Rainer Friedrich. 37th TFIAM meeting. University of Stuttgart

Transcription

1 Integrated Assessment Modelling : the EU Projects INTARESE and HEIMTSA and their Common Case Study on Health Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation Policies Rainer Friedrich University of Stuttgart 37th TFIAM meeting Geneva; February 2010

2 Two Integrated Projects under EU FP6: Environment and Health, Global Change and Ecosystems INTARESE Integrated Assessment of Health Risks from Environmental Stressors in Europe : 5 years; 34 partners; Coordinator: David Briggs, Imperial College, London HEIMTSA Health and Environment Integrated Methodology and Toolbox for Scenario Assessment : 4 years; 21 partners; Coordinator: Fintan Hurley, Inst. for Occupational Medicine, Edinburgh Both will finish January 2011 Aims: Develop, test and demonstrate the use of methods and tools for integrated assessment of health impacts to support policy in Europe

3 INTARESE: focus on development of methodological framework HEIMTSA: focus on development of data, relationships, application Two main results: a guide book and resource centre on integrated assessment see prototype at a case study

4 The integrated assessment process Stakeholder consultation Discourse of design Epistemic discourse Reflective discourse Execution Issue framing Specification of policy question Identification of stakeholders Scoping Concept: scenarios, indicators Design Scenario construction Data sourcing/ evaluation Model testing Screening Full chain approach Aggregation and weighting Difference of reference and policy scenario allocated to policy Uncertainty estimation Appraisal Evaluation Cost- Effectiveness Cost-Benefit- Analyses Ranking Reporting

5 Long-range transport Emissions controls Land use planning Land use patterns Industry Transport policy Road traffic Issue framing: indoor air Meteorology (wind speed, wind direction, air pressure etc) Ambient concentrations Air exchange rate Ventilation status Pollutant ingress Site conditions Building design Building regulations Local emissions Room volume Furnishings Indoor concentrations Indoor emissions Heating Energy status Cooking Energy policies Exposures (PM, Nox, CO, VOCs, bioaerosols etc) Time activity patterns Respiratory disease Cardiovascular disease Cancer Pregnancy outcome

6 The Assessment Model Social, cultural, political, technological, economical & judicial contexts Spatial planning, legislation, etc. Anthropogenic and natural processes building, production, growth, development Emission reduction & controls; technology, etc. Chemical and physical processes Excretion, combustion, decay, corrosion, plant growth, etc. Stacks, treatment, ventilation; spatial planning, etc. Distribution Dispersion, transformation, conversion; spatial distribution, etc. Separation of functions, protective gear, education, advice, incentives; activity promotion, etc. Population behaviour; physical processes; accessibility Policy interventions Medication, secondary prevention, health care facilities; health promotion, etc. Pathophysicological and mental processes; pharmaco-kinetics Processes Meteorology, quality of media (air, water, soil), technology, etc. Meteorology, infrastructure, architecture, etc. Time activity, diet, product use, logistics, spatial distribution, etc. Behaviour, susceptibility (genetics, age, gender), attitudes, etc.. Variables Source strength Economy, industry, political systems, etc (# cars, power plants, industrial activity, green spaces, etc) Emissions/ releases Gases, chemicals, energy, etc. Concentration (in air, soil, water; or spatially) Load, magnitude, spatial density, distribution, etc Exposure/ Dose/ Access Duration & intensity of contact (external and/or internal) Health effects Physiological response, Symptoms, Morbidity, Mortality; Wellbeing; Disease burden Wider impacts Policy deficits/ surpluses, Societal Costs/ Benefits, Perceptions, Equity, etc.

