Integrated assessment of air pollution and greenhouse gases mitigation in Europe

Transcription

1 See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: Integrated assessment of air pollution and greenhouse gases mitigation in Europe Article in Archiwum Ochrony Srodowiska January 2010 CITATIONS 11 READS 53 9 authors, including: Janusz Cofala International Institute for Applied Sys 129 PUBLICATIONS 4,655 CITATIONS Zbigniew Klimont International Institute for Applied Sys 228 PUBLICATIONS 10,236 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE Available from: Fabian Wagner Retrieved on: 22 July 2016

2 Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases Mitigation in Europe J. Cofala, M. Amann, W. Asman, I. Bertok, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, and F. Wagner International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

3 Content European air pollution policy process past and present Methodology of integrated assessment modeling Simulations for the revision of the NEC Directive Further steps link to climate policies

4 Air pollution policy in Europe - past UN/ECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (1979) SO 2 protocols 1985, 1994 NO x protocol 1988 VOC protocol 1991 Protocols on heavy metals and POPs 1998 Gothenburg Protocol (acid., eutroph. and ozone) 1999 EU Legislation Air Quality Directives ( ) Technology-related Directives (LCP, IPPC, solvents, Auto- Oil, etc.) National Emission Ceilings Directive (2001)

5 Policy process - recent 2003: Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) Programme established 2005: EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP) proposed 2007: Review of the NEC Directive based on targets from TSAP 2007: GHG reduction (burden sharing agreement) 2008: Review of the Gothenburg Protocol to CLRTAP

6 The RAINS multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework PM SO 2 NO x VOC NH 3 Health impacts: PM O 3 Vegetation damage: O 3 Acidification Eutrophication

7 Air pollution and greenhouse gases Critical linkages Emission originate from the same sources Aerosols/small particles cause health impacts and influence radiative forcing Tropospheric ozone damages health and vegetation and causes radiative forcing

8 The RAINS multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework extended to GHGs (GAINS) Economic synergies between emission controls Multiple benefits Health impacts: PM CFCs PM SO 2 NO x VOC NH 3 CO 2 CH 4 N 2 O HFCs SF 6 O 3 Vegetation damage: O O3 3 Acidification Eutrophication Radiative forcing: - direct - via aerosols -via OH

9 Multi-pollutant/multi-effect analysis for identifying cost-effective policy scenarios IIASA s RAINS computer model PM SO 2 NH 3 NO x VOC Health Eutrophication Acidification Ozone CAFE policy targets for 2020

10 The GAINS approach for identifying cost-effective emission control strategies (GHG-Air pollution INteractions and Synergies ) IIASA s GAINS optimization model PM SO 2 NH 3 NO x VOC GHGs Health Eutrophication Acidification Policy targets on air quality Ozone Policy target on GHG emissions

11 Uniform or effect-based scenarios? 20 Costs above REF (Billion EURO/yr) G5/3 G5/2 G5/1 UNIFORM PER CAPITA EMISSIONS UNIFORM % REDUCTION Population exposure index (million persons.ppm.hours) REF

12 Air pollutant emissions as a function of GHG mitigation (EU-15) 100% Air pollutant emissions relative to benchmark 95% 90% 85% 50 EUR/t CO 2 30 EUR/t CO 2 20 EUR/t CO 2 SO2 NOx PM2.5 80% 80% 82% 84% 86% 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100% GHG emissions relative to benchmark

13 Targets from the EU Thematic Strategy on AP Unit of the indicator Percentage improvement compared to the situation in 2000 Life years lost from particulate matter (YOLLs) Years of life lost 47 % Area of forest ecosystems where acid deposition exceeds the critical loads for acidification km 2 74 % Area of freshwater ecosystems where acid deposition exceeds the critical loads for acidification km 2 39 % Ecosystems area where nitrogen deposition exceeds the critical loads for eutrophication km 2 43 % Premature mortality from ozone Number of cases 10 % Area of forest ecosystems where ozone concentrations exceed the km 2 15 % critical levels for ozone 1)

14 Air pollution effects in 2000 PM Eutrophication Ozone Acid, forests Acid, lakes Acid, semi-nat.

15 Air pollution effects for TSAP targets 2020 PM Eutrophication Ozone Acid, forests Acid, lakes Acid, semi-nat.

16 Optimized NO x emissions - reduction from % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Rep. Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden UK EU-27 Croatia % of emissions in 2000 Turkey Norway Switzerland National projections Coherent scenario

17 Optimized PM2.5 emissions reduction from % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% % of emissions in 2000 Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Rep. Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden UK EU-27 Croatia Turkey Norway Switzerland National projections Coherent scenario

18 Costs of achieving environmental objectives National projections Coherent scenario National projections Coherent scenario National projections Coherent scenario National projections Coherent scenario National projections Coherent scenario Billion /yr Health impacts from PM Acidification Eutrophication Ground-level ozone Combined optimization SO2 NOX PM NH3 VOC

19 Scope for further CH 4 reductions from agriculture GAINS cost curve an example 250 Housing adaptation pigs EU-15: Diet changes cattle Euro/t CO2-eq Cattle diet: Propionate precursors Farm-scale Anerobic Digesters NMS-10: Diet changes dairy cows CH4 emissions (Mt CO2-eq)

20 Conclusions Integrated assessment models: Enable designing air pollution control policies and explore linkages with mitigation of greenhouse gases Help to explore a wide range scenarios and targets Assess co-benefits and synergies of combined policies and look for cost-optimal solutions Are widely used in all-european context Are also useful for national analysis (RAINS Netherlands, RAINS Italy) Work on integrated assessment framework for Poland needed

21 More information: