The 21st Century Challenge: Water Policy in the Context of Climate Change

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1 The 21st Century Challenge: Policy in the Context of Climate Change Arnold Vedlitz, Ph.D. Bob Bullock Chair in Government and Public Policy Director Institute for Science, Technology and Public Policy A&M University

2 The 21st Century Challenge: Policy in the Context of Climate Change NOAA National Weather Service Project Public Survey Climate Change, Drought and Policymaking in the U.S. Southern Region Conducted January 17-March 12, 2008 Sample 600 randomly selected citizens, over age questions took about 25 minutes to complete Completion rate %

3 Demographics of Public Survey Gender Age Race Ethnicity Education Survey Census Frequency Percent Population Male % 50% Female % 50% % 14% % 20% % 20% % 31% 65 and over % 14% White % 70% Black or African American 31 5% 12% American Indian and Alaskan Native 12 2% 1% Asian 6 1% 3% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0 0% 0% Some other race 39 7% 13% Two or more races 16 3% 2% Hispanic or Latino 90 15% 36% Not Hispanic or Latino % 64% High School Graduate or Less % 49% Some college, no degree % 20% Associate's degree 46 8% 6% Bachelor's degree % 17% Graduate or Professional Degree % 8%

4 Survey Question Drought Frequency How often do you experience drought? Frequency Percent Cumulative Rarely Some of the time Often Always Total

5 Drought as an Environmental Issue Pollution Overuse of Natural Resources Loss of Plant & Animal Species Drought Ozone Depletion Global Warming & Climate Change Genetically Modified Foods Nuclear Energy Environmental Issues Level of Concern Among environmental issues of concern to Texans, drought is ranked 4th On a scale from 0 to 10, the average Texan gives drought a concern level of 6.6

6 Drought Hazards Increased Costs Damage to Animal and Plant Species Increased Fires Increased User Conflicts Increases in Food Prices Loss of Recreational Activities Reduced Supply Reduced Quality of Life Economic Losses Reduced Quality Increased Unemployment Likely Regional Impacts of Drought 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 93.2% of Texans believe it is at least somewhat likely that a drought would negatively impact their region. The sector believed most affected by drought is agriculture (67.4%).

7 Where do Texans get their information about drought? Source of Information Frequency Percent newspapers television news the internet 35 6 national weather service 15 3 personal experience and observation 9 2 government agencies 7 1 magazines/journals 6 1 radio 4 1 scientific research reports 4 1 personal scientific research 4 1 work/place of business 4 1 city departments 4 1 non-profit organizations 2 0 books 2 0 water bill 2 0 research conferences 1 0 interpersonal relations 1 0 environmental interest groups 1 0 other interest groups 1 0 school/college/university 1 0 Total

8 Is Drought Linked to Climate Change? When asked about water scarcity in their region, over half of Texans (66%) agree or strongly agree that climate change is a cause. However, other potential causes of regional water scarcity received more attention than climate change. Increased demand Normal rain cycles Residential development Inadequate resource management Overuse of groundwater Overuse of surface water Climate change 0 20% 40% 60% 80%

9 Groups that Relate Climate Change to Drought No (34%) Yes (66%) Gender Age Political Party Race Ethnicity Education Male 49% 51% Female 24% 76% % 63% % 66% % 63% % 65% 65 and over 29% 71% Republican 45% 55% Democrat 20% 80% Independent 37% 63% Other 43% 57% White 36% 64% Black or African American 13% 87% American Indian and Alaskan Native 33% 67% Asian 40% 60% Some other race 24% 76% Two or more races 29% 71% Hispanic or Latino 22% 78% Not Hispanic or Latino 36% 64% High School Graduate or Less 21% 79% Some college, no degree 31% 69% Associate's degree 31% 69% Bachelor's degree 37% 37% Graduate or Professional Degree 47% 53%

10 Climate Change Links to Drought Attitudes and Policy Support Drought Worry Drought Frequency Drought Severity Policy Support Is Climate Change a Cause of Drought? NEP Social Capital Yes (66%) No (34%) Agree (66%) Disagree (34%) Strong (16%) Weak (84%) Not at all 16% 38% 20% 32% 15% 26 % Somewhat worried 56% 49% 51% 52% 49% 52% Worried 15% 5% 13% 9% 22% 10% Very worried 17% 7% 17% 7% 16% 13% Rarely 34% 44% 35% 40% 35% 37% Some of the Time 40% 35% 38% 39% 40% 38% Often 21% 18% 22% 18% 21% 20% Always 5% 3% 6% 3% 5% 5% Less severe 6% 8% 7% 5% 3% 7% Same severity 58% 80% 58% 80% 60% 67% More severe 36% 13% 35% 15% 36% 26% Infrastructure 92% 93% 91% 95% 84% 94% Voluntary conservation campaigns 96% 91% 96% 92% 98% 94% Mandatory rationing 86% 73% 86% 73% 88% 80% Tax incentives for water-saving equipment 88% 86% 88% 86% 90% 87% Low-interest loans for water-saving equipment 88% 75% 87% 75% 88% 82% Impact fees on developers 84.0% 81.4% 88.7% 77.5% 90.3% 82.3%

11 Where Should Solutions Come From? Texans would like drought management to be focused at the local level. When asked what role stakeholders should play in managing drought, the leading roles were allocated to local government with decreasing authority given to more broadly focused institutions. The least authority is allocated to private industry and land developers. Local Government Local River Authority/Aquifer Authority State Government Regional Board Individual Citizens Federal Government Industry Land Developers No Role Limited Role Participatory Role Lead Role

12 Confidence in Sources of Solutions Local River Authority/Aquifer Authority Regional Board Local Government State Government Individual Citizens Federal Government Industry Land Developers Not at all Confident Somewhat Confident Confident Very Confident Confidence in each of the stakeholders is low overall. On average, Texans are not confident in any of the stakeholders to manage water resources. Respondents have very low confidence in private industry or land developers to manage water.

13 Conclusions Texans are very concerned about drought They see climate change as relevant, but less important than other factors There are group differences among citizens about the causes of drought and solutions There is an attitudinal base of support for policy initiatives to deal with drought Greater emphasis is placed on local authority for solutions