Future Earth と WCRP との連携 (II) SIMSEA (Sustainability Initiative in the Marginal Seas of South and East Asia) アジア太平洋地域における人間安全保障への貢献

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1 日本学術会議公開シンポジウム Future Earth 時代の WCRP 2017 年 7 月 28 日 13:00-18:00 東京大学生産技術研究所 S 棟講堂 Future Earth と WCRP との連携 (II) SIMSEA (Sustainability Initiative in the Marginal Seas of South and East Asia) アジア太平洋地域における人間安全保障への貢献 山形俊男 ( 東京大学名誉教授 ) 海洋研究開発機構アプリケーションラボ特任上席研究員 笹川平和財団海洋政策研究所特別研究員

2 人類生存に不可欠な要素 Necessary elements for human habitability In 2013, NASA's Cassini spacecraft captured this image of Earth from Saturn. Seen here, our planet is 898 million miles away (1.44 billion kilometers) and appears as a blue dot at center right. 水と生息可能な陸域 大気 海洋環境 (water and habitable environment) 衣食住 (food, clothing and shelter) 健康 (health) 資源 エネルギー (resources, energy) これらを不安定化する水惑星における変化 ( 人類起源も含む ) と変動 Habitability and sustainability are threatened by changes (including anthropogenic ones) and variations occurring in the aqua-planet Earth. Another Sword of Damocles!!

3 Sustainable Development Goals ( 持続可能な開発目標 ) adopted by the UN sustainable development summit as the post 2015 development agenda Food Health Capacity Building Water Energy Economy Industry Disaster Prevention Recycling, Pollution Life on land Climate Marine life UNCLOS IPBES, IPCC Partnership

4 Future Earth Program led by ICSU and ISSC in response to Rio+20 国際科学会議と国際社会科学協議会が主導する 未来の地球 計画のコンセプトを単純化すれば 1) to develop the knowledge for responding effectively to the risks and opportunities of global environmental change. 地球環境変化のリスクと好機に効果的に対応する知の強化 2) to support societal transformation towards global sustainability in the coming decades for wellness and well-being of all living creatures. 持続可能な社会への変革を支援 Future Earth ( 未来の地球 ): a 10-year international research program launched in June 2012, at the UN Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20) that will provide critical knowledge required for societies to face the challenges posed by global environmental change and to identify opportunities for a transition to global sustainability. It is led by ICSU ( 国際科学会議 )and ISSC ( 国際社会科学協議会 )with UN organizations (UNEP, UNU, UNESCO, WMO) and Belmont Forum.

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6 Key sustainability challenges in Asia アジアにおける持続可能性の課題 Climate variability and extremes, and related hazards and disasters from typhoons, floods and landslides etc. Pressures of urbanization megacities, health, pollution Values and lifestyles - social pressures, rapid growth in economics, population, production, consumption, and global connectivity Biodiversity loss in hot spots and unvalued/undervalued ecosystem services Food, water, energy, land security nexus Resilience, vulnerability, productivity of coastal, marine and terrestrial biomes

7 エルニーニョ現象の模式図 Schematic picture of El Niño ラニーニャ La Niña エルニーニョ El Niño

8 エルニーニョ現象の世界各地への影響 ( 夏 ) Global impact of El Niño (Blue:cold area;orange:warm area) (Shaded:dry area;cloud:wet area)

9 ダイポールモード現象の模式図 Schematic picture of Indian Ocean Dipole discovered and coined by Saji et al. 1999, Nature 負のダイポールモード Negative IOD 正のダイポールモード Positive IOD

10 ダイポールモード現象の世界各地への影響 ( 夏 ) Global impact of Indian Ocean Dipole (boreal summer) (Blue:cold area;orange:warm area) (Shaded:dry area;cloud:wet area) Based on Saji and Yamagata, 2003, Climate Res.

11 2011 Flood Inundation in Thailand Influences of La Niña and IPO 世界のサプライチェーンの寸断 Based on Report by AON Benfield

12 Interdecadal Event, Billion Dollar Weather/Climate Disaster

13 Super typhoon No. 30 (Haiyan) hit the Philippines 台風ハイエン ( ヨランダ ) 2013 年 11 月死者 行方不明者約 8000 名 Record-breaking disaster due to strong winds and storm surge 強風と高潮による災害 Influences of La Niña and positive IPO ラニーニャと太平洋振動

14 Droughts and Bushfires due to IOD event in 2006 Drought in Australia due to 2006 IOD Water and Agricultural problems 干ばつと叢林火災 Bush Fire in southeast Asia in 2006 Health and Transportation problems Black Saturday Bushfires in Victoria, Australia ion Feb. 7, 2009 after 3 consecutive IODs in 2006,7, and 8 Burned down area: 4500Km 2 ; Death toll: 173 Immediate human security problem More frequent IOD events expected in warmer climate Nature Geoscience Cai et al. (2013)

15 Australia Wheat Production オーストラリアの小麦収量 (based on ABS and US Dept. of Agriculture) All major drops are related to Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño events

