP2 the goals, strategies, priority actions and targets. Section 6 provides an overview of the CAP2 implementation processes. Section 7 provides an overview of the CAP2 Adaptation Strategy that we will put in place to ensure that CAP2 is adaptive to change.

10 10 Northern Rivers Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority Table 1. Attributes of Socio-ecological Landscape values in the Northern Rivers Region Value Attributes Landscape natural resource supply natural resource health soils biodiversity rivers wetlands estuaries coasts marine Livelihood major natural resource based industries: dairy cropping grazing horticulture conservation timber fishing and aquaculture tourism Lifestyle and recreation culture amenity cultural identity education A systems-based approach There has been a fundamental shift in our approach to NRM in the Region over the last 30 years. We have evolved from focussing on individual threats in the late 1980s (e.g. vegetation loss and soil erosion), to more integrated catchment management in the 1990s (e.g. biodiversity decline, acid sulphate soils and water quality), to a more holistic focus on providing ecosystem services in the early 2000s (e.g. maintaining clean water, productive soils and habitat connectivity). A systems-based approach requires an understanding of the complex and dynamic relationships between people and the natural environments in which they work and live, and the ways we can maintain and improve the resilience of these systems to change so that they continue to deliver ecosystem services in an ever-changing world. CAP2 responds to this new focus in NRM by adopting a systemsbased approach, moving us away from our traditional natural resource silos and compartmentalised thinking. Socio-ecological Landscapes In CAP2 our focus is on social-ecological systems: those systems that encompass areas with consistent and unique combinations of social and ecological characteristics (e.g. social structure and dynamics, land form, vegetation and land uses). Socio-ecological systems generally share more key characteristics compared with adjacent areas, and thus can be used as a basis for future planning, engagement, decisionmaking and on-ground action. We have identified four landscape-scale socio-ecological systems or Socio-ecological Landscapes (SE Landscapes) in the Northern Rivers Region. These are: Northern, Central, Southern (including Lord Howe Island) and New England Tableland (see Figure 2). These landscapes encompass the seascapes in the Region (i.e. waters out to three-nautical miles). We have also identified smaller-scale Socio-ecological Districts (SE Districts) that sit within these broader Landscapes. Section 3 describes these Landscapes and Districts in more detail and supporting information # 4 describes how they were identified. Integral to these Socio-ecological Landscapes are Aboriginal cultural landscapes which contain values that are significant to Aboriginal Peoples (e.g. resources, places, knowledge, stories, objects and landscapes). These Socio-ecological Landscapes will make it easier to implement NRM activities that have the most relevance to communities. Now our focus is on understanding whole systems. These systems can be social, environmental or economic in nature, and they can be a combination of any or all of these components. They can also be defined at multiple scales (e.g. bioregion, region, landscape or property). As such, a system can be a regional community, small town, catchment, subcatchment, farm, forest or wetland.

11 Northern Rivers Maintaining our catchments Sustaining our future 11 Figure 2. Socio-ecological Landscapes in the Northern Rivers Region

