ABC Impacts Aviation and the Belgian Climate Policy : Analysis of Integration Options and Impacts

Transcription

1 ABC Impacts Aviation and the Belgian Climate Policy : Analysis of Integration Options and Impacts Sandrine MEYER*, Walter HECQ*, Julien MATHEYS**, Joeri VAN MIERLO**, Cathy MACHARIS***, Ben MATTHEWS**** & Jean-Pascal VAN YPERSELE**** *Univ. libre Bruxelles, CEESE, av. Jeanne 44, CP 124, 1050 Brussels, Belgium - sameyer@ulb.ac.be ** Vrije Univ. Brussel, ETEC, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium *** Vrije Univ. Brussel, MOSI, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium **** Univ. cath. Louvain, ASTR, Chemin du cyclotron 2, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium Abstract The ABC impacts project aims at providing Belgian decision-makers and stakeholders with a detailed and integrated analysis of issues related to the integration of international air and maritime transport into European and international climate policy. The analysis of the different inclusion options is of particular interest for Belgium, given the importance of these sectors in its economy and the intensity of air traffic over the country. In this context, the ABC impacts project intends to analyse these options (as well as their consequences) and to provide an in-depth study of the technical, economic and environmental characteristics of the aviation sector. The project will also draw a comparison with the international maritime transport. A synthesis report based on a multi-criteria analysis (political, technical, socio-economic and environmental viewpoints) will be delivered to compare options for integrating international air and maritime transport into climate policy. Keys-words: aviation, greenhouse gas emissions, climate policy, climate impacts, international maritime transport. Résumé Le projet ABC impacts a pour objectif de fournir aux décideurs politiques et aux acteurs belges une analyse détaillée et intégrée des enjeux de l intégration du transport international aérien et maritime dans la politique climatique européenne et internationale. L analyse des différentes options d inclusion revêt un intérêt particulier pour la Belgique étant donné l importance économique de ces secteurs et la concentration spatiale du trafic aérien au-dessus du pays. Dans ce contexte, le projet ABC impacts propose d analyser ces options (et leurs conséquences) et d étudier en profondeur les caractéristiques du secteur de l aviation sur les plans technique, économique et environnemental. Lorsque cela s avèrera pertinent, le projet effectuera un parallèle avec le transport maritime international. Une synthèse basée sur une analyse multicritères (aspects politique, technique, socio-économique et environnemental) sera fournie afin de comparer les options d intégration du transport international aérien et maritime dans la politique climatique. Mots-clefs : aviation, émissions de gaz à effet de serre, politique climatique, conséquences climatiques, transport maritime international.

2 Introduction Emissions from international air and maritime transport are currently not covered by the Kyoto Protocol commitments, nor by the EU-ETS, though they have been growing considerably for more than 10 years (e.g.: EEA, 2004). However, the inclusion of these sectors into emission reduction policies is increasingly considered, both within the European Union (the aviation sector should be included in the EU-ETS by 2013 at the latest (EU, 1999)) and in the context of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It is thus a major issue in defining post-2012 climate policy at both the European and international levels. Different options for including international air (e.g.: Wit et al., 2005) and maritime transport are thus to be considered, and their analysis is particularly relevant for Belgium given the importance of those sectors in the national economy. At the international level, several studies are currently being performed concerning the environmental, and particularly the climate-related impacts of aviation and other international transport (e.g.: TRADEOFF, QUANTIFY, etc.). At the Belgian level, current emphasis seems to be put on maritime transport (e.g.: MOPSEA and ECOSONOS projects). However, international studies (e.g.: Sausen, 2005) show, among other things, that the climate-related impacts of aviation, as compared to other international transport, are much more complex and extensive, especially if we take into account the rapid growth of this sector and the non-co 2 related climatic effects (e.g.: the effects of condensation trails, ozone impacts, etc.). Another conclusion, taken more specifically from the IPCC special report on aviation, indicates that the radiative forcing caused by condensation trails is particularly important over the Belgian territory and around (IPCC, 1999). 1 - Objectives The Aviation and the Belgian Climate Policy: Analysis of Integration Options and Impacts (ABC impacts) project is part of the "Science for sustainable development" national research programme. This research project serves two main objectives: 1- to inform political decision-makers about the environmental, political and socioeconomic implications for Belgium of integrating (or not) the international aviation and maritime transport sectors into climate policy; 2- to provide a tool for the preparation and assessment of Belgian climate policy, on the eve of the negotiations concerning the expansion of the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) and the post-2012 phase of the Kyoto Protocol. A multi-criteria analysis will allow our findings on aviation and Belgian climate policy to integrate other issues of concern such as the other environmental impacts related to air and maritime transport (cf. NO x, SO x and PM emissions, etc.), the socio-economic impact of different policies (climate-related or not) on the given sector, etc. It will also allow us to consider the viewpoint of different groups of stakeholders (political agents, airlines, transportation users, etc.). 2 - Description of the project The two successive phases of the ABC impacts project will result in a new, in-depth analysis of the aviation sector and climate policy options from a technical, environmental and an economic viewpoint, compared to other international transport modes (see Fig. 1). More specifically, the project s first phase ( ) will include the following work packages: - A state-of-the-art that will summarise available data and knowledge concerning maritime (a.o. the Belgian ECOSONOS and MOPSEA projects) and other transport mode sectors, climate policies (e.g.: GHGs covered, allocation methodologies, etc.) and emission inventory methodologies ; - The design of scenarios describing the probable evolution of the aviation sector by means of a market analysis and traffic projections ;

