Sustainable Mobility in China The Health Impact of Urban Transport

Transcription

1 Sustainable Mobility in China The Health Impact of Urban Transport By Dr. Lasse Fridstrøm, Managing Director, Institute of Transport Economics (TØI), Professor Jiang Yulin, Depute Chief Engineer, CATS, and Director of CUSTReC, and Dr Carlos Dora, World Health Organization CAS/NRC Workshop of Collaborating Research in the Field of Environment and Climate Beijing, Nov 30 Dec 1, /12/2009 Page 1 Institute of Transport Economics

2 Institute of Transport Economics (TØI) Mission: To develop and disseminate transportation knowledge with scientific quality and practical application. Founded 1964 Private, non-profit foundation per cent basic funding Contract research, mainly for public sector clients Some 70 researchers Interdisciplinary, primarily social scientists Partner in CIENS ; Oslo Centre for Interdisciplinary Environmental and Social Research Side 2

3 China Academy of Transportation Sciences (CATS) Established in : 1960 Supervisor: Ministry of Transport & Ministry of Science and Technology Consisting of: 700 professionals, 11 research divisions

4 Research Divisions Transport Development Research Center Transport Information Center Environment Protection and Safety Research Center Transportation Technical Consulting Center C A T S China Urban Sustainable Transport Research Center Logistics Research and Development Center Road Structure and Material Development Center Transport Economics and Financing Institute Standards and Measurement Research Center Information Research Center Information Technology Center

5 Sustainable mobility what is it? At their meeting on April 4-5, 2001, the European Union s Ministers of Transport adopted this definition: A sustainable transport system is one that: Allows the basic access and development needs of individuals, companies and societies to be met safely and in a manner consistent with human and ecosystem health, and promises equity within and between successive generations; Is affordable, operates fairly and efficiently, offers choice of transport mode, and supports a competitive economy, as well as balanced regional development; Limits emissions and waste within the planet s ability to absorb them, uses renewable resources at or below their rates of generation, and, uses non-renewable resources at or below the rates of development of renewable substitutes while minimizing the impact on land and the generation of noise. 07/12/2009 Page 5 Institute of Transport Economics

6 Sustainable mobility what is it? (Mass transit + Bicycle/Walk/Car) The One kilometer Problem around the terminals(home, Office, Shopping Center, etc.): Develop Bicycle Rental Or Distrcit New Energy Bus

7 Transport is a key determinant of the Global Burden of Disease Physical inactivity 1,9 million deaths Traffic injuries kills 1,2 million deaths Ambient air pollution 800,000 estimated deaths Climate Change over 150,000 deaths (Source: WHO)

8 Environment Air pollution from Coal pollution to Vehicular emision pollution 60% air pollution from vehicles in big cities Only 30% of the cities can meet the air standard g/pkm Car (gasoline) Car (diesel) Pollutant Emission (1) Hybrid car Rail Air plane Taxi Bus Subway CO2 C g/pkm Car (gasoline) Car (diesel) Hybrid car Pollutant Emission (2) Rail Air plane Taxi Bus Subway NOx PM10

9 Congestion Beijing: Commuting time over 1 hour:40% Economic loss: 40 million per day Arverage speed in 11 main roads: < 12km/h Shanghai: Economic loss: 10% reduction of GDP

10 How can we highlight the health benefits of sustainable transport? 1. Make it an explicit part of decision making in transport: - Have a health agency participate in the planning - Establish health targets 2. Estimate/ Inform about the costs and benefits for health of transport decisions 3. Include health in environmental impact assessments 4. Use health indicators to estimate impacts of transport policies (and include health in your index of sustainability) 5. Collaborate in joint projects involving Health, Environment & Transport.

11 Challenges of urban transport The years spent for the urbanization growth from 20% to 40% in different countries Country Britain France Germany USA Former U.S.S.R Japan China Year Period 120 Years 100 Years 80 Years 40 Years 30 Years 30 Years 22 Years Vehicles /1 thousand people ) India China Brazil Mexico U.K. France Japan Canada U.S.A.

