MCYFS The agrometeorological system of the EC: present and future

Transcription

1 Institute for Protection and Security of the Citizen Wageningen 19 October WIMEK workshop on Earth Observation and crop growth modeling 1 MCYFS The agrometeorological system of the EC: present and future PhD.. Fabio Micale Joint Research Centre (JRC) The European Commission s Research-Based Policy Support Organisation

2 Wageningen 19 October WIMEK workshop on Earth Observation and crop growth modeling 2 Why do we need an European agrometeorological system?

3 Novara on 27/ June th International Temperate Rice Conference 3 Wageningen 19 October WIMEK workshop on Earth Observation and crop growth modeling For a better development, implementation and monitoring of the Common Agriculture Policy the EC DG-Agriculture needs : FORECAST on EU CROPS PRODUCTION on this purpose MARS-STAT set up a system to provide this information supporting EC policy making process on stocks, trade and use of CAP budget

4 Novara on 27/ June th International Temperate Rice Conference 4 Wageningen 19 October WIMEK workshop on Earth Observation and crop growth modeling Court of of Auditors European Parliament Council of of Ministers Committee of of the Regions Court of of Justice European Commission Commissioner for Research Commissioner for Research Economic and Social Committee DG ENTR DG ENV DG INFSO DG RTD DG JRC DG AGRI EUROSTAT DG SANCO DG RELEX ECHO EI EI IES IES IRMM IPSC IHCP ITU ITU IPTS AGRICULTURE Unit AGRICULTURE Unit

5 CROPS YIELD UNCERTAINTY Wageningen 19 October WIMEK workshop on Earth Observation and crop growth modeling 5 AND IF IT GETS ENOUGH RAIN, AND SUN, AND IF IT ISN'T KILLED BY HAIL, AND IF IT ISN T DAMAGED BY FROST, AND IF WE CAN GET IT OFF BEFORE IT S COVERED BY SNOW, AND IF WE GET IT TO THE ELEVATORS, AND IF THE TRAINS ARE RUNNING, AND IF THE GRAIN HANDLERS AREN T IN STRIKE, AND IF

6 MARS-STAT STAT OBJECTIVES Novara on 27/ June th International Temperate Rice Conference 6 Wageningen 19 October WIMEK workshop on Earth Observation and crop growth modeling PRODUCTION = YIELDS * ACREAGE Early forecast crop yields M C Y F S ars rop ield orecasting ystem Precise Crop Area Estimates Regional Inventories Rapid estimates

7 Novara on 27/ June th International Temperate Rice Conference 7 Wageningen 19 October WIMEK workshop on Earth Observation and crop growth modeling

8 Novara on 27/ June th International Temperate Rice Conference 8 Wageningen 19 October WIMEK workshop on Earth Observation and crop growth modeling Current status

9 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling MCYFS 9 Meteorological Mixed system: Deterministic Statistical Supervised information Standard elaborations MCYFS: Methodological approach Agrometeo information On-demand elaboration (extreme events & critical condition) Analysts Statistical information Yield estimate

10 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 10 MCYFS: Flux of information Deterministic Statistical WOFOST LINGRA WARM

11 T/ha Spain - Soft Wheat Yield - Area Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop 4.00 Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 11 T/ha 4,00 3,80 3,60 Spain - Soft Wheat 3.60 Yield - Area 3.40 YIELD YIELD MARSy Linear (YIELD) 3,40 3,20 3,00 Linear (YIELD) , ,60 2,40 2,20 2,00 1,80 1,60 1,40 1, y = 0,0567x + 1,4858 R 2 = 0, Regression: Yield f (trend; crop indicators) y = x R 2 = Yield Forecast

12 MCYFS: Areas of interest Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 12 EU-27 Candidates Countries Maghreb Russia (European part) Ukraine Belorussia

13 MCYFS: Areas of interest Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling simulated crops: Wheat Barley Maize Rice (WARM model) Sunflower Rapeseed Sugar Beet Potato Field Beans Pastures (LINGRA model)

14 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 14 Future improvements

15 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 15 Short term New areas of interest New spatial resolution New input meteo data source New methodological approach New tools available New components New biological process Medium term New software approach

