Latest Climate Change Policies & Long-term Low Carbon Vision in Japan

Transcription

1 Latest Climate Change Policies & Long-term Low Carbon Vision in Japan Takeshi ABE Research and Information Office Ministry of the Environment, Japan (MOEJ) 13 th Sep, th LCS-RNet Annual Meeting in UK

2 Contents 1. Climate change policy development Overview 2. National Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures 3. Long-term low-carbon vision (1) Background (2) Current Situation (3) Basic Concept (4) Policy Direction 2

3 1. Climate change policy development Overview Intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) submitted to UNFCCC (July 2015) National Adaptation Plan, Cabinet decision (November 2015) Paris Agreement, adopted at COP21 (December 2015) National Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures, Cabinet decision (13 May 2016) Revision of Law to Promote Global Warming Countermeasures, (20 May 2016) G7 Ise-Shima Summit (26-27 May 2016 ) Long-term Low-carbon Vision, published by Central Environment Council under MOEJ (March 2017) Outcome will serve as a basis for further Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy (by well ahead of 2020)

4 2. National Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures (May 2016)

5 2. National Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures (May 2016) 1. Outline Promote Japan s global warming countermeasures in a comprehensive and a well-planned manner 2. Basic Direction Mid-term target: 26% reduction by 2030 compared to 2013 Long-term goal: aim for 80 % reduction by 2050 Global GHG reduction 3. Progress Management of the Plan Progress review: every year Revision consideration: every 3 years 5

6 2. National Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures (May 2016) Examples of policies & measures listed in the Plan Presents policies & measures by gas, and clarifies the pathway to achieve 26% reduction (1) Industrial sector Promotion and verification of action plans towards a low carbon society with max introduction of BAT (Best Available Technology) (2) Commercial sector (3) Residential sector Intensive energy management using Home Energy management system (HEMS), smart meters (4) Transportation sector - Diffusion of next-generation automobiles, improvement of fuel efficiency (Sales of EV, FCV etc. 50 to 70% of new automobile sales) (5) Energy conversion sector - Expanding renewable energy introduction - Pursuit of high efficiency in thermal power generation and etc. <Cross-sectional measures> - Promotion of the J-Credit Scheme - Estimation, reporting and disclosure of businesses GHG emissions - Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM) - Greening tax system, Greening finance system, etc. Nextgeneration automobile Promotion of ZEB Introduction of highefficient air conditioning LED lighting Solar power generation International cooperation Response to Paris Agreement, JCM, REDD+ Collaboration with countries and international bodies Progress management Yearly progress review, consider revision of the plan every 3 years, taking into account 5 year cycle of Paris Agreement 6

7 3. Long-term low-carbon vision (Mar 2017)

8 3. Long-term low-carbon vision (Mar 2017) (1) Background At the Ise-Shima Summit, the G7 committed to developing and submitting long-term low GHG emission development strategies as soon as possible or at the latest by Aspects in Japan; A massive reduction of GHG would have unforeseen changes to our society. It is necessary therefore, to form a national vision. Sharing the Vision of society and encouraging actions from citizens and entities is needed. It will also attract inward investment Discussed in the Subcommittee on long-term low-carbon vision in Central Environment Council under MOEJ The Vision published in Mar,

9 3. Long-term low-carbon vision (Mar 2017) (2) Current Situation Climate Change (Scientific fact) Agreements were made in Paris Agreement to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources, and removals by sinks of GHG, in the second half of this century Economic and social challenges in Japan Respond to various problems including depopulation, aging, requirement for economic revival, local/global problems 9

