The role of nuclear power in Janne Wallenius Professor Reactor Physics, KTH

Transcription

1 The role of nuclear power in 2050 Janne Wallenius Professor Reactor Physics, KTH

2 Questions to be addressed How efficient has nuclear power been in reducing CO2 emissions? To what extent can nuclear contribute to meet objectives for 2050? What about costs? What about fuel resources & waste?

3 Nuclear power and carbon dioxide CO2 emissions [1900 = 1.0] Denmark Sweden Carbon footprint of nuclear power on par with hydro and wind power if centrifuge technique is used for enrichment of 235 U. CO2 emissions peaked in many European countries in Oil crisis or nuclear?

4 Nuclear power vs wind, cap and trade CO2 emissions [1973 = 1.0] Denmark CO2 reduction of 40±3% achieved in direct correlation with deployment of nuclear power in Sweden 15±6% reduction achieved in Denmark by wind, cap & trade Sweden Cap & trade as introduced in Sweden appears not very efficient (electricity production already carbon-free)

5 France vs Germany CO2 emissions [1973 = 1.0] France Germany CO2 reduction of 30% achieved in France following deployment of nuclear power Slight increase from mid 80 s. Reduction by 2007 (25%) on par with Germany

6 Nuclear power vs wind, cap and trade Nuclear power deployment combined with cap and trade most efficient strategy for CO2 reduction 40% reduction achievable for full conversion to carbon-free electricity production

7 Can nuclear contribute globally? 14%-17% of electricity produced by nuclear power 27% of CO2 emissions derive from electricity production Significant growth of nuclear required to have impact on CO2 reduction. Chinese example: 1000 GW electricity production, expected to grow to 1600 GWe by GW nuclear electricity planned for 2020, 160 GWe for 2030 Deployment rate in Sweden & France: 0.1 reactor/mpersons/year Similar deployment rate would permit full replacement of coal with nuclear in China by 2030, but would require ~ 1500 reactors!

8 What about costs? Costs for nuclear power have increased over the last decade Costs for low carbon alternatives have also increased Finnish TVO: nuclear is lowest cost option for new power UAE and Turkey purchases nuclear for 5 G$/reactor

9 Who can build? Today: 57 reactors under construction AREVA: EPR (1600 MWe), ATMEA (1100 MWe) Westinghouse: AP1000 (1100 MWe) Atomstroyexport: VVER (1200 MWe) Korean consortium: APR (1400 MWe) Mitsubishi: APWR (1700 MWe) Toshiba & Hitachi: ABWR (1350 MWe) General Electric: ESBWR (1500 MWe) AECL: ACR (1000 MWe)

10 Fuel resources OECD/NEA: Known (probable) uranium resources last 80 (170) years at present rate of consumption. A five-fold increase in nuclear power production would require to find new resources. However, known (probable) copper resources last only 29 (57) years considerably more urgent problem, in particular for large scale deployment of wind power. Depleted uranium stored at uranium enrichment plants contains energy for 5000 years of energy production at present rate, would easily sustain five-fold increase of production!

11 Generation IV reactors and waste recycling Fast neutron Generation IV reactors increase fuel resources by a factor of 100 Permit recycling of Pu, Am & Cm, hence reducing radio-toxic inventory in repository by factor of 100. Require 4 tons Pu for startup. Pu from operating one LWR for 60 years may start up 3 Gen-IV reactors. In 2040, > 1000 Gen-IV reactors could be started on spent LWR fuel

12 Generation IV reactors and waste recycling LWR Spent fuel 65% Fission products Fast neutron Generation IV reactors increase fuel resources by a factor of 100 Permit recycling of Pu, Am & Cm, hence reducing radio-toxic inventory in repository by factor of 100. Reprocessing Repository Require 4 tons Pu for startup. TRU U Spent fuel Pu from operating one LWR for 60 years may start up 3 Gen-IV reactors. 35% In 2040, > 1000 Gen-IV reactors could be started on spent LWR fuel Fast Reactor

13 Generation IV reactors and waste recycling LWR Spent fuel 65% Fission products Fast neutron Generation IV reactors increase fuel resources by a factor of 100 Permit recycling of Pu, Am & Cm, hence reducing radio-toxic inventory in repository by factor of 100. Reprocessing Repository Require 4 tons Pu for startup. TRU U Spent fuel Pu from operating one LWR for 60 years may start up 3 Gen-IV reactors. 35% Generation IV reactors In 2040, > 1000 Gen-IV reactors could be started on spent LWR fuel Fast Reactor

14 The sodium cooled fast reactor

15 Gen-IV sodium fast reactor + Coolant technology demonstrated on industrial scale + Prototype feasible to take in operation Good breeding ratio Costs for prevention of sodium water interaction Safety issues related to boiling of sodium Phénix Marcoule Frankrike

16 The lead cooled fast reactor

17 The lead cooled fast reactor + No rapid reaction with water. Heat exchanger can be located in primary vessel (cost advantage). + High boiling temperature, small risk for coolant voiding K745 Sovjetisk ubåt + High fraction of natural convection, independent of pumping power for heat removal under accident conditions Coolant technology only demonstrated in military sub-marines Costs for corrosion control Erosion of pump materials

18 European Sustainable Nuclear Industrial Initiative (ESNII) Plan for research, development and demonstration of av sustainable nuclear power, formulated by European research centers and industry. Priority given to: Sodium cooled fast reactor of 600 MWe power, to be operational 2022 ASTRID Lead cooled fast reactor of100 MWe power, to be operational 2025 ALFRED Helium cooled fast reactor of 50 MWth power, to be operational 2025 ALLEGRO Total estimated cost for ESNII (including support facilities) ~10 G. Commercial deployment possible by 2040

19 Conclusions Nuclear power can contribute significantly to CO2 reduction before 2050, at competitive costs. Assuming construction rates similar to those achieved in Sweden & France, China & India could have CO2 free electricity production with 3000 reactors by 2030 (this is unlikely to happen, though). Uranium resources might become an issue (copper resources much more urgent issue for energy production in general) Waste from today s fuel fabrication and reactor operation can be used to start more than 1000 Gen-IV reactors after 2040 and provide fuel for thousands of years. Present projections, taking industrial and economic constraints into account, vary between LWRs and a few tens of SFRs in the world by 2050.