Polar Climate Outlook Forum (PCOF):

Transcription

1 WMO World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Polar Climate Outlook Forum (PCOF): A mechanism for improved adaptation strategies and outcomes Leslie Malone, Howard Cattle, Barry Goodison, Jaakko Helminen, Kumar Kolli, Holger Meinke, Vladimir Ryabinin, Eduard Sarukhanian, Francis Zwiers Arctic Change December 2008 Quebec, QC, Canada

2 The PolarCLIPS People so far Brazil: Alberto Setzer, Canada: Barry Goodison, Francis Zwiers, Chile: Jorge Carrasco, Denmark: Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen Finland: Jaakko Helminen, Germany: Martin Werscheck, Hungary: Sandor Szalai, Iceland: Thorsteinn Thorsteinsson, India: N.T. Niyas, Netherlands: Holger Meinke, Norway: Inger Hanssen-Bauer, Eirik Forland, Russian Federation: Elena Akentyeva, Vladimir Kattsov, Alexander Klepikov, Vladimir Kryzhov, Vasily Smolanitsky, Alexander Zaitsev United Kingdom: Howard Cattle USA: Amy Holman, Henry Huntington AMAP: Lars-Otto Reiersen ESA: Einer-Arne Herland Secretariat: Kumar Kolli, Leslie Malone, Vladimir Ryabinin, Eduard Sarukhanian

3 Overview WMO and its climate activities Regional Climate Outlook Forums Extension of this to polar regions (PCOFs) St Petersburg results

4 World Meteorological Organization The UN System s Authoritative Voice on the state and behaviour of the Earth's atmosphere, its interaction with the oceans, the climate it produces and the resulting distribution of water resources. Established in 1950 as a UN Specialized Agency (1873, IMO) 188 Member states and territories

5 Integrated framework of WMO s climate activities Understanding Processes Observing & Monitoring the Climate Surface, upper-air and ocean networks, satellite observations Developing Response Options Impact assessment, mitigation of greenhouse gases Climate diagnostics, Climate modelling Adapting Strategies Vulnerability assessment and socio-economic impacts Predicting Climate Seasonal to interannual prediction, climate change projections Climate Information and Applications Water resources, health, energy, tourism and agriculture, etc. Often not userfriendly

6 Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) A key component of WMO CLIPS project activities Pioneered in Africa, 1996, RCOF Concept spread worldwide Supported by WMO, NMHSs, research institutions, regional and international orgs (e.g. World Bank)

7 RCOFs A COF is a get-together a meeting of climate experts and user groups in an open forum where all available information on current climate and predictions for the season ahead is reviewed, and discussed. There is often divergence between the information received from different sources. In a COF, common elements are highlighted, leading to greater confidence in those aspects. COFs build capacity providers learn from each other, share experience, and receive technical training in techniques. Users learn about the products and their uncertainties, and how to interpret and apply the information. COFs provide a regular platform for interdisciplinary interaction, particularly at important changes of season. UNFCCC recognizes COFs as an effective adaptation tool.

8 Existing RCOFs worldwide (

9 CLIPS in Polar Regions There is a need for consistent, useful, operational climate information, products and services for high latitudes: Rapid change is affecting traditional way of life, health and safety; threatens land-based, freshwater and marine species. Industry including land and marine transportation, tourism, new fisheries, mining, oil and gas exploration and energy production must consider climate variability and change in planning and operations.

10 Problems that need climate input Community or airstrip relocation due to sea level rise, flooding, coastal erosion, or permafrost degradation Flood induced contamination of freshwater supply Protection of species Siting of energy development facilities (oil, gas) Fire safety (ecosystems and human communities) Safety of people engaged in traditional foodgathering activities Courtesy Amy Holman

11 Context It is not easy to provide information and services to populations living and working in these challenging and remote environments. Technology and automation both help and hinder delivery of valued services: automated observations of the climate, semiautomated production of forecasts, automated service delivery mechanisms do ensure that some information flows to users BUT lack of provider-user interaction hinders uptake/use

12 Questions Environmental, economic, political and social conditions at high latitudes are changing rapidly.people, sectors, governments need climate information for decision-making*. There is a need to identify vulnerability and climate information requirements, to improve the flow of useful information for decisionmaking, and to facilitate effective use of this information through improved liaison with user groups. Can we find a way to ensure they have high quality, useful products and services, reduce uncertainty, build resilience? Can we identify opportunities for collaboration between NMHSs, northern organizations, partners and other stakeholders to do this? What are the risks of inaction? *decisions will not wait until we have better obs, better predictions

13 IPY Legacies are many: New data, and observing and monitoring programmes New research findings better understanding of the climate and environment Improved political and international cooperation An informed public Probability of this momentum leading to even more research, observations, understanding because of IPY, and the commitments made by governments to support the IPY The real challenge (David Carlson): to take what we have accomplished and put it to work, make it last. GCW, and PolarCLIPS are meant to contribute to this

14 WMO World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO WCRP IPY Workshop on CLIPS in Polar Regions: Climate product generation, user liaison and training 8-11 September 2008 St Petersburg, Russian Federation Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch, Climate and Water Department

15 PolarCLIPS Workshop Agreement to continue to scope the PCOF concept with care to build a process that would be international, collaborative, practical and user focused, that would: Raise capacity of science providers through training Raise capacity of user groups to understand and use climate products Put IPY information and benefits to use demonstrate benefits Aim to become operational in due course Benefit from further research advances (eg modeling) Build on the IPY efforts that have opened new facilities, and the community efforts to adopt a science focus Provide a platform for interaction and feedback Contribute to the proposed WMO Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW)

16 PolarCLIPS Workshop Recommendations (1) Exploit climate data especially new IPY datasets Measure the ECVs; Promote polar supersites Correct precipitation datasets for known biases Improve remote sensing of rainfall and snowfall Promote free/open exchange of climate information Conduct research into downscaling and improving predictions improve models for high latitude areas Develop/share statistical tools (e.g. for extremes) Provide climate monitoring products to users, with information on interpretation and use

17 PolarCLIPS Workshop Recommendations (2) ID the climate vulnerability of users at high latitudes and needs for climate information to address these surveys Improve interdisciplinary collaboration and user liaison Develop new info and operational products for decisionmaking Develop the concept of PCOF as a viable operational mechanism to facilitate user services and feedback Publish PCOF concept in peer-reviewed journal Build capacity, including technical training for providers and joint efforts for providers and users together

18 Benefits Identification of new or improved information, products and services required by users Improved use of climate information in decision-making Traditional knowledge face to face with modern science: Involving affected communities brings a wide array of benefits Improved two-way communication on climate-related issues Courtesy Henry Huntington

19 PolarCLIPS Next Steps GCW liaison Surveys Arctic Change 2008 The paper Information brochures WCC-3..

20 CLIPS in Polar Regions For more information, please contact: Dr. R. K. Kolli Chief, World Climate Applications and Services Division (WCAS) Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch (CLPA) Climate and Water Department (CLW) World Meteorological Organization Tel: Fax: Leslie Malone Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch (CLPA) Climate and Water Department (CLW) World Meteorological Organization Tel: Fax:

21 Thank you Merci Спасибо Gracias شكرا 谢谢谢谢