IPCC Tier - definition

Transcription

1 IPCC Tier - definition

2 What is the UNFCCC? United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Adopted in 1992, entered into force in signatory countries (2014) provides a framework for negotiating specific international treaties (called "protocols") that may set binding limits on greenhouse gases. One of the first tasks set by the UNFCCC was for signatory nations to establish national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories which include both emissions and removals

3 Goal and objectives of the UNFCCC What is the overall goal? to protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of mankind. What are the further objectives? to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

4 What is the IPCC? Introduction Established by WMO and UNEP in 1988 Open to all member countries of the United Nations Does not conduct research or monitor but assessment of published literature Provide rigorous and balanced scientific information to decision-makers IPCC reports are policy relevant and policy neutral; they are never policy prescriptive Nobel Peace Prize winner in 2007

5 Role of the IPCC To assess on a comprehensive, objective and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation

6 IPCC organization

7 Task force on national GHG inventories (TFI) Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (TFI) was established by the IPCC to oversee the IPCC National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme (IPCC-NGGIP). The core activity is to: develop and refine an internationally-agreed methodology for the calculation and reporting of national GHG emissions and removals encourage its use by countries participating in the IPCC and by parties of UNFCCC. The NGGIP also established and maintains an Emission Factor Database. Guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories

8 What are the IPCC guidelines? IPCC Guidelines for national GHG inventories Consistent methods for countries to account for: - GHG emissions - Changes in carbon stocks - Changes in land use that result in changes in GHG emissions and/or carbon stocks For all sectors including: energy; transport; buildings; industry; agriculture, forestry, and other landuse (AFOLU); and waste management

9 IPCC guidelines for national GHG inventories for land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) 2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Wetlands 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2003 Good Practice Guidance (GPG) for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Definitions and Methodological Options to Inventory Emissions from Direct Human-induced Degradation of Forests and Devegetation of Other VegetationTypes 2000 IPCC Good Practice Guidance (GPG) and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories 1996 IPCC Revised Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventory

10 GHG inventory: Agriculture, forestry and other land use Forest land Cropland Grassland Wetlands Settlements Other Lands

11 ha/year x tonne/ha = tonne/year Estimation of carbon emissions and removals involve two factors:

12 What is a Tier? A tier represents a level of methodological complexity Tier 1 is the basic method Tier 2 is intermediate Tier 3 is the most demanding in term of complexity and data requirements MORE ACCURATE

13 3 hierarchical methodological tiers (IPCC Def) Tier 1: A simple first order approach (GLOBAL DEFAULT) that uses spatially coarse default data based on globally available data characterized by large uncertainties and sometimes with methods involving several simplifying assumptions; Tier 2: A more accurate approach (LOCAL DEFAULT) substituting country or region specific values for the general defaults and more disaggregated activity data characterized by relatively smaller uncertainties; Tier 3: Higher order methods involving detailed modeling and/or inventory measurement systems driven by data at a greater resolution that provide estimates with lower uncertainties than the previous two methods. (GPG-LULUCF and 2006 Guidelines )

14 IPCC tier 1 biomass values The default carbon fraction = 0.47 Source: IPCC (2006)

15 IPCC tier 2 biomass values of Thailand Tier 2 Source: Kasetsart University Faculty of Forestry [KUFF] (2010)

16 Carbon stock in aboveground biomass of forest in Thailand in 2008 (Tier 1) TIER1 TIER 2 ABG biomass CF carbon stock ABG biomass CF carbon stock FOREST TYPE (t dry matter/ha) (tc/ha) (t dry matter/ha) (tc/ha) Evergreen Mangrove Mixed Deciduous Dry dipterocarp

17 2.1. Deforestation? AEZ map Zone 1 = Tropical rain forest Zone 2 = Tropical moist deciduous forest Zone 3 = Tropical dry forest Zone 4 = Tropical shrubland Type of vegetation HWP# Fire Use? Final use after deforestation Forested area (ha) Deforested area (ha) Total Emissions (tco2-eq) Balance that will be deforested (tdm/ha) (y/n) Start Without * With * Without With Without With Forest Zone 1 0 NO Set aside D 2000 D , ,502 Mangrove 0 NO Set aside D 1000 D , ,550 Forest Zone 2 0 NO Set aside D 500 D , ,748 Forest Zone 3 0 NO Set aside 50 0 D 50 D , ,540 Select the vegetation 0 NO Select Use after deforestation 0 0 D 0 D Select the vegetation 0 NO Select Use after deforestation 0 0 D 0 D Select the vegetation 0 NO Select Use after deforestation 0 0 D 0 D Select the vegetation 0 NO Select Use after deforestation 0 0 D 0 D #Harvested Wood Products * Note concerning dynamics of change : "D" corresponds to default/linear, "I" to immediate and "E" to exponential (Please refer to the guidelines) Tier 2 Total Deforestation 610, ,340 Uncertainty level % of uncertainty Gross fluxes Without 610, With 0 Net balance -610,

