Urbanization, Transportation and Land Use: Policy Integration Towards Sustainable Urban Energy Use For Cities in Asia

Transcription

1 Proceedings of International Workshop on Policy Integration Towards Sustainable Urban Energy Use for Cities in Asia, 4-5 February 2003 (East West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii) 2003 Institute for Global Environmental Strategies All rights reserved. Urbanization, Transportation and Land Use: Policy Integration Towards Sustainable Urban Energy Use For Cities in Asia J. Fitz Ford a 1. Introduction Policy integration is a critical consideration in thinking about or planning for sustainable urbanization. This paper tries to put the issues of urbanization, transportation and land use in the context of: 1) the drivers of urbanization in Asia and the likely consequences in terms of population size and income distributional characteristics, and the potential spatial fallout from that evolving population: 2) the constraints that size and density distribution impose on potential solutions; 3) the array of regulatory, pricing and investment options that need to be combined to address land use, transportation and pollution objectives; 4) how different economic, fiscal and financial circumstances present different options for the interaction between transportation and land use at the level of individual cities of given characteristics; and, 5) how taking the perspective of a national or regional system of system of cities may add options or otherwise affect choice. 2. The Context of urbanization and sustainability Asia s cities are, as elsewhere, centers of economic growth. The general point of the relationship between growth and urbanization has been established in other studies b. The table below illustrates this point with examples of Asian countries and cities c. In addition, the relative wealth of cities and countries form a backdrop against which the realistic policy options for improving transportation and land use and reducing congestion and pollution are discussed. In only three cases (Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Cambodia) are the selected cities per capita income lower than the country as a whole, and as Bangladesh and Dhaka and others illustrate, a major city may be substantially wealthier than the country average. It also is the rare case (Kyrgyz, Nepal, South Korea) that the country s population growth rate outstrips the selected city. Although this does not pretend to be a representative sample of cities, these data also illustrate the potential economic growth rates that may be associated with cities. Doubling of per capita incomes while accommodating rapid population growth occurred in Bangalore, Dhaka, and Ulaanbaatar in the five year from 1993 to Only in Dhaka did the rate of increasing densification suggest that this growth was accommodated without sprawl. a The Urban Sector Leader, The World Bank, Washington DC 20433, USA, Tel: , Fax: , jford@worldbank.org b See for example the World Bank s Urban Sector Strategy paper, Cities in Transition, September, c Even allowing for oddities in the data assembled from various sources including the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank and the Economist (unfortunately there was not enough time to clean them all in time for this workshop) key relationships are striking.

2 Table 1. Country City Demography Proceedings of International Workshop on Policy Integration Towards Sustainable Urban Energy Use for Cities in Asia, 4-5 February 2003 (East West Centre, Honolulu, Hawaii) Economy 2003 Institute for Global Finance Environmental Strategies Socioecomic All rights reserved. Population ('000) Density (per persons/ha) Annual Rate of Increase (in percent) City Product (per capita US$) Households below poverty line (percent) Share of taxes to total revenue (percent) Informal Employment (percent) India 898, ,673 1,067, ('00) Bangalore 4,472 5, N/A Kyrgyz Republic 4,483 4, , ('00) Bishkek , Philippines 65,321 72, , ('00) Cebu 2, ,021 N/A N/A Mandaluyong 9,886 13, ,134 2,434 N/A Naga N/A N/A N/A 2 N/A 2,033 N/A 29 N/A 21.8 N/A 32.1 Sri Lanka 17,646 18, , ('00) Colombo 2,190 2, , Bangladesh 116, , , ('00) Dhaka 7,500 10, N/A 47.7 N/A 26.7 N/A 63 Viet Nam 70,348 76, , ('00) People's Republic of China Hanoi 2,327 2,503.0 N/A N/A 99 N/A 67.2 N/A N/A 1,178,439 1,242, ,319, ('00) Hohhot N/A 1,036.3 N/A 684 N/A 2.2 N/A 845 N/A N/A N/A 85.6 N/A 8.2 Hong Kong N/A 8,090.7 N/A 670 N/A 2.8 N/A 26,369 N/A N/A N/A 53 N/A N/A Nepal 19,481 21, , ('00) Kathmandu 1, N/A 750 N/A N/A 33 Pakistan 116, , , ('00) Lahore 5,150 5, , Indonesia 187, , , ('00) Medan 1,810 3, N/A Australia 17,662 18, , ('01) Melbourne 3,023 3, N/A 28,456 N/A N/A N/A N/A Cambodia 10,048 11, , ('00) Phnom Penh N/A 1,169.8 N/A 203 N/A 5.4 N/A 246 N/A 24 N/A 11.5 N/A N/A South Korea 44,056 46, , ('00) The Republic of the Fiji Islands Seoul N/A 19,844.5 N/A N/A -0.7 N/A 24,000 N/A 1.2 N/A 59.7 N/A N/A ('00) Suva ,960 3,205 N/A 17.5 N/A Mongolia 2,211 2, , ('00) Ulaanbaatar N/A