12 12 Northern Rivers Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority A resilience approach Resilience is a characteristic of a system. Resilience relates to a system s ability to cope with changes and shocks (be they social, economic or environmental) while retaining essentially the same structure and function. A resilience approach focuses on understanding the dynamics and connections between people and their natural environment and how these connections change in response to each other and to external influences such as drivers and shocks and the local threats these create. Drivers of change and shocks create threats Drivers of change and shocks originate from outside of the Region. Drivers are unpredictable, slow, pushing forces that we have little control over (e.g. climate change). Shocks are a fastacting form of drivers, with sudden unpredictable forces that we have little control over (e.g. floods, bushfires, global financial crisis etc). There are a suite of drivers that have the potential to influence the overall resilience of the Region (see Table 2). Drivers create local threats that act more quickly and directly on our landscape, livelihood and lifestyle values. Due to their nature, we can t influence drivers directly we can only adapt to the threats they create or influence them indirectly by managing these threats. In response, CAP2 has developed management interventions that deal with local threats created by drivers. Drivers are complex in their origins; they interact, and are in a constant state of near-unpredictable change. They operate differently and to varying degrees across our Socio-ecological Landscapes and create different issues across the Region. Embracing a new systems-based approach grounded in a resilience framework allows us to deal with and manage for this uncertainty. We do not fully understand the dynamics of drivers, and predicting how drivers can influence our systems is difficult. Nevertheless, CAP2 considers the impact of these drivers and how they influence the landscape, livelihood and lifestyle and cultural values of the Northern Rivers Region. In the 10 years since the catchment blueprints and the first CAP were developed, the Region has been impacted by various drivers and the threats they create (see Table 2). These have shaped and will continue to shape the Region s social, environmental and economic structure. Identifying the impacts of these drivers will allow us to accommodate and ensure resilience by being very specific when we develop and deliver our NRM activities. Modelling natural resource health and community capacity Understanding systems Building or maintaining the resilience of our SE Landscapes and Districts requires an understanding of how the Region s systems function, and their limits to absorb disturbances before they change their identity or state. An AoG panel of technical experts developed state and transition models to better understand the complexity, function and limits of the Region s environmental, economic and social systems. State refers to the current status of a system, be it the current health of a natural resource (e.g. most or least desirable), or a community s current capacity to undertake NRM (e.g. most or least constrained). Transition refers to the local threats that push a system from a more desirable state to a less desirable state, and the NRM priority actions (i.e. management interventions) that push the system back the other way. These state and transition models explore and define the characteristics of: the health dynamics of our natural resources (i.e. soils, biodiversity, rivers, wetlands, estuaries, coasts and marine resources) in each of the Region s 187 subcatchments the dynamics of the community s capacity to undertake NRM activity with respect to knowledge, skills, social capital and resources, in each of the Region s 187 subcatchments. Mapping capacity and health states Regional maps of the state of natural resource health and community capacity at a subcatchment scale were developed using the state and transition models and available spatial information. These maps inform the CAP2 targets and implementation processes described in sections 5 and 6 respectively. The soil and biodiversity health maps (as examples of natural resource maps) and community capacity map are shown in Figure 3, Figure 4 and Figure 5 respectively. These maps provide relative estimates of community capacity and natural resource health that will be interpreted and used to develop priorities at property, subcatchment, SE Landscape and regional scales. Capacity and health estimates will be critical inputs into the development of regional and SE Landscape NRM priorities. They will help us determine where to invest for the best health gains; what capacity we need to invest in to maintain current capacity; and where we need to improve capacity.

