NASA Global Hawk Altitude Cruising Range: 45,000 65,000 ft Duration: 33 hrs DU Aerosol Payload First Science Mission: Winter 2010

Transcription

1 DU Aerosol Group Develops Instruments, Makes In situ Aerosol Measurements: Air Quality, O 3 Depletion, Aerosol-Cloud Interactions, Volcanic Clouds, New Particle Formation NASA Global Hawk Altitude Cruising Range: 45,000 65,000 ft Duration: 33 hrs DU Aerosol Payload First Science Mission: Winter 2010 NASA WB-57F Altitude Cruising Range: 45,000 65,000 ft Duration: 6 hrs DU Aerosol Payload in nose NASA Photos

2 NASA ER-2, DC-8, WB-57F NCAR C-130, HIAPER,Electra, UK FAAM, DLR Falcon, Russian Geophysica, NPGS Twin Otter DU Aerosol Group: Instruments & Inlets, >300 Flights & Science

3 Gavin Schmidt, NASA GISS Black line is average of the forecast models Grey band is the range. 3

4 Futures: IPCC Scenarios Range of predictions for 2100: Business as Usual Scenario

5 Dr. Battistis Slides Agriculture yields must double by Norman Borlaug reinvented agriculture and saved a billion lives. Your homework is to do that again by Climate change is 5 coming for that billion and their grand kids.

6 A Pedagogical Point of View Teach the physics and chemistry: Radiation heat transfer (photons, absorption emission, black bodies, greenhouse gases, albedo, ocean acidification... Too much stuff- so pick carefully. Do labs (depending on level IR Cameras, cloud chamber). 1 st Law: Lots of examples and labs possible. Energy balance on a pond Less than $10 k for a net radiometer and 0.002C temperature loggers Measurement: Show how do we know that the internal energy of the climate system is increasing and that GHGs provide much more energy than is needed to explain that increase. Climate Models (?): End up with parameterizations and aerosol-cloud interactions (account for greatest uncertainty). My area: I do not know how to do it well.

7 A Policy Point of View Today s emissions will be felt for 1000 years. Discount that! Bad stuff will happen under BAU (WAIS, Greenland, Olive Oil, reverse carbon sinks, just not sure when.) Current accounting has nothing in it for ecosystem disruption. Social Cost of Carbon relies heavily on health externalities. Carbon burning escapes full cost and is subsidized by dying air-breathers. Bullshit rules DC. See Harry Frankfurt. Or Plato (The Gorgias). More doctors smoke Camels than any other brand. Will we modify albedo? (burning carbon does) See NRC Climate Intervention report: Reflecting Sunlight... Negative emissions are essential. See NRC Climate Intervention report: Removing CO 2

8 Solar, Short Wavelength Radiation into the system (from Sun) Albedo ~ 0.3 Net Absorbed: 238 W/m 2 Fourier understood the idea of radiation balance in early 1800 s Current Net: About +0.5 W/m 2 First Law: More energy in than out: Warming, Melting, Evaporation Infrared, Long Wavelength out ~237.5 W/m 2

9 Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I; U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, USGCRP, 2017

10 Greenland Ice by GRACE 10

11 Cause and Effect This is a First Law Problem. The amount of energy required to warm the atmosphere and the oceans, evaporate the water, melt the ice is much less than that supplied by added CO 2 alone. The observed effects are warming, melting and evaporation. The cause is added internal energy. ADDED GHGs have sourced more than enough cause to explain the effect.

12 Thank You

13 Explosive Volcanic Eruptions: Proof of Fast-Response Climate Change Due to Forcing Changing forcing changes the temperature (and water vapor, etc.). (S. Solomon IPCC Slide) If volcanoes can cool, then GHG must warm.

14 PS. Albedo Modification Tambora 1815, Agung 1963, El Chichon 1982, Pinatubo 1991 all cooled climate perceptibly. Models do pretty well with satellite era eruptions. How about a diy stratospheric aerosol cloud? Pretty cheap and certainly cool(ing).

15 PS. Albedo Modification Lots of unintended side effects: Mess with S Asian monsoon? Alter other precipitation patterns? See: National Research Council Climate Intervention: Reflecting Sunlight to Cool Earth. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.