National Drought Management Authority KILIFI COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR DECEMBER A Vision 2030 Flagship Project

Transcription

1 National Drought Management Authority KILIFI COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR DECEMBER 2018 A Vision 2030 Flagship Project DECEMBER EW PHASE Livelihood Zone Stage Trend Marginal Mixed farming Normal Worsening Livestock/Ranching Normal Worsening Drought situation and phase classification Biophysical Indicators (Environmental indicators) Below normal rains were recorded during the month under review. The state of water sources not normal at this time of the year average distance remained above long term mean. The 3-month Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) indicated vegetation greenness above normal though some areas recorded poor condition. Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators Livestock body condition remained good for all livestock species across the all livelihood zones during the month. Milk production at household levels recorded a decrease when compared to the previous month. No main crop harvest was recorded during the month under review. Access indicators Milk consumption was stable during the month under review when compared to the previous month. The average household distances one way to the water sources recorded an increase during the month under review. The average distance to water sources for livestock increased during the month when compared to the previous month of November. The average food price was stable during the month under review. The Terms of Trade were above long term mean during the month of under review. Utilization indicators Significant number of sampled households recorded acceptable food consumption during the month. The percentage of children under five years at risk of malnutrition from the sampled households reduced during the month under review when compared to previous month. Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation Long rains Planting/Weeding High calving Rate Milk yields Increase Cash Cropping/Dairy Normal Stable Food Cropping Normal Stable COUNTY Normal Worsening Biophysical Indicators Value Normal Average Rainfall (mm) VCI-3month Production indicators Value Normal Livestock Migration No- No intramigration Pattern migration Livestock Body Conditions Milk Production ltr/hh/day Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Crop condition Fair Good Access Indicators Value Normal Terms of Trade (ToT) Milk Consumption (% range) Average Water Distance for Households (Km) Average Grazing- Water point Distance (Km) Utilization indicators Value Normal Nutrition Status, MUAC (% at risk of malnutrition) Short rains Planting/weeding Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 1 P a g e

2 1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall performance The onset of OND rainfall was late with poor temporal and uneven spatial distribution. Figure a: Average Rainfall The month under review recorded decrease in average amount of rainfall compared to previous month. During the month under review, OND rains ceased as most areas remained dry during the month of December. Kakuyuni sample site in the Mixed farming zone in Malindi Sub County recorded lowest rainfall amount, 7.5mm during the month as compared to other sentinel site stations while Bamba sentinel site station recorded highest rainfall amount of 85mm. The month remained generally dry, humid with high temperatures across the livelihood zones at during day and night.

3 2.0 IMPACT ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation Condition Vegetation Condition Index [VCI] Figure: 2a Time series vegetation condition analysis [Source: Boku University -Austria Figure 2a shows the analysis of vegetation condition compared to the previous year, long term mean, maximum and minimum ever recorded over the same period. The year 2018 since April recorded above long term mean vegetation condition with significant decrease in September Pasture Figure 2b: December analysis of pasture condition The pasture condition across all the livelihood zones during the month under review ranged between good and poor with 66.7 percent of households recording good condition while 4.8 percent recording poor. Mixed and marginal farming zones, ranching zones and part of food cropping zones recorded fair to poor pasture condition.

4 The available pasture condition expected to reduce in quality and quantity across the livelihood zones in subsequent months following poor short rains performance recorded. On average the available pasture can last for next 2-3 months, with some areas in the marginal, mixed and ranching zone lasting at an average of one month. Pasture condition in some areas was below normal at this time of the year Browse Figure 2c: December analysis of browse condition The browse condition was generally good both in quality and quantity across all the livelihood zones. On average significant percentage of 71.4% of sampled households recorded good condition, 23.8 percent recording fair with only 4.8 percent recording poor. 2.2 Water Resources Sources The main water sources for domestic and livestock use for the month under review were pans/dams 30%, rivers 30%, traditional river wells 20%, boreholes 6.7% and shallow wells across all livelihood zones.