13 Northern Rivers Maintaining our catchments Sustaining our future 13 Table 2. Drivers of change influencing the Northern Rivers Region Driver Population demographics Farm viability (a function of 4 components) Industry viability Community values and expectations Climate change and variability Invasive species Infrastructure and technology Government directions and policies Nature of influence on system Changes in the size, growth rate, density and distribution of populations can influence the way that a community functions. These changes influence a community s workforce capacity, social networks, sense of place and successional planning. Two examples of how extremes in population change can influence the way community functions include: an increase in the size of Tweed Heads and Coffs Harbour because of urban settlement and an influx of retirees and tree and sea changers; and a decrease in the size of Old Bonalbo because of declining agriculture. 1. Farmer succession: Changes in ownership away from the tradition of family farms is occurring because younger people are leaving the Region and sons and daughters are not replacing their retiring farmer fathers (e.g. cattle farmers on the tablelands). New farm owners don t necessarily come from the Region, or have knowledge of or a sense of attachment to the Region or local area. Farm aggregation can be the result of this lack of succession (see below). 2. Farm aggregation: Changes in land ownership brought about by the purchase of land by corporations or locals which subsequently results in fewer, larger, multiple-property farms being managed as single businesses by fewer farmers. Farm aggregation is made possible by improved farming practices (fewer people, more mechanisation) which bring efficiencies and economies of scale. Farm aggregation is happening on the tablelands and on the coasts (e.g. dairy). 3. Land-use diversification and intensification: Changes in land use are brought about, for example, by urban expansion, peri-urban development, or shifts towards more intensive and diverse production (e.g. blueberries, macadamias and coffee). These changes can significantly shift the social, economic and environmental base of an area (e.g. loss of fishing in Richmond River). Diversification spreads the risk through the growing of several products (e.g. vegetables, vineyards and grazing), or embarking on multiple enterprises that focus not only on production but also other sectors (e.g. dairy processing, manufacturing and marketing, or farm tourism). Changing land use generates competition for land, increases land prices, changes social and community structure (e.g. a shift in emphasis from production/livelihood towards lifestyle values), and changes how natural resources are managed, including how we manage new and emerging threats. 4. Market forces: The viability of small farms, small business enterprises and natural resource based industries is dependent on traditional agricultural commodities driven by market forces. Market forces include commodity price changes, changes in market policy, the day-to-day costs of running a farm (e.g. fuel, fertiliser and labour costs), and changes in land values. The viability of natural resource based industries is reliant on the adequate supply and security of resources and a market that drives demand. The slow decline in private native forestry is an example where industry viability has declined in response to a reduction in wood supply, reforms to the industry and changes to harvesting practices. Community values and expectations have a significant influence over the structure of communities, businesses and how natural resources are used. People have a sense of how they want their community to be, and to varying degrees will defend that sense of identity and can subsequently significantly influence activities within their community. The recent rallying of communities to oppose coal seam gas extraction in the far north coast is a good example of communities expressing their expectations/aspirations for extractive industries in their area. Changes and extremes in climate can have a devastating impact on natural resources. Climate change and increased climate variability in the Region are likely to result in more and increased intensity floods, disease outbreaks, storms, droughts and fires. Predicted impacts include changes to agricultural industries, and changes in the types and densities of pests and weeds. New invasive species (i.e. weeds and pest animals) and disease introduced from outside of an area change the function and productive capacity of natural systems. Examples include cane toads, cats claw and collatie grass. Improvements in infrastructure and technology such as road networks and the National Broadband Network will increase people s access to places of work and leisure, information, and critical social resources such as social media. This will increase the speed, efficiency and ease with which people can conduct business, recreate and communicate with others in and outside of the Region. Changes in government direction and policy can have a significant impact on responsibilities and directions for managing our natural resources. The introduction of the carbon market is an example where a shift in government policy has had an impact on options for managing land at a local scale.

14 14 Northern Rivers Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority Identifying local threats Local threats are ultimately the result of drivers of change acting on the Region. The threats broadly comprise habitat loss, habitat degradation, invasive species, and climate change and variability. The threats that our SE Landscapes experience are described more fully in individual state and transition models [see supporting information # 5]. Developing priority actions Priority actions are designed to keep our systems within safe operating limits. They are actions that are the most appropriate to prevent a system from crossing over a threshold from a more desirable to a less desirable health state, or in the case of community capacity, from a least constrained to a more constrained capacity state. These priority actions are included within the strategic framework presented in Section 5. For the first time we have been able to map community capacity across the Region. Our deeper understanding of the four capacity elements will inform which capacity building activities to invest in and where to invest. Capacity building will ultimately improve the resilience of communities to future change. Aboriginal people have a cultural, spiritual, social and economic connection to Country and its natural resources. They have the responsibility of looking after their cultural landscapes and seascapes. Aboriginal people have special knowledge, rights and interests in the way natural resources are managed and used. As such, CAP2 also identifies Aboriginal community capacity across the Region which will inform which capacity building activities to invest in and where to invest. Ongoing refinement and testing of the assumptions made in the development of our state and transition models (and in particular our understanding of thresholds) will be a feature in the CAP2 Adaptation Strategy discussed in Section 7. All state and transition models and health and capacity maps developed for the Northern Rivers Region are included in supporting information # 5 (models) and # 6 (maps). For higher resolution maps see supporting information # 7, and for a more detailed description of how capacity maps and resource health maps were developed see supporting information # 8. Understanding the four elements of community capacity Community capacity is the degree to which a community can undertake best practice NRM activities. Maintaining and improving the capacity of our NRM community to carry out onground works is a pillar of CAP2 implementation. In CAP2 we recognise four elements that collectively give a measure of capacity. Knowledge: an awareness and understanding of NRM principles and issues Skills: practical experience in NRM activities Social capital: family, community, other social networks and support services Resources: time, money and opportunity. Communities with a high level of capacity have the knowledge, skills, social capital and resources to undertake NRM activities efficiently and effectively.