3 3. Transportation and land use options The familiar array of options are essentially involve pro-active commitment to policies involving transportation and land use planning and regulation and substantial public investment commitment to transit modes. The default option is reactive responses to growth characterized by road building or improvement in reaction to lightly managed land use and transportation choices by private individuals or companies. The literature on this subject usually points to the benefits of the former, with the political, financial, institutional and administrative difficulties that attends it, and the costs and wastefulness of the alternative, especially in terms of economic efficiency, environmental consequences, sprawl and social equity. The reality for most cities is usually somewhere on the spectrum between the two extremes. It is critical to recognize that the size, growth rate and density distribution of cities have crucial impacts on the extent to which dependence on transit and densification policies around transit modes and along transit corridors can achieve reductions in congestion and pollution. This is illustrated in the comparison between Barcelona, Spain and Atlanta, Georgia in the United States that is discussed below Under-represented considerations and options In addition to the above options, increasing attention must be paid by analysts to the need to incorporate other considerations and options in order to meet the goal of sustainable cities. The first consideration affects the demand side of land use and transportation while the others are options for demand managements Demand Technological changes and evolving business practices place emphasis on efficient movement of goods between suppliers and manufacturers and sellers (as in just in time inventory management), and between sellers and consumers (as in internet shopping). The planning literature has not yet fully caught up with these trends and we do not have much to say about their implications and how these new requirements may be managed Options for demand management When Singapore successfully pioneered their congestion pricing system two decades ago urban policy advocates (certainly in the World Bank) saw this as a model that would spread to several other large, congested cities. However, despite technological improvements transponders that facilitate traffic flow as well as the application of pricing that also accounts for time of day, this highly beneficial policy has been rarely copied (Hong Kong being a notable exception). Nevertheless, it is an important practical and equitable option that has much to recommend it except its impact on the politically powerful. Environmental improvements also are possible in congested cities from policies to encourage the use of less polluting and more fuel efficient vehicles. Examples include from diesel to gasoline, from older gasoline vehicles to newer gasoline vehicles, from gasoline to natural gas or hybrids, etc Atlanta and Barcelona: a case of two cities d Atlanta and Barcelona are two cities of approximately the same sized population but substantially different density distribution. Atlanta s 2.5 million population in 1990 was spread over a built up area of 4,280 km2 while Barcelona s 2.8 million people (1990) occupied a mere 162 km2. The metro networks are 74 and 99 kilometers respectively, however, while 60% of Barcelona s population lives within 600 meters of a metro station, only 4% of Atlanta s d This presentation is extracted from a rich, but as yet unpublished paper by Alain Bertaud.

