WHERE ARE WE GOING NOW?

Transcription

1 WHERE ARE WE GOING NOW? GfK. Growth from Knowledge 1

2 Agenda Global economy development EU trends Regional FMCG trends Shopper Wheel 2

3 Statistics says population is decreasing and ageing Population: 7.3 mln Households: 3 mln HH size: 2.4 persons One-person households: 31% (2011) Head of HH aged 60+: 40% (2011) Source: NSI 3

4 Demographic Overview Balkans Bulgaria Romania Serbia Croatia Population in mln Number of HHs in mln Average size of households Population under 16 y.o in % Population over 60 y.o in % Life expectancy male Life expectancy female Sources: Local statistical yearbook or statistical office; latest available figures 4

5 Demographic Overview Central Europe Austria Czech Republic Hungary Poland Population in mln Number of HHs in mln Average size of households Population under 16 y.o in % Population over 60 y.o in % Life expectancy male Life expectancy female Sources: Local statistical yearbook or statistical office; latest available figures 5

6 Some macro key indicators CPI, GDP, Unemployment CPI % change (Basis: corresponding month y/y-1) 5,2 5,6 4,5 4,6 4,8 4,8 4,4 4,1 3,3 3,5 3,1 2,8 4,9 4,4 4,2 4,4 3,9 3,9 3,6 3,1 2,7 2,6 2,3 2,0 2,0 2,0 1,7 1,7 1,7 1, ,5-0, ,6-1,4-1,5-1, ,1 0,5 0,9 0,4-0,6-0,4-0,2 0,0 0,1-1,0-0,8-0,6-0,5-0,6-0,4-0,4-0,9-1,0-1,6-2,2-2,0-1,9-2,3-2,6 I'11 II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I'12 II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I'13 II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I'14 II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII I'15 II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII GDP % change Unemployment % - 15 or more years old 4,5 2,6 2,6 2,9 3,0 12,2 11,2 11,4 10,2 12,9 12,3 11,5 12,4 13,8 12,9 12,0 13,0 13,0 11,4 10,8 10,6 10,6 9,9 8,3 7,9 1,4 1,1 0,8 0,9 1,3 1,8 1,9 1,8 1,4 1,6 0,3 0,0-0,1 0,3 0,4 Q1'11 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'13 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'14 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'15 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'11 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'12 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'13 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'14 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1'15 Q2 Q3 Q4 Source: National Statistical Institute 6

7 Positive trend in 2015 EU purchasing power. Significant difference between courtiers and regions. 7

8 Big share of HHs retail spending in BG, RU, HR, HU, UA. Significant difference between courtiers and regions. 8

9 Positive forecast for 2016 retail turnover in most of EU countries 9

10 Significant difference between courtiers and regions in sales area per capita 10

11 Difference in productivity per sqw.m in courtiers and regions 11

12 Value Shares of Top 3 Retail Groups 2015 Austria Czech Republic Hungary Croatia Poland 51 Romania 46 Bulgaria 33 Serbia 29 Sources: Consumer Panels 12

13 Grocery Trade Value shares of store formats 2015 (%) Hypermarket Supermarket Discount Cash & Carry Minimarket Small Grocery Shops Others Bulgaria Romania Serbia Croatia Austria Czech Republic Hungary Poland Sources: Consumer Panels 13

14 Outlet Types Value Share in Bulgaria 12% 13% 14% 14% 16% 18% 16% 15% 15% 16% 6% 7% 8% 8% 8% 15% 17% 18% 19% 19% 32% 29% 29% 27% 26% Hypermarkets Supermarkets Discounters Cash and Carry Minimarkets Small Grocery Others 15% 16% 15% 15% 15% Sources: GfK Consumer Panel Services Value shares of the main retail channels 14

15 Penetration % Main Retailers development in 2015 Spend per Buyer 15

16 Summary Populations is reducing while average age is increasing Bulgarian economy is stabilizing but structure of spending hasn t changed significantly. Big differences in purchasing power with other EU countries still exist. Forecast for positive development in most of the countries in EU for EU retail is more consolidated while local is still fragmented. Big Share of traditional trade still visible in the region. Changes in local retail market in Discounter left, 2 big players are loosing position and closing stores. Still Hypermarkets and Supermarkets are growing. Just low price is not enough. Shoppers are looking for good combination between price and quality. Up trading tendency continues. 16