16 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 16 New areas of interest

17 Novara on 27/ June th International Temperate Rice Conference 17 Wageningen 19 October WIMEK workshop on Earth Observation and crop growth modeling

18 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 18 New spatial resolution

19 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 19 25x 25 km regular mesh According to new INSPIRE standard projection

20 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 20 New input meteo data

21 MCYFS: Meteorological data Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 21 Meteorological stations network Daily data at station level Present status: ~ 4923 still active ~ 2400 regularly received, in 59 countries ~1500 in the EU27 countries (60%) Reference period (long term average) (32 years) Future : ~ 4700 regularly received ~ 65% in EU27 Longer time series (long term average):

22 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 22 Analysis Deterministic forecasts EPS forecast Monthly forecasts Seasonal forecasts New ERA40 ERA-Interim

23 Meteorological infrastructure Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 23 Daily delivery Data quality check procedure External External Users Users International Meteo-stations Network DB METEO DB GRID Mapping procedure WEB Already approached within projects: ASEMARS EMSEMBLES Daily delivery Interpolation Procedure (25x25 km) Downscaling Procedure (25x25 km) DB ECMWF Analysis DB ECMWF Forecast Legend: Current flux Future flux other other MCYFS MCYFS procedures procedures Internal Internal Users Users

24 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 24 New methodological approach

25 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 25 Sowing Harvest Crop development Crop simulations Statistical Analysis Current method Observed meteo data Crop simulations Yield estimation New method Observed meteo data Seasonal weather forec.

26 MCYFS: Numerical Meteorological Data Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 26 EPS- Seasonal Ensemble weather predictions: 51 scenarios Ensemble of Simulated Yields: 51 yield forecasts JRC crop models

27 LEVEL 3 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 27 Histogram of ENSEMBLES Level 3 predictions for wheat for 1987 in Italy Trend Observed yield 120% 100% Frequency Intervals 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

28 ENSEMBLES ensemble based predictions of climate changes and their impacts Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 28 Funded by the European Commission ( ), ENSEMBLES is a project developed to quantify the uncertainty in long-term predictions of climate change. ENSEMBLES uses the collective expertise of 66 institutes to produce a reliable quantitative risk assessment of long-term climate change and its impacts. Particular emphasis is given to probable future changes in climate extremes, including storminess, intense rainfall, prolonged drought, and potential climate shocks such as failure of Robust the Gulf science Stream. for policy making

29 LEVEL 3 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 29 Final yield at national level as best estimated with JRC-ENS vs. OFFICIAL STATISTICS

30 LEVEL 2 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 30 All members ( model) grouped and averaged on GRIDS Potential Storage Organs 8500 Water Limited Storage Organs JRC-ENS cnrm crfc lody scnr scwf smpi ukmo JRC-ENS cnrm crfc lody scnr scwf smpi ukmo JRC-MARS JRC-MARS The best: CNRM, LODY The best: SMPI

31 LEVEL 1 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 31 Average Tmax Average Tmin

32 LEVEL 1 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 32 Cumulated rain

33 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 33 New tools

34 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 34 SANPLAT: sensitivity Analysis platform CALPLAT: calibration platform

35 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 35 Methods for sensitivity analysis 1. Morris Method 2. (E)FAST (Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test) 3. Sobol Method 4. Latin Hypercube Sampling 5. Quasi-Random LpTau 6. Random

36 Novara on 27/ June th International Temperate Rice Conference 36 Wageningen 19 October WIMEK workshop on Earth Observation and crop growth modeling

37 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 37 New components

38 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 38 New Rice crop model New LEVEL 3 New Soil Water Balance Crops masks

39 Rice model Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 39

40 Rice model Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 40

41 LEVEL 3 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 41 Objectives of new LEVEL 3 Allow to select any meteo/crop/rs parameter individually as indicator in the regression analysis; The implementation of automatic multiregressive approaches Automatic performances check on the regression models obtained The inclusion of discriminant analysis Complete the implementation of the scenario analysis by adding the whole set of intermediate and final parameters available from CGMS, the satellite indicators Implement the algorithm for the prediction calculations.