5 2.2.2 Household water access and utilization Figure 2d: Households average distance to water points. The average distance to water sources for the households increased by 8.8 percent compared to the previous month. The increase can be attributed to poor recharge of the pans and dams following uneven spatial distribution of 2018 short rains. The current average distance was 161 percent higher than the long term mean at this time of the year Livestock access to water Figure 2e: Average livestock return distance to water point from grazing area. The average return trekking distance to the water sources by livestock during the month recorded an increase of 32.5 percent compared to the previous month.

6 The ranching zone recorded the highest average distance of 5.7km. The current average distance was 120 percent higher compared to the long term mean at this time of the year.

7 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.0 Livestock Production Livestock body condition The Livestock body condition across all livelihood zones was good for all species during the month under review Livestock disease No major livestock diseases was reported during the month Livestock Migration. No major livestock migration observed during the month under review Milk production Figure 3: Average Milk Production Cows were major producers of milk in the County. The month of December recorded a decrease of 7 percent in production in litres per household per day compared to the previous month. The decrease can be attributed to increased distance to water points from grazing areas. The average milk production during the month was 29.3 percent higher than the long term mean at this time of the year.

8 3.2 RAIN FED CROP PRODUCTION Stage and condition of food crops The crops grown by the farmers in the county were mainly Maize, cowpeas, green grams and Cassava. Many of crops grown are at different stages of stage of development, ready green maize, grain filling knee high. Maize crop condition in Kaloleni and some parts of Ganze sub counties was in good condition with Magarini, Malindi and parts of Ganze sub counties recording very poor condition due to low rains recorded in these areas Crop Harvest No major crop harvest was recorded during the month, pineapple harvesting was recorded from the marginal mixed farming zone of Magarini sub county. 4.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1. LIVESTOCK MARKET Cattle prices Figure 4a: Average cattle price (4 year bull/steer) in major livestock markets in Kilifi County. The average cattle price during the month recorded an increase of 24.7 percent compared to the previous month. The increase can be attributed to high demand for meat as festive season kicked. The highest average market price was recorded in Rabai Sub County at Kshs 40,000 and lowest recorded in ranching zone of Ganze and Magarini Sub County at Kshs 21,000.

9 Average price expected to decrease in January due to increased supply as schools opened and parents searched for fees. The average price during the month was significantly higher compared to the long term mean at this time of the year Goat prices. Figure 4b: Average goat price (3 year old) at market level in Kilifi County. The average price of a 3 year old, medium size goat recorded a 6.8 percent increase during the month under review compared to the previous month. The increase can be attributed to the month s festivities thus high demand for goat meat. The increase in average price was 6 percent when compared to the previous month of November and attributed to demands for goat species due to festive season. The highest average price was recorded in cash cropping/dairy zone of Rabai Sub County at Ksh 6,000 and lowest average price recorded in the ranching zone of Bamba, Ganze Sub County at Kshs 3,333. The average price recorded during the month was 28 percent higher than the long term mean at this time of the year.

10 4.2 Crop prices Maize Figure 4c: Average maize price in Kilifi County. The average maize price per kilogram during the month remained stable compared to the previous month. The stability can be attributed to high demand for sifted maize meal compared to the maize. The average maize price during the month under review was almost the same as long term mean at this time of the year Beans Figure 4d: Average beans price in Kilifi County.

11 The average price per kilogram of beans during the month under review was recorded at Ksh 75.2, a slight decrease from Ksh 81 recorded in month of November. The decrease in average price can be attributed to increased supply of beans in the market. On average the lowest beans price was recorded in the mixed farming zone of Kakuyuni at Ksh 50 and highest in the marginal mixed farming zone of Kaloleni Sub County at Ksh 93. The current average price was 13.3 percent lower than the long term mean at this time of the year. 4.3 TERMS OF TRADE Figure 4e: Terms of Trade for Kilifi County. The Terms of Trade (ToT) during the month of December recorded an increase of 5 percent compared to the previous month. During the month under review households were able to purchase 109.1Kgs of maize with a sale of one goat which was an increase when compared to the previous month. The Increase in ToT can be attributed to increase in average goat price during the month under review. The Terms of Trade during the month of December were 37 percent above the long term mean at this time of the year.

