Mikiko Kainuma National Institute for Environmental Studies Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium September 2008 Vienna, Austria

Transcription

1 Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios Mikiko Kainuma National Institute for Environmental Studies Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium September 28 Vienna, Austria

2 A Low-Carbon project Forecasting from now and Backcasting from future prescribed/normative world Technology development, socio-economic change projected by historically trend onmental pressure 3. We need Trend Breaks to realize visions 2 Forecastin g required intervention policy and measures Release of AIM result Required Policy intervention and Investment Checking year(215) Backcasting Checking year(225) Mitigation Technology development Service demand change by changing social behavior, lifestyles and institutions 1.Target may be tough Long-term target year Reference future world 2. We need Visions Required intervention 7% reductions In Japan Normative target world 5% reductions

3 Creation of narrative storylines of future Low Carbon Societies: Image A Type of cities and housing Energy system Preference/value judgments public transportation and private vehicle An Image of future: vivid and technologydriven society

4 7% reduction feasible in Japan: Combination of demand side energy reduction +low carbon energy Direct cost: 1% of GDP/Y Final energy demands Primary energy supply 2 25 A 25 B Industrial Seconday energy demands (Mtoe) 15 2 Industrial Residential Commercia l 2(Actual) 25(Scenario A) 25(Scenario B) Residential Trans. Prv. Commercial Trans. Frg. Trans. Prv. Coal Oil Gas Biomass Nuclear But it is not realized without suitable policies 3 Solar and Wind Decrease of Energy Deman d Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe) 4 Trans. Frg. 5 Hydro 4 6 Coal Oil Gas Biomass Nuclear Hydro Solar and Wind

5 A Dozen of Actions towards Low-Carbon Societies Name of Action Explanation Expected CO2 1 Comfortable and Green Built Efficiently use of sunlight and energy reductions Residential Environment efficient built environment design. sector: 2 Anytime, Anywhere Initial cost reduction by rental system 56~48 MtC Appropriate Appliances for promoting Top Runner appliances. 3 Promoting Seasonal Local Supply of seasonal and safe low Industrial Food carbon local foods for local cuisine sector: 4 Sustainable Building Using local and renewable buildings 3~35 MtC Materials materials and products. 5 Environmentally Enlightened Businesses aiming at creating and 6 Business and Industry Swift and Smooth Logistics operating in low carbon market. Networking seamless logistics systems Transportation with supply chain management. sector: 7 Pedestrian Friendly City City designed for short trips and 44~45 MtC Design efficient public transport 8 Low-Carbon Electricity Large-scale renewables, nuclear power Energy and CCS-equipped fired plants conversion 9 Local Renewable Resources Enhancing local renewables use, such sector: for Local Demand as solar, wind, biomass and others. 95~81 MtC 1 Next Generation Fuels Carbon free hydrogen- and/or 11 Labeling to Encourage Smart biomass-based energy supply system Information for smart choices of low Cross-sectional and rational Choices 12 Low Carbon Society carbon goods and Human resource development for Leadership building Low-Carbon Society The reductions in each sector are based on Scenario A and Scenario B, respectively.

6 Deep cut of GHG emissions could be possible, but it requires strong policy will to make it happen. To examine when and how innovations should be implemented is indispensable to realize Low Carbon Society. Mid-term national scale integrated assessment models could support: Creating concrete image of future world and policy targets Backcasting from the future world and identifying required policy intervention and investments