12 Shanghai 上海 万 thousand Beijing 北京 Tokyo 东京 Lodon 伦敦 Paris 大巴黎 Chongqing 重庆 万 thousand New York 纽约 Great 大伦敦 Lodon Tianjin 天津 Nanjing 南京 Chengdu 成都城 万 thousand 人 Athens 雅典 Rome 罗马市口 Madrid 马德里 Dalian 大连布加勒斯特 Bucharest 万 thousand Hefei 合肥 Vienna 维也纳 Barcelona 巴塞罗那 Prague 布拉格 Ningbo 宁波布鲁塞尔 Brussels 万 thousand 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 公共交通 PT 小汽车 Car 其他 Others Cities Public transport in China is far behind 不同国家公共交通分担率比较 compared with other countries Population

13 A model of pedestrian fatality risk Road fatality risk data from 88 countries Source: ibid. Source: Kopits and Cropper (2005), quoted by Bhalla et al. (2007) 07/12/2009 Page 13 Institute of Transport Economics

14 Road Traffic Safety Situation in China(1) Numbers of Road Traffic Accidents and People Injured in China from 1951 to 2008

15 Road Traffic Safety Situation in China(2) Deaths Number:73,484(2008,China ) Death Rate per 10,000 Vehicles :4.3(2008,China) Comparison of mortality rate per 10,000 vehicles with other countries JPN(2006) U.K.(2006) CAN(2006) AUS(2006) FRA(2006) USA(2006) CHN(2006) CHN(2007) CHN(2008) Vehicle Number: 0.17 billion 50 million( 2008,China ) High contradiction between supply and demand of urban traffic

16 Beijing As an Example Major Characteristics of Beijing s Urban Road Traffic Accident Traffic violation (90%) High death rate per 10,000 vehicles (3.85,2007) Drivers with low driving ages Lighting conditions Accidents account (30%) Death number account (40%) the motor vehicle drivers'fault, 78.50% the non-motor mechanical failure, vehicle drivers'fault, 3.80% the pesestrains and 4.20% other, 7.10% the reason of roads, 0.20% vehicle takers' fault, 6.20%

17 The 2nd edition of The Handbook of Road Safety Measures (previously published in 2004) gives state-of-the-art summaries of current scientific knowledge regarding the effects of 128 road safety measures. It covers all areas of road safety including: the design of roads; traffic control; vehicle design and vehicle safety features; vehicle inspection; driver training; publicity campaigns; police enforcement and general policy instruments. With many of the original chapters revised and several new ones added, extra topics covered in this edition include: environmental zones, DUI legislation and enforcement, speed cameras and post-accident care. More than 2,000 scientific studies have been reviewed and their findings summarized by means of meta-analysis in the new edition of this important reference work. Authoritative and unique in its broad coverage, this handbook serves as a comprehensive reference manual for road safety professionals worldwide. Available from 07/12/2009 Page 17 Institute of Transport Economics

18 Vehicle external cost in European countries (EURO/ 1000 pkm) Items Car Bus Rail Noise Air Pollution Global Warming Road Space Use Congestion Accident Real Cost/Total management cost (%) On foot Bicycle Motorcycle Car Taxi Bus Rail (Source: Prof. Zhang Xuekong)

19 There Is a Need for Integrated Strategies That: Tackle simultaneously all environmental and health impacts of transport Accidents, effects of air pollution, noise, climate change, physical activity through walking and cycling

20 The Integrated Policies and strategies will benefit health: Public transport priority development i.e. set up public transport development fund, fund source: internalisation the external cost Transport Demand Management via: Economic measures Changes in individual travel behaviors Compact land use to reduce travel demand Maintain high walking and cycling

21 Most benefits to health of the policies and strategies can be expected in Urban Areas: 65 % of accidents occur in urban areas (only 5 % on motorways) Air pollution is higher in urban areas, as is the risk of exposure for vulnerable groups. Annoyance from noise from roads, airports and railways is reported more by urban dwellers. Opportunities for commuting by cycling and walking are greater

22 Bogota: urban space to public transport and pedestrians some evidence of reduction in traffic injuries and air pollution before after

23 Research questions Health & Urban Transport What can the scientific literature tell us about the health impact of transport in China? What is the impact on air quality of urban transport? To what extent are the insights from road safety research carried out in Europe and North America transferable to China? How can we forecast the number of road fatalities and injuries in China as of, say, 2020? What are the most relevant policy measures to mitigate the health impacts of urban transport? What is the external economic cost of urban transport in China? What are the co-benefits between health and climate effects? 07/12/2009 Page 23 Institute of Transport Economics

24 Thank you for listening! 07/12/2009 Page 24 Institute of Transport Economics