3 - The identification and assessment of available technologies (current and future) for aircraft propulsion as well as different air routes and possible flight options ; - An evaluation of the emissions from international air transport transiting through Belgium (and the European Union) as well as a comparison with the emissions from other modes of transportation ; - A comparison of the climate-related impacts of emissions from the aviation sector and the impacts of the greenhouse gases concerned by the Kyoto Protocol as well as an assessment of various methods for the spatial and temporal aggregation of climate-related impacts using existing climate models like JCM 1 ; - An identification and assessment of the options for integrating the aviation and maritime sectors into international climate policy, including environmental and efficiency aspects, the additional charge for Belgium and the effort required from the aviation and maritime sectors as compared to other sectors ; - A multi-criteria analysis aimed at comparing various political options with respect to the priorities of civil society (e.g.: Macharis, 2003). In the second phase of the project (after 2007), the process will be reiterated on the basis of new scenarios that will integrate: - A model of regional climate impacts, in the aim of analysing mainly the effects of cirrus cloud formation over Belgian territory: after an exploration of new methodologies and datasets and likely sensitivity to different forcings, the ASTR-UCL Regional Climate Model (RCM) MAR 2 (e.g.: Fettweis et al. 2005) will be adapted and validated for North-West European region. Then, physics of RCM will be extended for additional cirrus and ozone forcing in upper troposphere and geographical patterns of such forcing using datasets from other European projects, as well as from WP4, will be derived. After running several scenarios with differing aviation forcing and/or nested in different Global Climate Model (GCM) datasets, results will be analysed in terms of regional temperature, precipitation, sunlight and will be considered in terms of regional impacts (with input from other project partners as well as from literature). - The analysis of other potential political measures aimed at reducing environmental damage (including non-climate related ones) of air and maritime transport ; - The updating of major parameters (for instance : fuel prices and the demand for international transport), the development of potential evolution scenarios for aviation and maritime transport and an assessment of major implications for Belgium, the aviation and maritime transport sectors based on the policy options and scenario chosen. Towards the end of its second phase, the project will deliver a synthesis report that will compare, from a political, technical, socio-economic and environmental viewpoint, the options for integrating air and maritime transport into climate policy. Finally, it will provide a series of recommendations for Belgian decision-makers, based on the multi-criteria analysis. 1 Initial exploration of the relative impacts of aviation emissions will be made by extending the Java Climate Model (JCM), developed by Dr Ben Matthews in UCL ASTR since 2002 (and previously in KUP Bern, UNEP-GRID Arendal and DEA-CCAT Copenhagen). The climate component of JCM is currently based on the Wigley-Raper upwelling-diffusion energy balance model, using the same parameterisation to fit GCM results as in IPCC TAR. JCM also incorporates the Bern carbon cycle, and atmospheric chemistry and forcing for over 30 well-mixed gases. These core modules of JCM will be updated as the science evolves towards IPCC-AR4. The interactive interface of JCM will also be extended to enable stakeholders to explore the sensitivity of the global climate to different aviation policy options, and also the sensitivity of a relative "GWP" for aviation emissions to different methods of spatial/temporal aggregation and scientific uncertainties. Another interactive module will be added to compare the climate effects from different forms of transport for individual journeys, based on the results from WPs 4 and 5. 2 Modèle Atmosphérique Régional Regional Atmospheric Model