15 Northern Rivers Maintaining our catchments Sustaining our future 15 Figure 3. Soil health state in each subcatchment of the Northern Rivers Region

16 16 Northern Rivers Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority Figure 4. Biodiversity health state in each subcatchment of the Northern Rivers Region

17 Northern Rivers Maintaining our catchments Sustaining our future 17 Figure 5. Community capacity state in each subcatchment of the Northern Rivers Region

18 18 Northern Rivers Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority 3. Socio-ecological Landscapes of the Northern Rivers Region Distinct systems There are two fundamentally distinct socio-ecological systems in the Northern Rivers Region: the tablelands and coastal lands. The two systems have markedly different social and ecological characteristics, and they are physically separated by a north south running escarpment. This escarpment serves as a divide between the cool, dry woodland highlands and the warm, wet coastal lowlands; a divide between the stable, historic towns of the New England and the expanding towns, seaside villages and ports along the coastal fringe; a divide between traditional, grazing industries and new intensive horticultural industries; and a divide between the elevated upper reaches of the Region s nine major rivers and their floodplains and estuaries on the coast. The New England Tableland SE Landscape encompasses the whole of the Northern Tableland, and straddles the Northern Rivers and the Borders Rivers-Gwydir CMA regions and parts of Namoi CMA. While the tablelands are relatively homogenous at the subregional scale, within the coastal area there are three distinct socio-ecological systems: the Northern, Central and Southern SE Landscapes (or Coastal Landscapes ). Like the New England Tableland SE Landscape, these Coastal Landscapes are defined predominantly through proximity and accessibility of communities and townships within them. They are defined by east west physical barriers of forests that separate them, and the roads that provide linkages/connections within them. Road movement between the Coastal Landscapes is largely restricted to the eastern seaboard. The four SE Landscapes in the Region were identified by local communities [see supporting information # 9]. In practice, the boundaries between our Socio-ecological Landscapes are fuzzy and overlapping. It is impossible, and indeed undesirable, to define hard lines between SE Landscapes. Instead, we have identified areas that generally share more key characteristics compared with adjacent areas. We acknowledge there are commonalities between different Landscapes, particularly the three coastal landscapes, and also that there are significant differences in socio-ecological characteristics within individual SE Landscapes. As such, a number of Socio-ecological Districts provide a finer scale of variation within each SE Landscape (see Figure 6). The 10 SE Districts and their local communities have their own unique suite of landscape, livelihood, lifestyle and cultural values which gives them their own identity. The SE Landscapes and Districts provide a meaningful and locally relevant framework for delivering this community-based CAP2. CAP2 tailors management interventions and on-ground activities to each SE Landscape or SE District (see Section 6). Each SE Landscape is influenced by the drivers of change in different and complex ways. This section briefly considers the characteristics of each SE Landscape from a landscape, livelihood and lifestyle perspective. The differences in characteristics and identity are often subtle and difficult to describe because of their complexity and interactions. Understanding their characteristics will be an ongoing priority action as part of CAP2 implementation. The information that supports the breakdown of the identity of our SE Landscapes is found in supporting information # 9. Drivers of change Current understanding The potential influence of drivers of change (see Table 2 in Section 2) on SE Landscape identity over the life of CAP2 is presented in Table 3. This assessment is based on the current trends in drivers and the intensity of their influence. Ongoing assessment will enhance our understanding of the relationships within and between drivers, and the influences they have on SE Landscape identity. This will in turn inform NRM in the Northern Rivers Region. The Adaptation Strategy will provide the mechanism for this learning and adaptation process. The impacts of these drivers of change are ultimately addressed by the strategies and priority actions detailed in Section 5. Our changing population The Northern Rivers Region is characterised by highly variable rates of population growth and decline. Growth is occurring, but mostly in the larger cities and towns and along the coast. The inland coastal and tableland areas are more sparsely populated and are stable to declining in certain areas. Some rural centres and their surrounds are growing as landholders move from their farms into towns. The Region s population is also ageing as more retirees move to the Region, younger people leave and farmers retire. We are slowly losing a wealth of experience in dealing with the vagaries of social, economic and environmental change experience that is fundamental to understanding the sustainability needs of our future generations. Our NRM workforce is changing as we place more reliance on volunteers to deliver our NRM activities.