17 What we can expect We can t expect big growth in the market. Possible increase can be registered mainly in Value. Bulgarian market is entering in stage of saturation. Where growth can come only with innovations or stealing from competitors. Modern trade is slowing down its temp of increase. Private labels are reducing their market share. We have to know what are the reasons behind the change. Detailed information for Shoppers is very important. 17

18 Assessment the old way Market Shares Market shares comparison 2,3% 1,8% BUT: But what is driving this change? Why we are loosing share? What is the shopper behavior is not considered! 18

19 GfK Shows the full picture Market share only shows the tip of the iceberg you will miss out the full picture Shopper behaviour shows the reason why s for market changes Knowing real reasons we can make winning strategy for exploitation of market potential 19

20 Shopper is the KING Knowing in depth the SHOPPER is crucial for our success. 20

21 Knowing your Shoppers Who are my target Shoppers? Who are the heavy users? How do they behave? What are the drivers of their behavior? What, where and when are they shopping? What need? How does the consumer structure changes over time? 21

22 Understand the Shopper wheel Activate the insight How do I translate the insight into retail actions? How do I measure compliance? 4 1 Know your shopper What does the shopper want, need and expect? What does the data say? Manage the category What do I need to do to manage the retail experience? What does the store and the category need to do? 3 2 Understand the journey How does the Shopper plan, make choices between channels, navigate the store and buy? GfK June 2, 2016 GfK Shopper Missions 22

23 Growing need to understand your performance among shoppers on particular shopping missions in specific channels Shopper missions essential for understanding in-store behavior quantify the importance & weight of missions optimize the shopping experience maximize shopper spend in stores Optimizing assortment & in-store activities for higher sales GfK June 2, 2016 GfK Shopper Missions 23

24 Knowing their Shopping missions and Shopping trips the essential missing link to understand shoppers Focuses on the purpose of a particular shopping trip Bargain hunter Promo share >30% One need 1-2 categories Stock up 3-9 categories Large Stock up 10+ categories Shopper missions vary over time (depending on the purpose/occasion ) 24

25 Essential to know the share of shopping missions in our sales and buyers Shopping missions in FMCG Implications for One Need 1-2 categories Stock up 3-9 categories % Buyers % Sales % Buyers % Sales Retailers Essential to know the share of different shopping missions in our sales and buyers Large stock up 10+ categories Bargain Hunter Promo share >30% % Buyers % Sales % Buyers % Sales Manufacturers Important to know share of different missions in our category as well as shopping mission shares by main retailers GfK June 2, 2016 GfK Shopper Missions 25

26 Comparing performance with competitive channels and retailers can help to identify potentials for growth Hypermarkets Discounters One Need 1-2 categories % Buyers % Sales One Need 1-2 categories % Buyers % Sales Stock up 3-9 categories % Buyers % Sales Stock up 3-9 categories % Buyers % Sales Large stock up 10 + categories % Buyers % Sales Large stock up 10 + categories % Buyers % Sales 10 7 Bargain Hunter Promo share >30% % Buyers % Sales Bargain Hunter Promo share >30% % Buyers % Sales GfK June 2, 2016 GfK Shopper Missions 26

27 It s important to track the dynamic of shopping missions and adapt your strategy according to market trends Bargain Hunters % Buyers % Sales Promo share >30% Large stock up 10+ categories ,4 5,1 5,9 6,4 6,8 7,1 6, GfK June 2, 2016 GfK Shopper Missions 27

28 Build your winning strategy for growth GfK June 2, 2016 GfK Shopper Missions 28

29 Identify and Profile Consumers with Highest Potential GfK June 2, 2016 GfK Shopper Missions 29

30 Explore your market potential Identify trade channels with higher importance and potential for growth Manage the category understanding shopper journey and missions GfK June 2, 2016 GfK Shopper Missions 30

31 GfK. Growth from Knowledge Vesela Kalchishkova / Director Consumer Panel Services GfK Bulgaria 31