Pigmeat & Poultry Market Situation

Transcription

1 Pigmeat & Poultry Market Situation Peter Duggan 11 th Jan 2019 AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 2009

2 Irish pigmeat export plant supplies 3% higher in ,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20, ,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

3 Irish pig supplies 3% higher in ( 000 hd) 2018 ( 000 hd) Difference ( 000 hd) % Change ROI 3,192 3, Live Exports Total 3,642 3,

4 Output to stabilise during 2019 Despite increase in the breeding herd (June 2018) Anecdotal evidence suggests some destocking in recent months However, any decrease in breeding numbers should be offset by continuous advancement in productivity levels

5 June census results show EU breeding numbers over 1% lower % Change (June 2018 v s 2017) 1.3% fall at 11.7 mn head

6 More recent data suggests some further downsizing German breeding numbers 4% lower (Nov 18) German breeding farms 6% lower at 7,800 units Denmark breeding pig numbers 1.4% higher (Oct 18)

7 EU pigmeat production expected to hold

8 Cent/kg European prices sluggish since Sept Ire EU DK 100

9 Trade

10 2018 Irish Pigmeat Trade The value of this trade has fallen by 6% to 666 million Pigmeat exports have increased by 6% to 264,000 tonnes

11 African Swine Fever (ASF) in China Officially confirmed on the 3 rd August 100 cases recorded from 23 provinces 600,000 pigs culled in a four month period Weak Biosecurity

12 Market Response to ASF Pigs finished at an earlier date Compensation for finisher pigs 150/head Average producer costs are /head Restrictions on movement of pork influencing producer prices

13 Regional price v s national average (CNY/kg) National average 14 Cny/kg

14 Consumer preference shifting to chilled and frozen pork meat in the South EU should be the main winner from ASF Fallout in Asia if DE remains ASF free

15 Other watch outs to monitor from China A rise in speculation US trade relationship State Intervention Spread of ASF into other Asian countries How the Renminbi performs against the dollar

16 Globally US pigmeat production to reach record high at 12mn tns Investment in capacity continues Russian industry growth still evident Brazilian pigmeat production will increase after a year of instability Russian market reopened in Nov 18 Appreciation of Real against Dollar Mexican imports to increase 6% to 1.08mn tns despite trade disputes Japanese imports to show solid single digit growth 1 st Feb 2019, EU FTA with Japan will support increased frozen imports from EU

17 Home Market Performance

18 Irish consumption % Change 52 w/e 2 nd December Value Price/kg Volume Total Meat Pork Sausages Bacon PPSCM -5.4

19 Promotional focus for 2019 Pork Ad: Jan Apr-May Ham & Bacon Ad: Feb-Mar Oct-Nov New pigmeat strategy ( ) will focus on: Building preference for QA pigmeat on home market Targeting selected export markets Building proof points Developing a focused differentiated position Route to market support for client companies

20 Summary Irish & EU pigmeat production to stabilize in 2019 ASF will have a significant impact on global trade for 2019 US output to hit record levels Leading global importers such as Japan and Mexico to record increased imports during 2019 Home market performance showing a strong resilience

21 Poultry market update

22 EU broiler price running almost 3% higher

23 Irish poultry supplies continue to hit record levels Million head 10.0 Irish poultry supplies 3% higher at 99m birds Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

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25 2019 Global production impacted by.. Brazil Strengthening local demand to support 2% increase in production China H7N9 virus well contained/ more confidence in local chicken Some shift in consumer preference following ASF outbreak EU Ongoing increase in UK and Polish output US Solid margins supporting increased investment in new production capacity

26 2018 Global Trade Impacted by.. Brazil EU position on salmonella Saudi changing stunning requirements Legacy impact of weak flesh Demand in MENA region cooling US Ongoing Recovery from AI & Political bans EU Strong growth in Sub Saharan Africa offset by weaker exports to South Africa

27 Irish poultry consumption, 52 w/e 2 nd Dec 2018

28 New Chicken Campaign New TV Ad- Providing meal inspiration for target audience Roll out towards the end of January Outdoor campaign Digital support New poultry strategy ( )

29 Summary Irish production hit another record during 2018 Global production to experience strong growth during 2019 Virtually all key export regions to show output growth ASF should support increased output in China New chicken campaign to encourage new consumers into category

30 Thank You Peter Duggan 11 th Jan 2019 AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 2009