10 Economic and social challenges in Japan Population by Generation Aging of the population and declining birthrates will progress, and the population of Japan has already peaked in It is estimated that the overall population will be 97 million by 2050 (-20%) and the production-age (15-64) population will be 50 million by 2050 (-29%). (unit: 10 thousand) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,693 12,77712,806 12,711 12,105 12,36112,557 12,410 12,066 11,706 11,662 11,194 2,001 1,847 1,752 1,680 1,611 1,457 11,212 1,324 2,249 10,728 10,467 1,204 2,603 1,129 10,221 9,921 2,751 1,073 9,708 9,430 2,722 1,012 9,193 9,008 2, ,674 8,411 2, ,843 3,012 7,708 7,341 7,084 2,979 8,103 6,773 8,409 6,343 5,787 8,622 5,353 8,716 5,001 4,706 8,590 4,418 8,251 7,883 7,581 7,212 6,744 6,047 5,517 1,752 1,733 1,479 1,407 1,495 1,645 1,600 1,383 5,017 1,225 1,128 1,517 1,407 1,301 1,109 1, ,407 1,641 1,879 2,179 2,278 2,245 2,223 2,257 2,385 2, , Actual Estimated % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (Resource) By 2016 FY Annual Report on the Aging Society 0~14 歳 15~64 歳 65~74 歳 75 歳以上 ~ 高齢化率 Rate of aging 生産年齢人口比率 Rate of production-age (65~) (65 歳以上割合 ) (15~64) (15-64 歳割合 ) 10

11 Economic and social challenges in Japan Transitive Graph for Aging (2015) (Europe & America) (Asia) 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% Japan Italia German Sweden French Spain UK USA 日本 (26.7%) イタリア (22.4%) ドイツ (21.2%) スウェーデン (19.9%) フランス (19.1%) スペイン (18.8%) イギリス (17.8%) アメリカ合衆国 (14.8%) 先進地域 Developed (17.6%) 開発途上地域 Developing (6.4%) 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% Japan Korea 日本 (26.7%) 韓国 (13.1%) シンガポール Singapore (11.7%) タイ Thailand (10.5%) China India 中国 (9.6%) インド (5.6%) インドネシア Indonesia (5.2%) フィリピン Phillipen (4.6%) 先進地域 Developed (17.6%) 開発途上地域 Developing (6.4%) 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% Actual Estimated Actual Estimated (Resource) By 2016 FY Annual Report on the Aging Society 11

12 Economic and social challenges in Japan per capita GHG Emission/GDP - Rank in OECD countries - Japan s ranking has been decreasing since 2000 high yen rate per capita GHG Emission/GDP per capita GDP Kyoto Protocol adopted Great East Japan earthquake (Resource) Created from GHG Data (UNFCCC), World Economic Outlook Database(IMF), GDP is based on Nominal value, 2015FY National economy calculating annual estimates(revised on the basis of 2011FY ver.) (Cabinet Office) 12

13 3. Long-term low-carbon vision (Mar 2017) (3) Basic Concept Japan s future vision Forerunner of finding answers for emerging Issues to achieve both massive GHG reduction & prosperity, finding a simultaneous solution for climate change and economic & social challenges Simultaneous solution of economic and social problems, driven by climate change Contribution to global reduction as well as domestic reduction Innovation (on technology, socioeconomic system and lifestyle) is the key Now is the time to act 13

14 Now is the time to act Carbon budget The Carbon budget is one of the most important concepts in climate change action. For significant reduction of cumulative emissions, continuous and serious actions, with a sense of crisis, are necessary. Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtCO 2 ) Remaining cumulative CO2 emissions since 1870 below 2900 GtCO2 is required. About 1900 GtCO28 had already 2 been emitted by Temperature change relative to s Cumulative anthropogenic CO2 and temp. change at 2090s of stringent mitigation scenario Developed to meet the goal of holding temperature increase well below2 (Source)IPCC AR5 SYR Figure 2.3 Avoidance of lock-in Once city structure and large-scale facilities are introduced, CO2 emissions could remain high (lock-in effect) over time. A Need for response considering long-term environmental impact. A Need for perspective of what to do going forward. Infrastructure of very low emission Infrastructure of low emission Usage Period * About1trillion tco 2 remains. Environmental emission * Maintenance etc. Environmental emission Environmental emission Total Environmental mission Annual emission Use period (yrs) Annual emission Use period (yrs) Annual emission Use period (yrs) Infrastructure of large emission * Infrastructure such as urban structure and large-scale facilities cannot be changed immediately once it is developed. Adequate action is needed from now, considering long-term environmental impact Principle of environmental policy Prevention approaches, precautionary principle and a polluter pays principle are principles of environmental policy, established in the development of several international laws and in history, to overcome environmental pollution. Now is the time to act to avoid/mitigate damage caused by climate change, though the damage is already visible. Technology diffusion Together with R&D and demos of new technologies, gradual diffusion should be promoted as it takes time. Change of ownership rate in Japanese household Smartphone 9.7% in FY % in FY2014 ETC On-Board Unit 10.2% in FY % in FY2010 (Source) MIC HP Global trend Actions of countries around the world, local governments and various actors such as businesses, the finance industry, civil society are accelerated. Failure of following this trend will possibly harm Japan s interests. 14

