Impact and Baselines. Isabelle Kidney

Transcription

1 Impact and Baselines Isabelle Kidney

2 What is Impact? Significant and lasting changes in peoples lives as identified by them (including unexpected changes both positive and negative) Impact Chain Inputs Human & Financial Resources & Materials Outputs Deliverables: trained, set-up, resources produced) Outcomes Intermediate changes: knowledge, uptake Impact Changes in health, livelihoods, empowerment Intent / Design Inputs / Internal Systems / Activities Outputs Outcomes Impact Social Performance Management Impact Assessment Impact evaluations differ from other evaluations in that they are focused on assessing causality. Impact evaluation not only provides evidence as to whether aid works but also how to make it work better

3 Impact Assessment of Support to Credit Unions in Ghana Developments over a longer period: Income Income is more secured Better off now Income has improved 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Others Other credit union members CCA supported credit union members

4 What is the evidence of the impact of microfinance on the well-being of poor people? The worry is that microcredit in particular might leave some people worse off... Savings and money transfer services cause less concern Well-known studies which claim to have found positive impacts on females are based on weak research designs There is no statistically convincing evidence...to either support or contradict the main claims of beneficence of microfinance. Almost all impact evaluations of microfinance suffer from weak methodologies and inadequate data.

5 Good Practice for Impact Evaluations An estimate of the counterfactual (what would have happened if this person did not take part in this program?) has been made by using control groups Relevant data is collected at baseline and end of the program (including sufficient time frame to allow for program impacts). The treatment (beneficiary) and comparison groups are of sufficient sizes to establish statistically sound correlations Qualitative techniques are incorporated to allow for the triangulation, to help with designing quantitative surveys, looking at processes, getting perspectives on survey findings

6 Conducting Baselines A baseline provides a detailed picture of the target populations situation in relation to objectives and indicators at the beginning of an intervention. It is a starting point against which we can compare progress

7 West African Credit Unions Against Poverty Capacity Building Expansion into Underserved Areas National apex body developed & strengthened Credit Unions & member-ship Regional Hub & Steering Group Poor and Extremely poor Knowledge Management Value Chain & Graduation Microfinance

8 Baseline Survey: The Gambia Household Survey using Poverty Scoring Tool Analysis of CU use by rural members Gender Issues /FGDs Wealth ranking

9 Poverty Scoring Tool Household (human) polygamy, no. of people, dependents, children / schooling House (physical) - floor, roof, no. of rooms, walls, toilet, energy House (assets) small, medium, large in value Employment of coping strategies no. of meals etc. Dealing with sickness

10 Poverty Scores among Households in 4 Regions

11 Gender: Qualitative Issues Inheritance, spending patterns, GBV, community politics

12 Credit Union Use Average savings Frequency of savings % of members in the medium and high savings categories Participation of women in membership and savings Participation of women in borrowing Good repayment rates Trends in the reasons for borrowing

13 Breakdown of Savings and Loans

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