19 Northern Rivers Maintaining our catchments Sustaining our future 19 Lifestylers make a difference People are moving to the Coastal Landscapes, primarily for lifestyle reasons. These lifestylers move to enjoy the Region s amenity its climate, the coastal way of life, the rich diversity of people and cultures, our natural places and wilderness areas. Newcomers tend to move into our major towns and satellite towns, or to peri-urban areas. As small block holders, they are more concentrated on our floodplains and often supplement income with off-farm employment in one of the regional centres. Lifestylers are often drawn into local NRM activity through their desire to be involved in landscape conservation, and so have an important part to play in the Region s NRM efforts. Population growth, while creating market demand, may also result in crowding, urban expansion and development which can all increase competition for prime agricultural land and natural resources. This competition has increased land prices, which has subsequently contributed to a shift in the viability of some agricultural enterprises. Land and sea use is changing Over the past three decades the Region has been undergoing a significant employment transition, from its traditional agricultural base including beef cattle grazing, fine wool production, dairy farming, forestry, bananas and sugar and feed crop industries to high levels of employment in health and community services, tourism and hospitality, education, retail and construction. Some light manufacturing and food processing industries, horticulture, mining, and conservation and tourism industries/sectors are increasing in the coastal areas. The NRM and conservation industries are becoming large employers and significant contributors to the regional economy in their own right. Declining terms of trade in agriculture and an ageing farmer base have seen a steady decline in employment in the sector. Employment is highest in the inland parts of the Coastal Landscapes, and on the New England Tableland where it is steady or growing very slowly. The New England Tableland SE Landscape, while more traditional in its approach, is also innovative. The tablelands predominantly support beef and sheep grazing and fine wool production, with limited cropping. New jobs will be required to accommodate our growing regional population, but it is not anticipated that the agriculture sector will provide opportunities for large-scale job creation in the near to mid future. The Region has a high demand for fresh seafood, however, wild-caught products are impacted by various factors that threaten the commercial fishing industry, including industry rationalisation, declining stocks, competing imports, diesel costs and habitat degradation. Commercial estuarine and ocean fisheries are a major sector, and aquaculture is experiencing limited growth. Growth will have many forms New government policies and new industries are set to have a significant influence on the Region s communities and natural resources. The Far North Coast and Mid North Coast Regional Strategies outline priority areas for growth and settlement across the Region until Although seeking to minimise impacts, this growth will no doubt affect the natural and production environments of the Northern Rivers Region. Carbon farming is a new industry for the Region but its success is dependent on favourable market conditions. Similarly, other new and emerging industries (e.g. wind farms and coal seam gas) also have the capacity to generate significant markets, but the exploitation of these will occur in the face of significant concern and scrutiny from the Northern Rivers NRM community. Producers are adapting Changes to agricultural viability are driving shifts in traditional framing practices. Difficult terms of trade, the vagaries of commodity prices, increasing land prices, the day-to-day costs of running a farm and the advantages that come with economies of scale are resulting in: farm aggregation, which brings efficiencies and economies of scale farming more intensively, in an effort to maximise returns enterprise diversification, which spreads the risk diminishing property sizes, primarily on the coast and where there is an increase in the number of lifestylers occupying blocks. Infrastructure influences population change Infrastructure development will have a significant impact on natural resources, population growth, transport costs and farm/ industry viability of the Region over the next decade. Ease of access and distance from major population centres (e.g. Brisbane and Sydney) plays a large part in explaining the differences in the identities of the three Coastal Landscapes. The Northern SE Landscape has the greatest potential influence from population growth and development because of its close proximity to Brisbane and the Gold Coast. The north-east corner of the State is an attractive option for Queenslanders looking to move for lifestyle reasons. The Northern Landscape also has the lowest transport to market costs for primary industries. These are significant markets and so the area is a focus for establishing new farming enterprises. With this comes farm diversification and intensification, however, this brings competition for land, increasing land prices, and impacts on natural resources and amenity.