4 3 Expected results of the first phase ( ) - A first aviation emission inventory (data base) adapted to the Belgian situation (cf. market analysis), compared to other transport emission inventories will be available at the end of the first phase of the project. - A first comparison of the different emission inventory methodologies and allocation rules of climate policies or climate policy negotiations as far as transport is concerned will be available at the end of the first year of the project. - A synthesis of available methodologies and data for modelling climate impacts of aviation will be carried out for the end of the first year of the project. A simple model of impacts of aviation on global climate, and a more complex model of its impacts on regional climate will be developed respectively at the end of the second and the fourth years, respectively. - A comparison of policy options (climate policies and other types of policy measures) based on a multi-criteria analysis including environmental, political, technical and socio-economic aspects and identification of their implications for Belgium (political decision support) will be carried out at the end of the first phase of the project. At the end of the second phase, the multi-criteria analysis will be updated and extended to new scenarios and new policy options, and feed-back loops will be analysed to assess socio-economic and environmental impacts of the scenarios studied in Belgium (e.g. impacts on aviation and maritime sectors, impacts on sectors related to international transport, etc.) - Several scenarios concerning the evolution of aviation and maritime transport sectors in function of different parameters (policy option, growth, technological improvement, time horizon, fuel price, etc.) will be developed to assess the sector-based implications of the adoption of identified policy options (political decision support) during the second year of the project. During the third year, previous scenarios will be updated and additional scenarios taking into account i.e. policy measures other than climate related ones will be worked out. - A clear synthesis of the main stakes for Belgium regarding the different integration options of aviation and maritime transport in the international, European and/or Belgian climate policy (political decision support) will be available by the end of the first and second phases of the project. Acknowledgment The authors would like to thank the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office (formerly: Federal Office for Scientific, Technical and Cultural Affairs - OSTC) for its financial support to the ABC Impacts project. References EEA, 2004, Ten key transport and environment issues for policy-makers - TERM 2004: Indicators tracking transport and environment integration in the European Union, EEA Report n 3/2004. European Commision, 1999, Communication Air Transport & the Environment, 1 December 1999 COM (1999) 640. Fettweis X., Gallée H., Lefebre L., van Ypersele J.-P., 2005, Greenland surface mass balance simulated by a regional climate model and comparison with satellite derived data in Climate Dynamics, N 24, , DOI: /s y. Fuglestvedt J.S., Berntsen T.K., Godal O., Sausen R., Shine K.P. and Skodvin T., 2003, Metrics of climate change: assessing radiative forcing and emission indices. Climatic Change 58, IPCC, 1999, Aviation and the Global Atmosphere. A Special Report of IPCC Working Groups I and III in collaboration with the Scientific Assessment panel to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, J.E. Penner, D.H. Lister, D.J. Griggs, D.J. Dokken and M. McFarland (eds). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, UK.

5 IPCC, 2000, Emission Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, UK. Macharis C., Springael J., De Brucker, K. and A. Verbeke, 2003, PROMETHEE and AHP: the design of operational synergies in multicriteria-analysis: Strengthening PROMETHEE with ideas of AHP, European Journal of Operational Research, Volume 153, Issue 2, 1 March 2003, Pages Sausen R., 2005, Global Atmospheric Effects of Aviation and Surface Transport (TRADEOFF, METRIC, QUANTIFY). Third Japan-EU Workshop on Climate Change Research January TRADEOFF Aircraft emissions: Contributions of various climate compounds to changes in composition and radiative forcing tradeoffs to reduce atmospheric impact, Environment & Sustainable Development Programme EC, Research DG, Contract no. EVK2-CT Wit R.C.N. (Ron), B.H. (Bart) Boon and A. (André) van Velzen (CE Delft), M. (Martin) Cames and O. (Odette) Deuber (Oeko-Institut, Berlin), D.S. (David) Lee (Manchester Metropolitan University), 2005, Giving wings to emission trading Inclusion of aviation under the European emission trading system (ETS): design and impacts, Report for the European Commission, DG Environment No. ENV.C.2/ETU/2004/0074r, Delft, July 2005.

6 Figure 1: Figure 1 : Tasks scheme of the ABC Impacts project. Schéma des tâches du projet ABC Impacts.