Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes. Guus Velders

Transcription

1 Scenarios of ODSs and ODS substitutes Guus Velders 1 02 May 2011

2 Chapter 5: WMO/UNEP Ozone assessment: 2010 A focus on information and options for policymakers: Metrics: update of lifetimes, GWPs, ODPs New scenarios of ODSs from now-2100 Options for policymakers to reductions in ODSs Impacts of other human activities Scenarios of HFCs as ODS replacements World avoided scenarios Ozone impacts and climate impacts Authors: John Daniel, Guus Velders (CLAa), Olaf Morgenstern, Darin Toohey, Tim Wallington, Donald Wuebbles (LA), and many others 2

3 World avoided for ozone layer Montreal Protocol is working Large increases in mixing ratios prevented Large ozone depletion prevented at poles, mid-latitudes and equator Large increase in UV-B radiation prevented Increase in adverse effects prevented 3

4 World avoided for climate Climate protection by Montreal Protocol Large contribution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions ODSs potent greenhouse gases By 2010, decrease in GWP-weighted emissions of 10 GtCO 2 -eq/yr About 5 times Kyoto Protocol target for Reduction in radiative forcing of 0.23 W/m 2 (13% of CO 2 ) by

5 New scenarios constructed Constraints for : Observed mixing ratios Rate of change + lifetime historic annual emissions Bank per species for 2008 from TEAP (bottom up) Production reported to UNEP for Assumptions for baseline : Montreal Protocol limits HCFCs extrapolation of historic growth in production Annual release from bank = emission / bank Options: Zero production; emission; bank destruction 5

6 Lifetimes of halocarbons Revision: CFC-114 from 300 to 190 yr CFC-115 from 1700 to 1020 yr HFC-23 from 270 to 222 yr Only small changes to others HFCs and the HCFCs Lifetimes affect: GWPs, ODPs Emissions derived from observations Scenarios for future ODS concentrations and ozone layer Closure of budget (bottom-up vs top-down) CFC-11 (lifetime now 45 yr) important for all CFCs CCl 4 uncertainty in budget 6

7 Future mixing ratios ODSs Current baseline in black Old (WMO, 2003, 2007) baselines in red CFCs: All mixing ratios decreasing Small change cf 2003/2007 CCl 4 (carbon tetrachlorine) Decreasing Significant change cf 2003/2007 CH 3 CCl 3 (methyl chloroform) Approaching zero 7

8 Future mixing ratios ODSs HCFCs: Increasing use in developing countries Increasing mixing ratios Changes due to accelerated phase-out of 2007 Halon 1211 decreasing Halon 1301 still increasing (slightly) 8

9 EESC: Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine Metric for ozone layer depletion EESC returns to 1980 levels by 2046 for midlatitude 2073 for Antarctic Zero emissions past (13 year earlier than baseline) 9

10 Comparing ODS scenarios by different metrics ODP-emissions - EESC GWP-emissions - RF 10

11 Impacts of new options Success of the Montreal Protocol: ODS options have less impact on future ozone than what has already been achieved Other compounds and activities become relatively more important: Climate changes through direct and indirect effects: CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O: temperature, dynamics, chemistry Very-short lived species (VSLS) Geoengineering by injection of sulphur in stratosphere Emissions from rockets and aviations Emissions related to biofuels 11

12 Hypothetical cases for accelerating recovery Change EESC Change ozone Change emissions GtCO 2 -eq/yr 2010 Bank capture and destruction CFCs 11% 0.13% 7.9 Halons 14% 0.15% 0.4 HCFCs 4.8% 0.07% 4.9 Production stop after 2010 HCFCs 8.8% 0.15% 13.2 CH 3 Br for QPS 6.7% 0.09% Emission stop after 2010 CCl 4 7.6% 0.9 CH 3 CCl 3 0.1%

13 Hypothetical cases Change EESC Change ozone Change emissions GtCO 2 -eq/yr 2010 Bank capture and destruction CFCs 11% 0.13% 7.9 Halons 14% 0.15% 0.4 HCFCs 4.8% 0.07% 4.9 Production stop after 2010 HCFCs 8.8% 0.15% 13.2 CH 3 Br for QPS 6.7% 0.09% Emission stop after 2010 CCl 4 7.6% 0.9 CH 3 CCl 3 0.1% HFCs (more scenario 0% 0% up to 170 N 2 O dependent) 0.35%

14 HFCs as ODS replacement Global phase-out of CFCs and HCFCs Much of application demand for refrigeration, air conditioning, heating and thermal-insulating foam production to be met by HFCs Demand for HFCs increasing globally New scenarios for HFC use through 2020 or 2050 HFC growth expected especially in developing countries HCFC phase-out

15 HFC scenarios: emissions and radiative forcing Scenarios: Non-intervention (BAU) Intervention through techn. developments, policy incentives Climate benefits can be offset by projected increases in HFCs by 2050 HFC emissions can reach 9-19% of CO 2 by

16 Comparing emissions by different metrics Emissions weighted by: Mass GWP ODP 16

17 Montreal Protocol initiated steps CFCs HCFCs HFCs??? CO 2 Isobutane HFO-1234yf Mineral wool Thank you for your attention 17