18 Use this part only if you want to refine the analysis with Tier 2 coe (default values are provided for your information only, while EX-ACT will u Type of vegetation that will be deforested Above-ground Default Tier 2 Forest Zone Forest Zone Forest Zone Forest Zone Plantation Zone Plantation Zone Plantation Zone Plantation Zone Mangrove Deforestation? AEZ map Zone 1 = Tropical rain forest Zone 2 = Tropical moist deciduous forest Zone 3 = Tropical dry forest Zone 4 = Tropical shrubland Type of vegetation HWP# Fire Use? Final use after deforestation Forested area (ha) Deforested area (ha) Total Emissions (tco2-eq) Balance that will be deforested (tdm/ha) (y/n) Start Without * With * Without With Without With Forest Zone 1 0 NO Set aside D 2000 D , ,003 Mangrove 0 NO Set aside D 1000 D , ,597 Forest Zone 2 0 NO Set aside D 500 D , ,860 Forest Zone 3 0 NO Set aside 50 0 D 50 D , ,198 Select the vegetation 0 NO Select Use after deforestation 0 0 D 0 D Select the vegetation 0 NO Select Use after deforestation 0 0 D 0 D Select the vegetation 0 NO Select Use after deforestation C-balance 0 Tier 01 = D-610,3400 D Select the vegetation 0 NO Select Use after deforestation 0 0 D 0 D #Harvested Wood Products * Note concerning dynamics of change : "D" corresponds to default/linear, "I" to immediate and "E" to exponential (Please refer to the guidelines) Tier 2 C-balance Tier 2 = -576,658 Difference = 33,682 tco 2 -e Total Deforestation 576, ,658 Use this part only if you want to refine the analysis with Tier 2 coe (default values are provided for your information only, while EX-ACT will u Type of vegetation that will be deforested Above-ground Default Tier 2 Forest Zone Forest Zone Forest Zone Forest Zone Plantation Zone Plantation Zone Plantation Zone Plantation Zone Mangrove Uncertainty level % of uncertainty Gross fluxes Without 576, With 0 Net balance -576, Reduced uncertainty

19 Notes about UNCERTAINTIES With Tier 2 uncertainty decreases by on * EX-ACT calculations are either on default coefficients (Tier 1 approach) or values provided by the user (Tier 2 approach). A single project may use a combination of Tier 1 and Tier 2 approaches. It is thus extremely difficult to provide uncertainties associated with the values provided by EX- ACT. Most default coefficients are associated with large to extremely large uncertainties. However, as it is important to have an idea of the uncertainties the table below provide indication of the minimum level of uncertainty are user may expect. The following representation of the level of uncertainties was used: % * Low uncertainty 10 ** Moderate uncertainties 20 *** High uncertainties 33 **** Very high uncertainty 50 Indication of the level of uncertainty expected Components of the Project Main approach used CO2 N2O CH4 CO2 N2O CH4 Biomass Soil Biomass Soil Deforestation Tier 2 ** ** * * Forest Degradation Tier 1 *** **** ** ** Afforestation and Reforestation Tier 1 *** **** ** ** Non Forest Land Use Change Tier 1 *** **** ** ** Agriculture Annual Crops Tier 1 ** **** ** ** Agroforestry/Perennial Crops Tier 1 **** **** ** ** Rice Tier 1 ** **** ** ** Grassland Tier 1 ** **** ** ** Organic soils and peatlands Tier 1 *** **** **** **** Other GHG Emissions CO2 (other) CO2 (other) Livestock Tier *** *** Inputs Tier 1 *** *** Other Investments Tier 2 ** *** Coastal Wetlands Tier 1 *** --- *** Fishery&Aquaculture Tier 1 *** **** Problem of permanency may arise Total uncertainty

20 Take away note When do we switch to Tier 2 coefficients Whenever it is possible when land areas are altered due to the analyzed project processes Local and country/region specific data (biomass, soil C content, emissions factors in livestock ) will lead to a higher degree of precision and accuracy and reduce uncertainty on the GHG appraisal When you decide to use Tier 2 ALWAYS justify your assumptions This will give substance to the reasoning behind the C appraisal and could facilitate potential revisions (MRV) According to GEF guidelines only TIER 1 is recommended