Saskatchewan. Labour Demand Outlook 2018 to 2022

Transcription

1 Saskatchewan Labour Demand Outlook 2018 to 2022

2 An estimated 98,700 job openings are forecast for Saskatchewan from 2018 to A large majority of these job openings, 74,700 (76 per cent), are due to expected replacement of retiring workers (referred to as replacement demand). The remaining 24,000 job openings (24 per cent) are due to expected economic activity in the province (referred to as expansion demand). This report provides an overview of Saskatchewan s forecasted job openings by occupational group and by education/skill levels. Forecasted numbers reflect current and anticipated economic conditions and are susceptible to market uncertainty. Demand for Workers by Education Level Each occupation has education, skills or that is typically required to perform the main job duties. For forecasted job openings in the province, there is demand for both higher-skilled and lower-skilled workers. 62 per cent of job openings are for higher-skilled occupations that require either management expertise, a university degree, a postsecondary diploma or certificate, or apprenticeship. There are also opportunities in lower-skilled occupations, as 38 per cent of job openings require either high school completion, (or occupation-specific ), or on-the-job- with less than high school completion (Figure 1). The largest number of job openings are expected for occupations that require high school completion (28,600 job openings) or a post-secondary diploma or certificate, or apprenticeship (27,900 job openings). Figure 1. Forecasted Job Openings in Saskatchewan by Education/Skill Level, 2018 to ,700 Net Job Openings High school/ occupationspecific 29% Less than high school/ on-the-job 9% Management 19% Post-secondary diploma/certificate/ apprenticeship 28% University degree 15% 1

3 Replacement demand accounts for 76% of job openings Replacement demand affects occupations of all education and skill levels, but is more prevalent in higher-skilled job openings, accounting for 88 per cent of managementrelated job openings and 80 per cent of job openings that require a post-secondary diploma or certificate, or apprenticeship. Out of the five skill levels, expansion demand plays a larger role in jobs that require a university degree or that are lower-skilled. See figure 2 for future job openings due to expansion demand and replacement demand for each education or skill level. Figure 2. Forecasted Job Openings Due to Expansion Demand and Replacement Demand by Education/Skill Level, 2018 to 2022 Expansion Replacement 18,100 14,900 16,000 2,100 Management 27,900 22,200 28,600 19,900 9,200 10,200 4,700 University degree 5,700 8,700 Post-secondary High school/ diploma/certificate/ occupation-specific apprenticeship 6,400 2,800 Less than high school/on-the-job 2

4 Demand for Workers by Occupational Group Three occupational groups sales and service; business, finance and administration; and trades, transport and equipment operators together account for almost 60 per cent of total job openings over the forecast period. Another 30 per cent of future openings are expected for occupations in education, law, social community and government; natural resources and agriculture; and health. Replacement demand is a key driver in all occupational groups, especially in natural resources and agriculture where it accounts for all new job openings (largely because of anticipated retiring farmers), and manufacturing and utilities where it accounts for 89 per cent of job openings. Expansion demand has a greater impact on occupations in education, law and social, community and government services and occupations in sales and service, accounting for more than a third of job openings in these occupational groups. See Figure 3 for future job openings due to expansion demand and replacement demand for each occupational group. Figure 3. Forecasted Job Openings Due to Expansion Demand and Replacement Demand by Occupational Group, Saskatchewan, 2018 to 2022 Net Job Openings Sales & service 8,200 Business/Finance/Administration 4,500 Trades/Transport/Equipment operators 3,100 Education/Law & social community/gov't 4,600 Natural resources/agriculture 15,500 13,300 13,900 Natural & applied sciences 1,200 Manufacturing/Utilities 300 Art, culture, recreation & sport 500 Senior management ,700 10,000 2,300 Health 9,100 5,400 7,700 3,600 2,500 1,300 1,100 17,800 17,000 8, ,700 4,800 Expansion Replacement 2,800 1,800 1,300 3

5 Job Openings by Occupational Group and Education Level Management related jobs account for 19 per cent of total job openings, which are higher-skilled jobs that have high levels of responsibility, accountability and subject matter expertise. A significant share of these job openings are for senior management positions, but most are middle management job openings that are spread across the various occupational groups. In the natural resources and agriculture group, management occupations account for nearly three-quarters of job openings, largely because of managers in agriculture (mainly farmers) who have considerable job knowledge, skills and experience. Middle management occupations also account for a larger share of job openings in the sales and services group and the manufacturing and utilities group, 19 per cent and 18 per cent respectively. See Table 1 for the number of future job openings by occupational group and skill level. Table 1. Forecasted Net Job Openings by Occupational Group and Education/Skill Level, Saskatchewan, 2018 to 2022 Management University degree Post-secondary diploma/cert./ apprenticeship High school/ occupationspecific Less than high school/ on-the-job Total Sales & service 4,600 4,800 6,800 7,400 23,700 Business/Finance/Administration 1,700 2,500 7,100 6,400 17,800 Trades/Transport/Equipment operators 1,400 7,200 7, ,000 Type Title Education/Law & social community/gov't 900 6,400 2,500 2,800 12,700 6, , ,100 Health 400 3,400 1,700 2,200 7,700 Natural & applied sciences 400 2,000 2,400 4,800 Manufacturing/Utilities , ,800 Art, culture, recreation & sport ,000 1,800 Natural resources/agriculture Senior management 1,300 1,300 Total 18,100 14,900 27,900 28,600 9,200 98,700 Notes: represents not applicable or no data to report. Net job openings are the sum of openings due to expansion demand and replacement demand. Numbers may not always add up to totals due to rounding. 4