16 Wheat yield anomaly at different phases of IOD and ENSO オーストラリアの小麦収量変動と気候変動現象の関係 (Yuan and Yamagata 2015, Scientific Reports)

17 IOD is much more important than ENSO in wheat yield in Australia (C. Yuan and T. Yamagata, 2015 Scientific Reports)

18 農作物被害 Agricultural loss(1971~2004) Almost no harvest of rice in 1993 in Tohoku of Japan ( 気象庁資料による ) Unit: almost equivalent to US million dollars 不稔籾 Sterile rice Almost no summer in 1993 El ( Niño and negative IOD エルニーニョ現象と負のダイポールモード現象

19 Number of patients of hyperthermia (heatstroke) 熱中症患者数 (mostly from NIES report) Total Number of Deaths from 1968 to 2007: : 26 El Niño, 1994: 589 IOD, 2004: 449 El Niño Modoki, 2007: 904 La Niña+IOD 2010: Number of serious patients 56184, Deaths 496 (1745 revised) La Niña+IO capacitor effect Number of Deaths ( 死者数 ) 2007 La Niña 2004 El Niño Modoki Temp. & Age Dependence ( Data from Tokyo) 1994 piod Critical age of 65 Max Temp.

20 Reviving interdecadal global warming? 地球温暖化の加速時期に再び入った? Interdercadal Pacific Oscillation vs. Global warming More extreme events expected by acceleration of Global Warming (Kosaka and Xie, Nature 2013) Black:Observed global temperature Purple:Only increasing greenhouse gases considered Red:Observed tropical Pacific SST inserted?

21 Early warning of abnormal seasons is now available experimentally! 気候変動要素 ( 気温 水温 降雨 ) とその影響の早期予測が実験的に可能に Surface temp., SST anomalies Precipitation anomalies 3 month later 6 months later 9 months later

22 Rich Application of Seasonal Climate Prediction to Society 季節変動予測システムの豊かな可能性 Our societal, economic and industrial activities are highly vulnerable to abnormal seasons and extreme events induced by climate variations rooted in the oceans under the changing climate. 気候変化の下で進化を始めた海洋起源の気候変動現象 その結果として起きる季節の異常と極端現象が社会 経済 産業活動に大きな影響を与え始めた To mitigate impacts from such extreme events and to achieve sustainable wellness and well-being, to accelerate building an innovative seasonal climate prediction system by use of state-of-the art ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation models harnessing the real-time satellite and in situ global observations and the simulation technology is urgent. その影響を緩和し持続可能な良き生を達成するにはリアルタイム地球観測とシミュレーション技術を統合する大気海洋結合大循環モデルを用いた革新的な季節予測システムの構築を急ぐ必要がある This will lead to a good practice in demonstrating an active link between the provision of services and the collection and processing of data, thus contributing to decision-making. このシステムはサービスとデータ収集 処理の間の活発な交流の良き例を与え 政策決定に貢献するであろう

23 ICSU RCAP s Contribution to Future Earth: 国際科学会議アジア太平洋地域委員会の 未来の地球 計画への貢献 SIMSEA Sustainability Initiative in the Marginal Seas of South and East Asia ( 南 東アジアの縁辺海における持続可能性イニシアチブ ) ( The idea was born at the 16 th Meeting of ICSU RCAP (Regional Committee for Asia and the Pacific), Nov , Hotel President, Seoul, Korea Pre-scoping workshop was held at Application Lab, JAMSTEC, Feb , 2014, Yokohama, Japan 1 st SIMSEA SC at the University of the Philippines, June 30-July 1, 2014 Scoping workshop for prioritization at University of the Philippines, and 2 nd SIMSEA SC Nov , rd SIMSEA SC at the University of the Philippines, Oct. 6-7, th SIMSEA SC at the University of the Philippines, Mar , th SIMSEA SC at Microtel by Wyndham, Sept. 25, th SIMSEA SC at Penang, Malaysia, Dec (in preparation)

24 The Data Revolution for Sustainable Development Jeffrey Sachs, Project Syndicate Sept. 18, 2015 There is growing recognition that the success of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will depend on the ability of governments, businesses, and civil society to harness data for decision-making. The key is to invest in building innovative data systems that draw on new sources of real-time data for sustainable development. One way to improve data collection and use for sustainable development is to create an active link between the provision of services and the collection and processing of data for decision-making.

25 Development of Communication Tools OPRI-SPF has launched a 5-year program of research to observe and analyze the changing situation. Through this program, we aim to raise awareness regarding ocean risks and develop policy recommendations in order to fill the perception gaps between the serious situation and current levels of understanding. MARINE Crisis Watch 海洋危機ウォッチ Tackling Issues of Ocean Warming and Acidification Public Awareness Data Base Knowledge Base Scientific Prediction Communication Platform Strengthening network, hosting workshops Targeting: Platform for Integration of Scientific Knowledge / Prediction with Data Management Systems Public awareness/capacity Building Ocean Policy Making on Global Scale