12 5.0 NUTRITION STATUS 5.1 MILK CONSUMPTION Figure 5a: Milk consumption chart The average milk consumption per household per day during the month under review remained stable when compared to the previous month. The current average milk consumption per household per day was 28.6 percent above the long term mean at this time of the year.

13 5.2 Health and Nutrition Status Mid Upper Arm Circumstance (MUAC) Figure 5b: Proportion of children under five years at risk of malnutrition. The percentage of children under five years at risk of malnutrition from the sampled households dropped significantly as households food security improved during the month. The percentage of children under five at risk of malnutrition scored 3.4 during the month under review a decrease of 21 percent compared to the previous month. The percentage of children under five years at risk of malnutrition in month of November was stable when compared to the long term mean at this time of the year

14 5.2.2 Food Consumption Score. Figure 5c: Food Consumption Score. Significant percent od sampled households in the County during the month under review recorded acceptable food consumption across all the livelihood zones. No households was recorded under poor food consumption during the month of December. On average from sampled households, 9 percent recorded borderline food consumption and 91 percent of households recorded acceptable food consumption.

15 5.3 COPING STARTEGIES Coping Strategy Index Figure 5d: Coping Strategy Index for Kilifi County The mean Coping Strategy Index (CSI) for the month of December was 2.9 a decrease from 3.29 in month of November The ranching zone recorded the highest CSI of 5.1 score while mixed farming zone recorded the lowest CSI of 0.5 score, an indication that food shortage in the ranching zone was high compared to other livelihood zones.

16 6.0 CURRENT ONGOING INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 Food- aid None 6.2 Non-food aid Health Sector Capacity building of county health team on nutrition coordination for maximum results Capacity building of county health team on micro-nutrient powder with support from UNICEF Supplementary Feeding Programme (SFP), Outpatient therapeutic Feeding Programme (OTP) at the health facilities across the county Vitamin A supplementation of children less than five years old Iron Folate Supplementation among Pregnant Women, IYCN Interventions, Zinc and Vitamin A Supplementation, IMAM, Integrated Outreaches and mass screening Water sector Construction of bulk water main pipelines Malindi-Kilifi and Langobaya- Marereni CGK, World Bank Social- Protection Resettlement of households affected by floods in Malindi and Magarini sub counties by KRCS-Construction of houses continued. 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES Performance of 2018 short expected to be significantly below the long term mean 7.1 FOOD SECURITY PROGNOSIS Livestock body condition for all species expected to remain good following availability of pasture and browse where pasture and browse already is poor their body condition expected to decrease. Average food prices expected to increase following poor performance of the short rains harvest. Following forecasted poor short rains crop performance, significant number of household expected to record food shortage in the coming months. Following poor recharge from the short rains, average distance to water sources expected to record an increasing trend.

17 8. RECOMMENDATIONS Water Sector Repair of Baricho boreholes to ensure supply of water to communities in Magarini sub county. Excavation of dams (Bamba, Mwanamwinga, Kayafungo and Adu wards) for water harvesting for both households, livestock and micro irrigation Detailed study on river Sabaki as flooding hindered Ending Drought Emergencies efforts due frequent change of course with significant damage to farms in April Livestock Sector Sensitization and support on fodder and pasture production and conservation in both the ranching and marginal mixed farming zones following availability of plenty of standing hay. Community sensitization on drought early warning to initiate commercial destocking. Heath Sector Scale up formation of mother to mother support groups to enhance appropriate complimentary feeding Continue with medical outreaches and malnutrition screening and treatment across the county Intensified Community sensitization on proper nutrition for vulnerable population including children under-five years. Agriculture Sector Farmers sensitization on climate change and climate smart agriculture as dependency on rain-fed agriculture recorded poor performance. Education Sector More interventions in the education sector as investment in human capital will boost Ending Drought Emergencies significantly.