20 20 Northern Rivers Northern Rivers Catchment Management Authority The Coastal Landscapes are at different points along a growth continuum. While the Central and Southern SE Landscapes are also growing, the rate at which they are growing is less than that of the Northern Landscape. They are in transition towards an SE Landscape identity that might have similar characteristics to that of the Northern Landscape. In terms of development, the Northern Landscape is quite possibly a couple of decades ahead of the Central landscape, which is in turn ahead of the Southern Landscape. The ongoing upgrade to the Region s road networks will make it significantly easier for people to move in, around, and out of the Region. Major improvements to transport corridors between Sydney and Brisbane are completed, planned or underway. These will undoubtedly facilitate the movement of lifestylers, primary producers and other business sectors to the Region, and into the Central and Southern Landscapes. Growth of local and regional economies along this route will follow. The topography of the hinterland and escarpment areas precludes the development of major highways and roads that would allow high speed travel and/or public transport. This limits connectivity with the coastal hinterlands and tablelands. There are only a very few places in the Region where Coastal Landscapes are connected by major roads to the New England Tableland SE Landscape (see Figure 1). The installation of the National Broadband Network has commenced in Coffs Harbour, and will commence in Grafton in around three years time. The Network is currently available in Armidale. This technology will allow for a faster and more efficient information exchange; allowing greater business and social networking. The NBN will be a significant drawcard for those wanting to run a business away from a major regional centre. Community capacity varies Community capacity to undertake on-ground NRM activities (e.g. weed removal, riverbank restoration etc.) is critical to maintaining the resilience of natural resources. Our community capacity and natural resource health maps (see Figures 3, 4 and 5 and also supporting information # 6) capture the patchy distribution of capacity across the Region and within the four SE Landscapes. The Northern, Central and Southern SE Landscapes have relatively higher overall capacity compared with that of the New England Tableland Landscape. Enhancing the capacity of local communities to cope with change is fundamental to influencing the transformation of SE Landscape identity. Declining natural resource health The character of the Northern Rivers Region has evolved in response to the environmental and economic development influences over the past 150 years. From the early timber getting and agricultural beginnings to the more recent alternative lifestylers and sea/tree changers, the environment has always been a major influence on the communities and economy of the Region. The Northern Rivers Region is the most biologically diverse region in New South Wales and the third most diverse in Australia. We have a significant attraction to our ionic natural areas. For the Northern SE Landscape this includes: Mt Warning caldera and Border Ranges supporting World Heritage rainforest and the volcanic ranges and plateaus supporting remnants of the Big Scrub rainforest major river basins including the Tweed, Brunswick, Richmond and upper Clarence Cape Byron Marine Park. For the Central SE Landscape our ionic natural areas include: one of the few places where the Great Dividing Range and Great Escarpment connect to the coastal plain, and including the Dorrigo Plateau and associated World Heritage rainforest, and New England Wilderness and rich basaltic soils major river systems including the Lower Clarence (the largest system in coastal NSW), and the Bellinger/Kalang system Solitary Islands Marine Park. For the Southern SE Landscape our ionic natural areas include: Limeburners Wilderness Area on the coast north of Port Macquarie the only coastal wilderness area in the Region Werrikimbe and Oxley Wild Rivers wilderness areas and other reserved areas contributing to a third of Landscape being in the protected area network Lord Howe Island Marine Park. For the Tableland SE Landscape our ionic natural areas include: montane lakes and lagoons, including Little Llangothlin (RAMSAR wetland) rolling woodland hills and pockets of productive, basaltic agricultural landscapes.