Regional and Global Climate Modeling: Portfolio and Plans

Transcription

1 Regional and Global Climate Modeling: Portfolio and Plans Renu Joseph Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program CESD, US DOE CESM Advisory Board Meeting June 18,2012 Office of Science Office of Biological 1 CESM Advisory Board Meeting, Breckenridge, CO, Jun 18, 2012 and Environmental Research Department of Energy, Office of Science

2 Climate and Environmental Sciences Division Gary Geernaert Atmospheric Science Climate and Earth System Modeling Environmental System Science Atmospheric System Research (Ashley Williamson) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (Wanda Ferrell) Regional & Global Climate Modeling (Renu Joseph) Earth System Modeling (Dorothy Koch) Integrated Assessment (Bob Vallario) Terrestrial Ecosystem Science (Mike Kuperberg, Dan Stover) Subsurface Biogeochemical Research (David Lesmes, Paul Bayer) Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (Paul Bayer) 2 CESM Advisory Board Meeting, Breckenridge, CO, Jun 18, 2012 Department of Energy, Office of Science

3 Climate Modeling, over the years 3 CESM Advisory Board Meeting, Breckenridge, CO, Jun 18, 2012 Department of Energy, Office of Science

4 Outline Large Projects (Labs and Cooperative Agreements) Directly linked with CESM Indirectly linked with CESM Smaller Projects Directly linked with CESM Indirectly linked with CESM 4 CESM Advisory Board Meeting, Breckenridge, CO, Jun 18, 2012 Department of Energy, Office of Science

5 Development of Frameworks for Robust Regional Climate Modeling (PNNL, LANL, LBNL, ORNL) : $3M A hierarchical framework is used to evaluate approaches to high resolution modeling using simulations progressing from simple to complex and from idealized to real world How important is representing scale interactions? Is coupling of atmosphere/ocean important at regional scales? Is climate feedback sensitive to different approaches and how? CAM-SE CAM MPAS WRF Global Model Regional Model Global high resolution model Global variable resolution model Nested regional 5 climate model 5 CESM Advisory Board Meeting, Breckenridge, CO, Jun 18, 2012 Department of Energy, Office of Science

6 Error = GHR - GVR Precipitation Anomalous Circulation MPAS Dependence of cloud parameterizations on resolution is clear Grid refinement approaches make a difference WRF Zonal asymmetry associated with Gill response to localized heating July 9, 2012 Need careful diagnosis of regional patterns in real world simulations 6 CESM Advisory Board Meeting, Breckenridge, CO, Jun 18, 2012 Department of Energy, Office of Science

7 Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling : COSIM (LANL): $2.5M Evaluate ocean and ice in highlatitude climate change to project impacts of high-latitude change on regions throughout the globe. Science drivers Ice sheets and sea level rise Stability of ocean circulation Arctic biogeochemistry and rapid ice retreat Model development POP/HYPOP/MPAS-Ocean CICE High resolution and multi-resolution climate simulation 7 CESM Advisory Board Meeting, Breckenridge, CO, Jun 18, 2012 Department of Energy, Office of Science

8 Reducing uncertainties associated with terrestrial carbon cycle-climate system feedbacks (ORNL,LANL,LBNL,UCI):~$1.2M Tropical Forest (ORNL) Integration of phosphorus with existing C-N coupling in CLM Evaluation against experimental results Temperate Forest (LANL) Improvement of ecosystem demography model (ED): nitrogen allocation and hydrology Integration of ED within CLM: PFT cohorts Arctic ecosystems (LBNL) Characterize soil C stocks and permafrost state Evaluate candidate belowground models Integration (UCI, ORNL, all) Develop new coupled-model diagnostic tools (CLAMP2) Evaluate CMIP5 model results Exercise and evaluate CESM with new CLM processes 8 CESM Advisory Board Meeting, Breckenridge, CO, Jun 18, 2012 Department of Energy, Office of Science

9 DOE/UCAR Cooperative Agreement ~ $3M Project Lead Scientist: Warren Washington; Deputy Lead Scientist: Gerald Meehl The only group officially tasked to perform the large number of standard climate change simulations with CCSM/CESM; Represent CESM in CMIP (e.g. CMIP5) and make the model data available for the IPCC and US National assessments Conducts sensitivity experiments and does diagnostics to advance human knowledge of climate variability and change the main infrastructure and analysis mechanism of the CVCWG Improvement of atmospheric component of CESM, focusing on theory and observations to improve the simulations 9 CESM Advisory Board Meeting, Breckenridge, CO, Jun 18, 2012 Department of Energy, Office of Science

10 Cloud-Associated Parameterization Testbed (LLNL): $1M (RGCM, ASR) Integrating climate models in weather-forecast mode has been extensively used in the CAPT project present at NCAR and LLNL. This helps with: comparing climate model simulations to field-campaign data (e.g. ARM sites) identifying the sources of climate errors associated with cloud parameterizations Recent Accomplishments and Activities 6-day hindcasts of CAM4 and CAM5 have been performed for each day in the Years of Tropical Convection (YOTC, ): A strong correspondence exists between short and long- timescale CAM errors CAM5 well simulates the 1st indirect effect of aerosols on low-level liquid clouds CAM5 has an improved simulation, relative to CAM4, of low-level Arctic clouds Studying MJO sensitivities of CAM5 with perturbed parameter hindcasts 10 CESM Advisory Board Meeting, Breckenridge, CO, Jun 18, 2012 Department of Energy, Office of Science