7 New tools, data, relationships Integrated across sectors and pollutants: Pollutants/stressors covered: PMx, NOx, SO2, VOC, NH3, GHG, noise, dioxins, furans, PCBs, pesticides, NH3, HM, heat; indoor: PMx, formaldehyde, ETS, radon; Integrated across media, i.e. multimedia modelling soil-plant-food: pesticides, dioxins and furans, PCB, HM; noise generalisation model and indoor model Exposure modelling: concentration in microenvironments, time-activity-patterns New European population data base Disaggregated according to gender and age per grid; unemployment (per country) Methodology for uncertainty estimation Background rates for mortality and morbidity endpoints

8 Case Study Overview Aim: assess environmental health impacts of high-level, crosscutting policy issues at EU level Provide a full example of an integrated environmental health impact assessment according to INTARESE and HEIMTSA recommendations

9 The problem: Policies and measures for mitigation of and adaption to climate change are nearly always chosen with only a few criteria: reduction of CO2eq. emissions (mitigation) reduction of climate change impacts (adaption) costs and distribution of costs (who pays how much) - However there may be relevant side benefits or side detriments, that are also important for the decision process, especially secondary environmental health impacts. These are typically regional (i.e. European wide) effects, there is a more or less broad spatial and temporal gap between release/emission and health impact. Examples: production and burning of biomass, renewables and nuclear instead of coal and gas for electricity production, lower air exchange rate indoors, wood stoves indoors

10 Question of the INTARESE/HEIMTSA case study What are the (negative or positive) impacts of a) EU mitigation options (policies and resulting measures) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions b) EU adaptation options (policies and resulting measures) to reduce impacts of climate change on human health worldwide? Policies are assessed by comparing a scenario without the policy (bau scenario without further climate protection policies) with a scenario with the policy embedded in a climate scenario striving for not exceeding a 2 increase of the surface temperature

11 Main causal diagram

12 INTARESE/HEIMTSA Case Study Selected policies - Energy Energy supply changes (biomass, wind, solar, nuclear, CCS, CHP) Energy savings Selected policies - Transport Alternative fuels and drive trains (bio fuels, electric, hybrid, fuel cells) Increased efficiency Economic policies (e.g. increasing fuel taxes, road pricing, city tolls) speed limits in cities Investment in transport modes (public transport, bicycle lanes)

13 INTARESE/HEIMTSA Case Study Selected policies - Agriculture Biomass production for energy use Reduced demand for red meat and milk products Optimized fertiliser use Selected policies - Housing Improved insulation Increased air conditioning Enhanced use of wood stoves Selected policies Urban Planning Reduction of urban outside temperature ( improving airflow, water, shading, vegetation)

14 Screening results Energy Policies (mdalys / t CO 2 avoided): i. Larger share of renewables: (reduction of impacts) ii. Larger share of nuclear (+50%): -0.8 iii. Larger share of CCS (hard coal and lignite): iv. Larger share of biofuels (+20%): 0.43 (increase of impacts) v. More combined heat and power: vi. Increased insulation of building: Transport Policies (mdalys / t CO 2 avoided): i. Electric vehicles (30% of new cars in 2030): -0.2 ii. Energy efficiency: -1.7 iii. Ecodriving: -0.2

15 Conclusions Decisions should be made taking all relevant aspects into account. Important parts of an integrated assessment, that should be properly adressed, are: Issue framing: Definition of the policy question, scoping and screening Scenario building Stakeholder involvement Inclusion of behavioural changes; adaptation Uncertainty estimation Presentation of results

16 Conclusions II Case study screening results: i. Health impacts of quite a number of climate change mitigation policies and adaptation measures (e.g. energy efficiency in the transport and housing sectors) are as important as the climate change effects. ii. Some policies, e.g. biomass burning and insulation of houses might cause quite high additional health impacts. iii. In general: relevant side effects might change policy recommendations drastically and should thus be taken into account hen making decisions

17 Some research needs Improvements along the full chain (impact pathway): robust approximation techniques (when reliable data and knowledge is missing); exposure modelling; indoor exposure; multi-media modelling; exposure response relationships (esp. PM species, size and number; noise and multiple exposures), radiative forcing of PM, O3; SOA formation Modelling of human behaviour and responses Quantification of further pathways: Flame retardants (PBDEs) and phthalates indoor, electromagnetic fields, nano particles; disinfection by-products and nitrates in drinking water; biodiversity changes due to climate change, eutrophication and acidification, long term risks of climate change (monetary) assessment of Damocles risks, cancer, biodiversity losses, Assessment of altruism (WTP of risk reduction for others) Inclusion of the precautionary principle