Quantifying the Costs and Benefits on SLCP Action

Transcription

1 Quantifying the Costs and Benefits on SLCP Action Toshihiko MASUI National Institute for Environmental Studies iam.nies.go.jp/aim/ex.htm Breakout Session: Bringing SLCPs and PM2. into Integrated Air Pollution and Climate Change Strategies in Asia: Linking Science, s, and Action ISAP14 July 23, 14 Pacifico Yokohama,Japan The research in this presentation is supported by the Environment Research and Teology Development Fund (S 12 2) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, and Climate Change Research Program of NIES. 1 Benefits of air pollution policies Based on Asian low carbon scenario (, toward 2 degree tet), effectiveness of air pollution policies are assessed. LLGHG mitigation : Without LLGHG mitigation : Global GHG emissions in will be half to those in 199. Air pollution reduction (SOx, NOx, and VOC) : Without air pollution reduction Air: Reducing air pollution SOx and NOx: Emissions in will be half to those in. VOC: Emissions in will be reduced by % to those in. By using AIM (Asia Pacific Integrated ), the future emissions under the above policies are assessed. 1

2 Results from Environment Research and Teology Development Fund (S 6), MOEJ Two Scenarios toward Low Carbon in Asia Advanced Society Scenario Overall Features Society t is highly motivated and actively working to achieve a transition to next generation social systems, programs, teologies etc. Economy Average annual growth rate: 3.27%/year (global) 4.16%/year (Asia) Population Total population in : 6.9 billion (global) and 4.6 billion (Asia) Education Active efforts to improve education Average number of years of schooling: 4 12 years () years () Use of Time Diverse mix of lifestyles, but a comparatively long period of time spent on work and career advancement Conventional Society Scenario Society t is cautious about making changes to social systems, programs, teologies and so on and t is concerned about the transition costs of social change. Average annual growth rate: 2.24%/year (global) 2.98%/year (Asia) Total population in : 6.9 billion (global) and 4.6 billion (Asia) Standard improvements to educational policy Average number of years of schooling: 4 12 years () 8 13 years () Diverse mix of lifestyles, but a comparatively long period of time spent on time with family and friends Unemployment Full employment in 7 Fixed at 9 level Government Efficiency Improved from a comparatively early stage Improved gradually at a slow pace International Cooperation Lower trade barriers and reduced foreign direct investment risk Gradual progress in establishing cooperative relationships among countries in Asia Teical Innovation High rate of advancement Gradual advancement Transportation Increased demand resulting from high economic growth Gradual increase in demand rate Land Use Speedy and efficient land improvement Gradual and cautious land improvement 3 Results from Environment Research and Teology Development Fund (S 6), MOEJ GHG emissions in Low Carbon Scenario GHG GHG emissions 排出量 [GtCO2eq/yr] 年 ] 7 方策 Reduction 1 都市内交通 による削減 due to Action 1 (urban transport) 方策 Reduction 2 地域間交通 による削減 due to Action 2 (interregional transport) 方策 Reduction 3 資源利用 による削減 due to Action 3 (resources & materials) 方策 Reduction 4 建築物 による削減 due to Action 4 (buildings) 方策 Reduction バイオマス による削減 due to Action (biomass) 方策 Reduction 6 エネルギーシステム による削減 due to Action 6 (energy system) 方策 Reduction 7 農業 畜産 による削減 due to Action 7 (agriculture & livestock) 方策 Reduction 8 森林 土地利用 による削減 due to Action 8 (forestry & land use) 方策以外の削減 Other reduction アジアの排出量 Emission in Asia () ( 低炭素社会 ) 世界の排出量 Global Emission (() 低炭素社会 ) 世界の排出量 Global Emission ((BaU) なりゆき社会 ) By Dr. S. Fujimori (NIES) 4 2

3 SOx emissions (MtSO2/yr) 1 1 x 1 1 +Air x 1 1 x 1 1 +Air x NOx emissions (MtNO2/yr) 1 1 x 1 1 +Air x 1 1 x 1 1 +Air x 6 3

4 CO2 emissions (GtCO2/yr) 4 x Air x x Air x 7 Coal consumption (EJ/yr) x Air x x Air 8 x 4

5 Climate mitigation and air pollution mitigation In (without LLGHG mitigation) scenario, both LLGHG and air pollution emissions be reduced by introducing air pollution policies. Not only installation of end of pipe teologies but also fuel switch, energy saving and other measures will be introduced. Even in scenario, not only air pollution but also LLGHG emissions be reduced in the short term. (It is assumed t in all countries will follow their Copenhagen tet in ) Climate mitigation and air pollution mitigation link together. Air pollution policies mitigate environmental impacts. What k of direct and irect benefits? How much to introduce air pollution policies? The Environment Research and Teology Development Fund (S 12), MOEJ Promotion of climate policies by assessing impacts of SLCP and LLGHG emission pathways (FY14 18) Theme1: Analysis on regional atmospheric quality change Emission inventory Inverse model to estimate emissions Regional atmosphere and environment assessment model Chemical transfer model and emission inventory in Asia Theme2: Socio economic and global emission scenarios Natuinal & local emission scenarios Urban & household emission and air quality assessment Emission inventory Assessment of activities/policies Future scenarios and events related to SLCP emissions Integrated assessment model Feedback of impacts Enduse model Socio economic and emission scenario Theme 4: Tool kit and data archive (synthesis system) Theme3: impact assessment of aerosol and GHG Assessment of health, agriculture, water and sea level rise Climate and environment model Climate model, earth system model climate change impact and adaptation Science model upgrading Definition of metric Database Solution of issues Policy maker Stakeholder system utilization CCAC, UNFCC, IPCC, EANET Proposal and assessment of climate and air pollution policies Society information transmission MDG, SDG, Future Earth Regional strategies Global strategies

6 Theme 4 Synthesis System Env. & Climate Impacts Theme 3 Env. & Climate Impacts Future scenarios Information for Negotiation to reduce GHG Assessment of Env. & Climate Policies in Asia S 12 2: Improvement of Integrated Assessment and Quantification of Future Scenarios Assessment of Mitigation Costs & Climate Change Impacts Socio economic Scenarios Considering Climate & Env. Impacts Future Socio Economic Scenarios Global Emission Scenarios on LLGHG & SLCP Sub theme (2) National Emission Scenarios on LLGHG & SLCP Local Emission Scenarios on LLGHG & SLCP Future scenarios Global CGE Global Enduse Improvement of Enduse (Local Activities & Pollution Management Teologies) National Enduse Household Local Air Pollution AIM Air Pollution Management Teologies Sub theme (1) Global LLGHG & SLCP Emission Scenarios Assessment of Actions & Policies National/Local Scale Air Pollution Management Policies & Event s Theme 1 Emission Inventory Improved Inventory Env. & Climate Policy in Japan Green: relation to other Yellow: relation to env. p model Sub theme (3) scenario research goals 11 Emissions from urban household in each province in China taking into account local climate and economic conditions Scenarios Baseline: only conventional teologies Countermeasure: optimal introduction of energy saving teologies From the viewpoints of ce effect relationship on air pollution, local emissions will be assessed in this project. By Dr. R. Xing (NIES) 12 6