11 Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison: PCMDI Scientific leadership of community modeling activities (e.g., AMIP, CMIP) PCMDI 11 CESM Advisory Board Meeting, Breckenridge, CO, Jun 18, 2012 Department of Energy, Office of Science

12 Model and NASA/JPL observation Overlap For what quantities are these comparisons viable? Target Quantities Model Output Variables AIRS ( 300 hpa) MLS (< 300 hpa) QuikSCAT TES AMSR-E TOPEX/JASON CERES TRMM MODIS Atm temp profile Specific humidity profile Atm temp profile Specifc humidity profile Ocean surface winds Ozone profile SST SSH TOA radiation fluxes Total precipitation Cloud fraction Net primary production ~ ~ Satellite Retrieval Variables After much scrutiny and two workshops, only ~20 variables were identified as being safely comparable in this first round although still with caveats! Continue to consider additional datasets Model-pull for additional satellite observations Model-push for additional model output variables. 12 CESM Advisory Board Meeting, Breckenridge, CO, Jun 18, 2012 Department of Energy, Office of Science

13 Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison: PCMDI Scientific leadership of community modeling activities (e.g., AMIP, CMIP) Leadership of software development and infrastructure support for community modeling activities Development and application of broad brush climate model performance metrics PCMDI Studies of aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and radiation processes Climate change detection and attribution research Cloud-Climate Feedbacks Project Diagnosis of global climate models (variability, hydrological cycle, land surface processes, ocean heat content and circulation) 13 CESM Advisory Board Meeting, Breckenridge, CO, Jun 18, 2012 Department of Energy, Office of Science

14 Regional Arctic System Model (RASM):$1M Atmosphere - Polar WRF Land Hydrology VIC Ocean - LANL/POP Sea Ice - LANL/CICE Flux Coupler NCAR CPL7 Dynamic Vegetation VIC(4.1.1) + CLM(4.0) Dynamic Ice Sheet Glimmer-CISM plus Glacier and Ice Caps (GIC) 10 institution collaboration Focus on variability and long-term change of energy and freshwater flows through the arctic climate system 14 CESM Advisory Board Meeting, Breckenridge, CO, Jun 18, 2012 Department of Energy, Office of Science

15 University Projects Projects funded through the joint ESM-RGCM SciDAC Solicitation: ~$3M Permafrost and Carbon Cycle Modeling Uncertainty Quantification High Resolution/Multiscale Modeling University projects funded through the solicitation on Modes of Variability: ~$3M Focused on Modes of Variability Extremes Understanding Uncertainties Projects funded through the joint ASR-RGCM solicitation: ~$2M 1. Turbulence parameterization Intercomparison 2. MJO s 3. Double ITCZ 4. Aerosols and Air-sea interaction 5. Uniform parameterization for CESM Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction using Earth System Models (EaSM) ~$3M 15 CESM Advisory Board Meeting, Breckenridge, CO, Jun 18, 2012 Department of Energy, Office of Science

16 The Science That We Focus on And Why? High Resolution Modeling to obtain reliable climate predictions and projections and to understand climate and energy impacts and interactions at local and regional scales Focus on regions of the globe that are climatically sensitive and vital for assessing future climate. (e.g., Arctic, Tropics) Model Analyses to improve our understanding of the climate system including Distinction between natural variability and anthropogenic climate change Extreme event representation and attribution Understanding the feedbacks and interactions between processes Quantification of the uncertainties and feedbacks in the climate system to understand how reliable the projections/predictions are Tools for Data Dissemination 16 CESM Advisory Board Meeting, Breckenridge, CO, Jun 18, 2012 Department of Energy, Office of Science

17 Categorization of current projects 17 CESM Advisory Board Meeting, Breckenridge, CO, Jun 18, 2012 Department of Energy, Office of Science

18 Inter Program Linkages within CESD Atmospheric System Research Terrestrial Ecosystem Science Earth System Modeling Regional and Global Climate Modeling Integrated Assessment Research 18 CESM Advisory Board Meeting, Breckenridge, CO, Jun 18, 2012 Department of Energy, Office of Science

19 Backups 19 CESM Advisory Board Meeting, Breckenridge, CO, Jun 18, 2012 Department of Energy, Office of Science

20 24 global climate modeling groups are participating in CMIP5 with 50+ models Nearly all models have performed some experiments and placed output in the CMIP5 archive Data currently available from 53 models from 23 groups, 1200 Tb of data (growing to ~3000 Tb) (CMIP3 had 16 groups and 23 models, 35 Tb of data). 8 ESMs included so far 14 groups have done decadal prediction experiments Included are several high-resolution AGCMs (<50 km) 20 CESM Advisory Board Meeting, Breckenridge, CO, Jun 18, 2012 Department of Energy, Office of Science

21 A first glimpse at MPAS ocean simulation Variable resolution from 50km to 10km in the North Atlantic 21 CESM Advisory Board Meeting, Breckenridge, CO, Jun 18, 2012 Department of Energy, Office of Science 21