4 population live within 800 meters of a metro station. As a result, 4.5% of Atlanta's trips are made by metro while 30% of trips in Barcelona are by metro and in addition, 8% are by walking. As a result of the difference in densities, Atlanta would need to increase its transit system by more than 45 times its current size in order to create the same accessibility as Barcelona. 4. Implications of Asian realities for transportation and land use planning The story line of this paper is that Asia s cities will grow to absorb population and consume additional space as an inevitable aspect of economic growth. Further, that for these cities to be sustainable they must manage aggressively and effectively their land use, traffic, emissions and transportation options. Existing size and density distribution will facilitate or constrain options, especially with regard to transit. The use of pricing mechanisms and policies to encourage less polluting fuel use is appropriate under any foreseeable circumstances. The remainder of this paper structures a typology of options to fit the various circumstances of Asian cities as they are likely to emerge in the next two decades. Special attention is paid to the implications for the poor in different choice scenarios. The options, costs and incidence effects would be summarized in a broad matrix format. The first case examines would be where there is meaningful fiscal/financial capacities to keep up with or be ahead of the population growth. Examples of choices made by various Asian cities will illustrate this section Categories of countries and cities The usual caveats apply to this attempt to classify the complexity of Asian cities into a few categories. To further simplify the discussion, only a selection of countries are mentioned as illustrative of the categories discussed. It should be emphasized that this categorization is expected to be illustrative rather than definitive. The countries of Asia include two very large countries, China and India, the former growing at a rapid and quite sustained rate while the latter s growth rate is more modest but nevertheless significant. The overall size of these two economies create opportunities for financing transit options that do not exist for smaller economies. Australia, South Korea and Malaysia (not included in the table) have substantial scope because of the strength and size of their individual economies. These five countries are representative of an upper group with the greatest scope of options. Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand e have significantly different current economic performance at present, however, they broadly fit into a middle category of relatively large countries with good potential and include at least one metropolitan city. They would be expected to have outlier circumstances of special opportunities where a reasonable range of options exist. Bangladesh, Pakistan and Vietnam are countries with large populations but lower incomes. A more limited range of options are immediately available, but there is headroom for the future. Countries such as Cambodia, Nepal and Mongolia have much more constrained options in the medium-term. Within these countries are cities which may have fiscal/financial strengths that match or exceed the rank of their countries. Mumbai, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Kuala Lumpur may be top ranked cities in economic terms, but Bangkok, Jakarta, and Manila may be closer to them than their countries as a whole are to the top five. Much the same could be said of Dhaka, Ho Chi Minh City and Karachi vis a vis the second tier of cities compared to the countries in the two categories. The significance of these categories are related to two critical aspects of transport options: transit systems and the need and ability to accommodate the poor. Holtzclaw f suggests that the density thresholds for intermediary bus service, e Thailand will not be discussed further as pertinent data were unavailable at this time. f Holtzclaw, John. Using Residential Patterns and Transit to Decrease Auto Dependence and Costs, Natural Resources Defense Council, June 1994.