42 Soil water balance Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 42 Effective rainfall, runoff, surface storage Multi-dimensional approach Soil profile schematization Soil characterization (e.g. pf-curve, K-h relationship, field capacity, wilting point) Water vertical/horizontal flows and soil moisture redistribution Method for calculating drought and water excess effects Initial water content Soil moisture content

43 CROP MASK at GRID level Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 43 soft wheat durum wheat wheat total barley rye grain maize rape sunflower potato sugarbeet rice use CLC 2000 data to spatially distribute official statistical data about crop acreages into CGMS grids (implicitly natural condition considered). GRID 50 km NUTS II statistics GRID 50 km NUTS III statistics GRID 25 km Homogeneous distribution of each crop over the arable land in each NUTS region Robust is science assumed for policy in making this approach

44 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 44 Example: Rice, Grassland and Maize in Northern Italy 29 Crops (as % per 1km 2 Pixel) Area covered: EU15 Reference Year: 2000 Consistent with FSS Regional Crop Statistics, mainly NUTS3 for several countries NUTS2 Consistent with the European Reference Grid and Coordinate Reference System proposed under INSPIRE

45 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 45 New biological processes

46 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 46 Rice radiation use efficiency Biotic injuries Rice blast disease (brusone) Abiotic injuries Rice spikelet's sterility (cold shocks) Frost leaves injuries

47 TOPFERT Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 47 Rice radiation use efficiency - TOPFERT Use of RS data (NDVI from MODIS) and correlation to nitrogen contents Model error higher than 7 % Rice fields WARM configuration Standard TOPFERT

48 Spikelets sterility Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 48 Percentage of spikelet sterility due to pre-flowering cold shocks more than 14

49 BLAST disease Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling Number of days characterized by high risk of BLAST disease infection 5-year average Nuts2_azm_v4_eu25.shp Rice.shp 0 days between 1 and 2 days between 3 and 5 days between 6 and 10 days more than 11 days

50 Frost Risk monitoring MOCA area: PL_R03; Grid Nr.: 64070; Sown on: 274 (DOY) Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling Hardening index Hardening index /8/02 MOCA area: PL_R03; Grid Nr.: 64070; Sown on: 274 (DOY) MOCA area: PL_R03; Grid Nr.: 64070; Sown on: 274 (DOY) /8/03 1/9/02 1/9/03 1/10/02 1/10/03 1/11/02 1/11/03 1/12/02 1/12/03 DOY 1/1/03 HI DOY CKcold HI 1/1/04 CKcold 1/2/03 1/2/04 1/3/03 1/3/04 1/4/03 1/4/ CKcold (affecting leaves) CKcold (affecting leaves) Temperature Temperature at at crown crown level level (oc) (oc) /8/03 1/8/ /9/03 1/9/02 1/10/03 1/10/02 1/11/03 1/11/02 1/12/03 1/12/02 DOY DOY 1/1/04 1/1/03 1/2/04 1/2/03 1/3/04 1/3/03 1/4/04 1/4/03 TEMPCN TEMPCN TEMPCR TEMPCR TEMPCX TEMPCX TempKILL TempKILL ISTAGE Winter : : NO FROST RISK! (Poland (Poland Grid: Grid: 64070) 64070) ISTAGE

51 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 51 New software approach

52 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 52 Modularity Plug-in, plug-out of components Multi-models Plug-in, plug-out different crops models DB ontology Simplify modularity and multi-model approach

53 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 53 Conclusions System improvements Large investments for continuous improvements Stimulation and support of researchers to work on new research/action devoted to specific improvements Support on dissemination (e.g.: regional implementation) Continuous support of EC - CAP More emphasis on risks assessment (agri-insurance) More emphasis on Climate Change issue

54 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 54 Thank for your attention

55 Areas of interest Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 55

56 Novara Wageningen on 27/ June 19 October th International 1 WIMEK Temperate workshop Rice on Earth Conference Observation and crop growth modeling 56 AGRIFISH Unit J. J. Delincé Secretary Secretary Support Support MARS PAC Sector MARS STAT Sector G. G. Genovese MARS Food-Aid Sector FISH Sector Mission since 1989 Independent and timely production estimates for the major European crops