6 Most occupational groups have a greater number of higher-skilled job openings than lower-skilled job openings. In fact, all occupations categorized in the natural and applied sciences group and the art, culture, recreation and sport group are higher-skilled by definition. Higher-skilled jobs represent a greater share of the job openings in occupational groups such as art, culture, recreation and sport (100 per cent), education, law and social, community and government services (78 per cent), natural resources and agriculture (78 per cent), health (71 per cent) and business, finance and administration (64 per cent). However, there is still demand for lower-skilled jobs, more so in occupational groups such as manufacturing and utilities; sales and services; and trades, transport and equipment operators. See Figure 4 for the proportion of higher-skilled and lowerskilled job openings for each occupation group. Figure 4. Proportion of Forecasted Job Openings that are Higher-Skilled and Lower-Skilled by Occupational Group, Saskatchewan, 2018 to 2022 Natural & applied sciences Art, culture, recreation & sport Senior management Natural resources/agriculture Education/Law & social community/gov't 78% 78% 100% 100% 100% 22% 22% Health 71% 29% Business/Finance/Administration 64% 36% Trades/Transport/Equipment operators 50% 50% Sales & service Manufacturing/Utilities 40% 39% 60% 61% Higher-Skilled Jobs Lower-Skilled Jobs 5

7 Expansion-driven and Replacement-driven Occupations Future job openings can be driven more by expansion demand or by replacement demand. Table 2 shows the top 15 occupations with the highest number of job openings due to expansion demand (column A) and the top 15 replacement demand occupations (column B) over the forecast period. Seven of the occupations are common to both lists (indicated by ). Transport truck drivers have the highest number of expansion-driven job openings and managers in agriculture (mainly farmers) have the highest number of replacement-driven job openings. See Table 2 for the top 15 expansion-drive and replacement-driven occupations, based on the highest number of future job openings. Table 2. Top 15 Expansion-Driven and Replacement-Driven Occupations, 2018 to 2022 A. Expansion-driven Occupations B. Replacement-driven Occupations Transport truck drivers Managers in agriculture Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations Retail and wholesale trade managers Elementary school and kindergarten teachers Transport truck drivers Retail salespersons Retail salespersons Food and beverage servers General farm workers Cooks Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses Administrative officers Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents Retail and wholesale trade managers Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates General office support workers Secondary school teachers Cashiers Administrative assistants Light duty cleaners Restaurant and food service managers Elementary school and kindergarten teachers Early childhood educators and assistants Accounting technicians and bookkeepers Janitors, caretakers and building superintendents Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 6

8 Summary of Job Openings, 2018 to 2022 Table 3. Summary of Job Openings, 2018 to 2022 Job Openings, Expansion Replacement Total % share of total By Skill Level Management 2,100 16,000 18,100 18% University degree 4,700 10,200 14,900 15% Post-secondary diploma/certificate/apprenticeship 5,700 22,200 27,900 28% High school/occupation-specific 8,700 19,900 28,600 29% Less than high school/on-the-job 2,800 6,400 9,200 9% Total 24,000 74,700 98, % By Occupational Group Sales & service 8,200 15,500 23,700 Business/Finance/Administration 4,500 13,300 17,800 18% Trades/Transport/Equipment operators 3,100 13,900 17,000 17% Education/Law & social community/gov't 4,600 8,100 12,700 13% Natural resources/agriculture ,000 9,100 9% Health 2,300 5,400 7,700 8% Natural & applied sciences 1,200 3,600 4,800 5% Manufacturing/Utilities 300 2,500 2,800 3% Art, culture, recreation & sport 500 1,300 1,800 2% Senior management 200 1,100 1,300 1% Total 24,000 74,700 98, % Note: Total job openings by skill type are sorted in descending order. Numbers may not add up to totals due to rounding. 7

9 Assumptions, Definition and National Occupational Classification The forecast is based on Saskatchewan Finance s 2018/19 budget assumptions and output from the Saskatchewan Occupational Modelling System that is proprietary to Stokes Economic Consulting Inc. Forecast data reflects current and expected economic conditions at the time of the development of the forecast scenario (spring 2018). Changes in economic conditions, such as unforeseen fluctuations in commodity prices and changes in economic activity may impact forecasted labour demand. The forecast does not reflect current job vacancies and does not distinguish between full-time and part-time jobs. Job openings are defined as the sum of expansion demand (new jobs generated through economic activity) and replacement demand (existing jobs that have been vacated, mainly due to retirement, and require replacement). The 2016 National Occupational Classification (NOC) system provides a standardized framework for organizing occupations according to skill level and occupational group. Skill level classifies occupations by the level of education or that is usually required for a given occupation, and occupational group classifies occupations based on the type of work performed. The following table provides a description of the skill levels used in this document. For more information regarding the classification of occupations by skill level and type, see Table 4. Skill Levels Based on the NOC 2016 System Skill Levels Based on the NOC 2016 System Skill Level Level of education or usually required Management University degree Post-secondary diploma/certificate/apprenticeship High school/occupation-specific Less than high school/on-the-job Management is characterized by high levels of responsibility, accountability and subject matter expertise. Expertise is acquired through either formal education or extensive occupational experience. University degree (bachelor s, master s or doctorate) Two to three years of post-secondary education at community college, institute of technology or CÉGEP; or Two to five years of apprenticeship ; or Three to four years of secondary school and more than two years of on-the-job, occupation specific courses or specific work experience; or Occupations with supervisory responsibilities; or Occupations with significant health and safety responsibilities. Completion of secondary school and some short-duration courses or specific to the occupation; or Some secondary school education, with up to two years of on-the-job, courses or specific work experience. Short work demonstration or on-the-job ; or No formal educational requirements 8