Observations on US Renewable Energy Trends

Transcription

1 Observations on US Renewable Energy Trends Ryan Pletka 32 nd IAEE Conference June Copyright 2009 Black & Veatch Holding Company

2 Agenda Where are we at? Where are we going? Challenges to getting there Observations on a couple of large initiatives Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative Western Renewable Energy Zones Footer - 2

3 Historically, Renewables Provided a Fraction of Electricity: 2008 U.S. Electricity Generation Natural Gas 21.6% Nuclear 19.7% Petroleum 1.1% Hydro 5.9% Wind 1.3% Geothermal 0.37% Biomass Coal 1.4% 48.6% Renewables 3.0% Solar 0.02% Source: EIA Footer - 3

4 Cost of Annual North American Capacity Additions $ Millions 40,000 35,000 Other Fossil 30,000 25,000 Gas 20,000 Gas 15,000 10,000 Renewable Energy: 62% Wind 5,000 - Wind Other Renew. Footer - 4 Source: Installed Capacity Data: UDI, 2007, 2008 Ventyx, Credit Suisse for Solar PV. Capital cost assumptions: Black & Veatch.

5 Annual Capacity Additions, MWa (average megawatts) Annual Additions -- Average Capacity, MWa Footer - 5 1,250 1, Wind Solar Geothermal Municipal Waste Biomass Solar Geothermal Biomass Waste Wind 2007: 1500 MWa 2008: 2500 MWa Wind Black & Veatch Analysis of data from Global Energy Decisions Energy Velocity database. Solar PV in 2008 from Credit Suisse estimate.

6 Annual Capacity Additions, MW (nameplate megawatts) Annual Additions -- Nameplate Capacity, MW 10,000 Wind Solar 9,000 Geothermal 8,000 Municipal Waste Biomass 7,000 Wind 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Footer Black & Veatch Analysis of data from Global Energy Decisions Energy Velocity database. Solar PV in 2008 from Credit Suisse estimate.

7 Major Drivers for Renewables in the US Expanded State Initiatives (RPS) Tax Credit Extension and Changes Financial Crisis Greenhouse Legislation Changing Resource Economics Renewables competitive? Transmission Constraints Footer - 7

8 Renewable Energy is Generally Competitive Depending on Price of Gas Solar PV Solar Thermal Gas, Coal, & Nuclear TOD value TOD value Hydro Biomass upgrades cofiring Geothermal Wind Landfill Gas Levelized Cost of Energy ($/MWh) Footer - 8 Source: B&V estimates for typical US projects. Includes ITC for solar, PTC for others. Does not include any carbon costs.

9 Gas Price Changes Renewable Energy Competitiveness Footer - 9

10 Impacts of Recent Tax Changes on Renewable Busbar Cost Effects of PTC vs. ITC / Grant Solar Thermal Solar PV Green Post Stimulus Biomass Geothermal Blue Pre Stimulus Wind Landfill Gas Levelized Cost of Energy ($/MWh) Footer - 10 Source: B&V estimates for typical US projects. Includes current incentives, but does not include any carbon costs.

11 Western Transmission Initiatives RETI Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative California WREZ Western Renewable Energy Zones Western Governors Association WECC-wide Footer - 11

12 Overall Objectives Accelerate development of properly sited renewable energy and transmission Minimize impacts on wildlife and their habitats, vulnerable ecosystems and other sensitive resources Ensure most cost effective resources are accessed Do this by identifying preferred renewable energy zones Footer - 12

13 What is a Renewable Energy Zone? A group of relatively dense renewable resources that when combined have improved economics (ie, Economies-of-scale) Also - Common transmission interconnection Similar development timeframe Footer - 13

14 What is The California Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative? RETI is a statewide planning process to identify transmission projects needed to accommodate California s renewable energy goals. California law requires 20% of retail energy sales to come from renewable sources by The state has also adopted the goal of 33% by Development of renewable generation has slowed in CA. Transmission is a limiting factor. RETI will facilitate planning and permitting for competitive renewable energy zones (CREZs) Footer - 14

15 Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative Early 2008: California Interconnection Queue - Solar 26,000 MW - Wind 19,000 MW Footer - 15

16 Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative Footer - 16

17 Project and CREZ Identification Footer - 17

18 WREZ Study Area BC WA OR NV CA AZ BC - n Footer - 18

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22 Expectations in Near to Mid-Term 2009 likely to be an off-year, while in 2010 installation of all renewable resources likely to recover to historic levels Financial crisis has broad impacts, most severe in highly leveraged companies and venture capital first Expect trend of utility ownership of renewables to expand significantly, especially solar Transmission lines for renewables will be focus, but development challenging Solar PV costs could be a game-changer New paradigm for utility planning Footer - 22

23 Thank You! Discussion - Questions? Ryan Pletka pletkarj@bv.com