Terrorism, Repression, & Stealth Aggression. Rob Williams, Daniel Gustafson, Navin Bapat. University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
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1 Peace Science 2016 Terrorism, Repression, & Stealth Aggression Rob Williams, Daniel Gustafson, Navin Bapat University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill October 22, 2016 Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 1/18
2 Puzzle Terrorism inflicts relatively low levels of damage Repression can worsen terrorism We continue to observe violent crackdowns after terrorist attacks Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 2/18
3 Research Question Why do states continue to use violent repression following terrorist attacks given the possibility of backlash? Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 3/18
4 Theory: Fear of Power Transitions Terrorism can be locally effective Creates incentives for rivals to interfere Uncertainty over whether or not attacks are foreign inspired Repression may be the best alternative Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 4/18
5 Hypothesis H 1 : Repression is more likely in states with an international rival. Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 5/18
6 Theory: Political Opportunism If selectorate believes there is a risk of sponsored terrorism, government has leeway in response Spectre of external threat can be used to justify violence against political opponents Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 6/18
7 Theory: Political Opportunism Civil conflict may worsen as adversaries counter-mobilize Government can frame political opponents as external threat Citizens must decide between incumbent and foreign rival Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 7/18
8 Theory: Political Opportunism If the government is using this strategy, we would expect repression in areas: Where the government does not fully control territory Where the government can project power That receive less government assistance. Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 8/18
9 Hypotheses H 2 : Repression is more likely at moderate distances from the capital. H 3 : Repression is more likely in areas with fewer incumbent supporters. Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 9/18
10 Research Design Sample: Africa, Asia & Middle East (except Syria), Country Shapefiles: CShapes (Weidmann, Kuse & Gleditsch 2010) Unit of Observation: terrorist attack Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 10/18
11 Variables Dependent variable: state repression (binary) Terrorist Attacks: Global Terrorism Database (LaFree & Dugan 2007) State Repression: UCDP Georeferenced Event Data (Sundberg & Melander 2013) Independent variables: international rivalry capital distance electrification Analysis: logistic regression Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 11/18
12 Geocoding * * Space-time window: 3 months and 50km Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 12/18
13 Results Logistic Regression Spatial Rivalry + ln Distance to Capital + ln Distance to Capital 2 - Nightlights - Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 13/18
14 Rivalry 100% Rivalry=1 100% Rivalry=0 Pr. (Repression) 75% 50% 25% Pr. (Repression) 75% 50% 25% 0% Distance 0% Predicted Probability Distance 95% Confidence Interval Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 14/18
15 Nightlights 100% Pr. (Repression) 75% 50% 25% 0% Night Lights Predicted Probability 95% Confidence Interval Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 15/18
16 ROC Curve True Positive Fraction False Positive Fraction Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 16/18
17 Conclusions Repression can be motivated by fear of foreign subversion Fears of foreign subversion can also be used as a pretext to repress domestic opponents Future directions: exploring whether theory travels to other events that could be evidence of foreign subversion e.g. protests and riots Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 17/18
18 Conclusions Thank you! Questions? Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 18/18
19 Appendix Results Political Competition Fuel Exporter Nightlights Calibration Data Sources References Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 19/18
20 Appendix: Results Spatial Rivalry 1.01 (0.06) ln Distance to Capital 0.63 (0.25) ln Distance to Capital (0.40) Nightlights 0.02 (0.00) ln Fatalities 0.10 (0.03) xrcomp 1.59 (0.22) xrcomp (0.05) ln GDP pc 0.47 (0.03) Fuel Exporter 0.20 (0.07) Area of Country 0.00 (0.00) Population Density 0.00 (0.00) Intercept 3.37 (0.39) AIC BIC Log Likelihood Deviance Num. obs p < 0.05 Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 20/18
21 Appendix: Distance 100% Pr. (Repression) 75% 50% 25% 0% Distance Predicted Probability 95% Confidence Interval Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 21/18
22 Appendix: xrcomp 100% Pr. (Repression) 75% 50% 25% 0% xrcomp 95% Confidence Interval Predicted Probability Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 22/18
23 Appendix: Fuel Exporters 100% Pr. (Repression) 75% 50% 25% 0% 0 1 Fuel Exporter 95% Confidence Interval Predicted Probability Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 23/18
24 Appendix: Nightlights Calibration Calibrated using invariant region method (Wu, He, Peng, Li & Zhong 2013) with Mauritius, Okinawa, & Puerto Rico as invariant regions in power regression model: DN calibrated = a (DN raw ) b Figure: Puerto Rico False Color Composite Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 24/18
25 Appendix: Data Sources Spatial Rivalry (Thompson & Dreyer 2012) Nightlights (National Geophysical Data Center 2014) Political Competition (Marshall, Gurr & Jaggers 2014) GDP & Fuel Exporter (World Bank 2015) Population Density (Center for International Earth Science Information Network - CIESIN - Columbia University; United Nations Food and Agriculture Programme - FAO; Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical - CIAT 2005, Center for International Earth Science Information Network - CIESIN - Columbia University 2015) Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 25/18
26 References I Center for International Earth Science Information Network - CIESIN - Columbia University Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density. Technical report NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) Palisades, NY:. Center for International Earth Science Information Network - CIESIN - Columbia University; United Nations Food and Agriculture Programme - FAO; Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical - CIAT Gridded Population of the World, Version 3 (GPWv3): Population Count Grid. Technical report NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) Palisades, NY:. LaFree, Gary & Laura Dugan Introducing the Global Terrorism Database. Terrorism and Political Violence 19(2): Marshall, Monty G., Ted Robert Gurr & Keith Jaggers POLITY IV PROJECT: Dataset Users Manual. Codebook Center for Systemic Peace. National Geophysical Data Center DMSP-OLS Nighttime Lights Time Series, Version 4. Dataset. Sundberg, Ralph & Erik Melander Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset. Journal of Peace Research 50(4): Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 26/18
27 References II Thompson, William & David R. Dreyer Handbook of International Rivalries: Washington, DC: SAGE/CQ Press. Weidmann, Nils B., Doreen Kuse & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch The Geography of the International System: The CShapes Dataset. International Interactions 36(1): World Bank World Development Indicators Technical report Washington, D.C.:. Wu, Jiansheng, Shengbin He, Jian Peng, Weifeng Li & Xiaohong Zhong Intercalibration of DMSP-OLS Night-Time Light Data by the Invariant Region Method. International Journal of Remote Sensing 34(20): Williams, Gustafson, & Bapat Terrorism & Repression 27/18
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