15 Key to long-term massive reduction is innovation Great social transformation is essential to achieve massive GHG reduction in the long term. Innovation beyond the scope of existing measures thus far, is necessary. Images of massive reduction in various sectors For Nearly zero-carbon emission in daily life Buildings /Life Style Nearly zero-emission on stock average Energy-efficient houses and buildings Transportation Use of Electric or fuel cell cars and large cut of oil use New values to be created by electric cars ( 出所 ) 中央環境審議会地球環境部会低炭素長期ビジョン小委員会 ( 第 8 回 ) 日産自動車株式会社エキスパートリーダー朝日氏御提供資料 Promote use of public transportation Modal shift ( 出所 ) 今後の住宅 建築物の省エネルギー対策のあり方について ( 第一次答申 ) 参考資料集 2015 年 1 月 ( 出所 ) 国土交通省 国土交通分野における今後の地球温暖化対策 ( 緩和策 ) について ( 平成 27 年 3 月 ) 15

16 Images of massive reduction in various sectors Industry Business Energy demand and supply Region City Low-carbon investment and market gain by low-carbon products and services all over the world Embed ultra-high efficiency devices More than 90% of electricity comes from low-carbon power sources Image of 80% reduction by 2050 Compactness, and independent & decentralized energy Use of renewable energy: Miyagi pref. エネルギー損失 スイッチ損失 伝導損失 5% の損失 0.75% に Si 4H-SiC GaN ( 半導体材料 ) ( 出所 ) 上 左下 : 中央環境審議会地球環境部会低炭素長期ビジョン小委員会 ( 第 6 回 ) 名古屋大学教授天野氏御提供資料右下 : 中央環境審議会地球環境部会低炭素長期ビジョン小委員会 ( 第 6 回 ) 大阪大学教授森氏御提供資料 MOE NCV project ( 出所 ) 気候変動長期戦略懇談会 Centralized/distributed energy management ( 出所 ) 東京大学エネルギー工学連携研究センター荻本研究室 CCS ( 出所 ) 中央環境審議会地球環境部会低炭素長期ビジョン小委員会 ( 第 5 回 ) 東松島市復興政策課長高橋氏御提供資料 Maniwa city, Okayama ( 出所 ) 真庭市資料より環境省作成 Tsuyama city, Okayama ( 出所 ) 環境省 NCV プロジェクト ( 平成 28 年 12 月 ) ( 出所 ) 環境省平成 26 年度図で見る環境 循環型社会 生物多様性白書 ( 出所 ) 津山市資料より環境省作成 16

17 Future Image of Region & City in Japan 17

18 3. Long-term low-carbon vision (Mar 2017) (4) Policy Direction Policy Direction (a) Full usage of existing technologies, know-how and findings (b) Development and deployment of new innovation (c) Full mobilization of all effective policies and measures (PaMs) Carbon pricing Make the best use of market dynamism. Enhance market competitiveness of low-carbon technologies, products and services. Improve environment for innovation. Disclose environmental information, promote and diffuse innovative technology, land use, contribute to the global GHG reduction.. Making progress for longterm massive reduction Review progress incl. cumulative GHG emission. Different opinion exist on several policy directions, incl. carbon pricing. 18