5 light rail and metro are 30 people per hectare (p/ha), 30 p/ha and 50 p/ha respectively for North America. Of course, the distribution of that density is of critical importance as most should be clustered within easy access to transit nodes. According to Bertaud, most Asian cities have satisfactory distribution of density, consequently the crucial considerations are cost and affordability. Central governments who can afford to do so may help to fund the cost of investment in a metro, but it is not a coincidence that Hong Kong and Seoul who have metro systems also enjoy per capita incomes above $20,000. Significant as it is, investment cost is not necessarily the crucial consideration. Who rides the metro may be crucial. In Mexico City, metro riders are the lower income group as the wealthy and middle class see the metro as over-crowded, personally hazardous and unsuited to their status. As a result political support for the necessary subsidies to operate and expand the existing system has historically been weak. In Asian cities, therefore, the question defaults to whether there will be a sufficiently large middle class ridership to ensure financial and political viability. This also implies that the fare structure can attract a large lower income working population and still adequately support the operating costs of the system. A further complication is the relative location of home and job of the various income classes of riders. If the lower income group live on the periphery of the city and their jobs are located in the center city there would be implications for the tariff structure. Fares may not be able to increase directly proportional to distance traveled. In addition, would middle class riders living closer in to center city jobs be willing to take a metro arriving at their station already crowded with lower income riders. In reality, a transit plan would be designed to be multi-modal to allow for the accommodating of the various markets of users. The difficulty for countries and cities lower on the economic ladder is that the number of modal options to be considered become progressively limited. For example, a metro is not likely to be on the menu for Dhaka for some time. Manila has opted for a light rail system at the top of its transit hierarchy Additional options a reprise It is important to reiterate that choosing the appropriate transit strategy and investment program is only one essential aspect of preparing to accommodate rapid economic and population growth. Land use planning and regulation is the primary partner of the transit program. However, these programs must be supported by fiscal measures that maintain the viability of the cities as well as provide the appropriate signals to citizens with regard to growth and distribution. These measure almost invariably require the collaboration of central and city governments. Cities cannot usually successfully impose emission standards, but would properly be expected to ensure an efficient and effective inspection system to ensure that regulations are enforced. Neither can cities be responsible for paying for equity policies that anticipate and plan for rural migrants seeking a better life for their families in the city. Nevertheless, the planning and implementation for the services and the management of them, will fall to cities. 5. Confrontation with reality It is fair to say that few countries and cities have taken sufficient advantage of the policy and planning options outlined above. The data assembled for this paper do not help to explain why this is the case. Most cities that do well with regard to transportation and land use planning tend to be otherwise well managed, which includes being fiscally and financially sound. It also is true that many large cities have been facing fiscal and financial difficulties for some time. Many of these cities have made little progress in reducing poverty or improving the welfare of their poor populations. Nevertheless, they, as well as well-managed cities, continue to grow economically and attract migrants.

6 The difference is that poorly managed cities tend to become more polluted and congested and ultimately may be expected to have lower growth rates and be less sustainable. It would be useful to properly examine the relationship between the deterioration in physical and the fiscal circumstances. A working hypothesis may be that countries that lack a proper intergovernmental fiscal system or city governments that have been poor mangers of their fiscal systems and their finances would be those with observed poor performance. The current unsupported conclusion, however, it that desirable transport and land use policies are unlikely to emerge where these fiscal and financial weakness persist. 6. In a system of cities Countries or regions that develop national or regional strategies have more instruments and more options in terms of managing the consequences of growth. China is an obvious example in Asia of a country that has been successful pursuing a systematic regional strategy. Well-designed intergovernmental fiscal systems can create effective incentives for local and regional administrations to make prompt and appropriate choices for transportation, planning, land management and land use. Within limits, new communities and new towns can channel growth to particular locations. In addition, intercity transportation and communications alternatives can influence the location of growth, as well as the rates of growth at these locations. As noted above, these options vary with fiscal/financial capacities. There are risks, however. Misguided national policies may result in wasted public resources or promote inappropriate local responses. Examples include attempts to curb rural urban migration and at one period in the United States, programs that built unwanted freeways through poor neighborhoods. Many of these policy failures result from a single sector view of problems and solutions. 7. In Conclusion What can cities and countries do? Policy makers may find it useful to construct a matrix of opportunities that may look like the following: Country/ City Economic Status Growth Rate Implications Density/ Distribution Fiscal/ Financial Potential Table 2. Man ment Imp tions Transit Options Land Use Market and Regulatory Parameters Congestion Pollution Regulation Strong H.Moderate L Moderate Weak U R G E N T M a > n a g e High>Low Tight>Disb. Int.>Seg. High Low High Cap Low Cap All Lt rail DBL Reg sys Planning/ Zoning/ Land Markets Housing Finance and supply C.pricing F.Pricing Incentives Inspection/ Regulation The use of this matrix would be to discipline consideration of the inter-related factors that should determine the choice of policy, investment, regulatory and management options. Whereas it may be difficult for countries and cities to move rapidly up the economic ladder, there is little reason not to focus on improving fiscal and financial management and hence, performance. Not only does the range of feasible choices expand, so too does the ability to manage the investments and regulatory choices that would necessarily follow.