Water Source / Supply Study Workshop #1. Joint Shared Service Committee May 18th

Transcription

1 Water Source / Supply Study Workshop #1 Joint Shared Service Committee May 18th

2 Presentation Overview Water System Review Water Demand Planning Water Conservation Choices Supply Source Needs Next Steps Sources and Infrastructure Water Issues Population and Water Use Conservation Policy Options Supply Needs to 2041 New Source Criteria 2

3 Purpose of the Source Supply Study Review and prioritize known sources 3 primary sources nearing capacity (7-10 years, subject to usage and growth) Water enabler of OCP goals Emerging challenges/opportunities to water supply Develop a refined solution set Evaluate and identify conservation, optimization and source/supply opportunities Phased, incrementable, affordable, sustainable, resilient, flexible approach 3

4 CURRENT SHARE OF TOTAL SUPPLY 12% 6% Norrish Cannell 82% Groundwater- Wells 80km of transmission pipe + multiple reservoirs and NWTP License capacity > reliable capacity triggers need to predict long term adequacy Portfolio of Sources: individual strengths offset weaknesses of others 4

5 Source Review Capacity Portfolio Cannel Groundwater Wells Norrish High-elevation, good quality source Fraction of supply needs; small watershed Best for winter demands or summer demand complement Reliable, low-treatment supply all year Trending water quality concerns and higher operational footprint Distributed source to address summer use and demands from growth Largest source with advanced treatment Turbidity spikes lowers capacity Transmission limited by pipe size Concerns regarding ability and cost to expand source storage Generally adequate capacity under normal conditions however new demands, drought and turbidity spikes may affect supply resiliency in 7 to 10 years. Emerging gap A go-to source for unplanned events (e.g. turbidity) and planned longterm growth. 5

6 Primary Opportunities for Water Supply Key Ingredients for Solution Sets Importance of an agreed upon direction for water conservation. Opportunity to resolve supply constraints or Optimization through transmission infrastructure. Need to establish a reliable source portfolio including prioritized expansion. 6

7 Role of Demand Planning Water Use Profile Prepare: the Commission and its customers for new initiatives and projects. Evaluate: choices to support broader community goals. Engage: test actions for staff to deliver on political and public aspirations. 12% 24% 14% 50% Ensure: compliance with regulations and best practices. Define: capital projects and levels of service. Residential Commercial Agriculture NRW 7 The use of multiple conservation tools over the 10 years demonstrates the ability of the public to adapt and conserve. But to keep demands lower still will require program enhancements.

8 Role of Demand Planning today s demand Point of Expansion MDD Maximum Day Demand Leaks Growth Drought Redundancy Restrictions Conservation Densification Efficiency Dictates source + system capacity and focuses conservation targets Maximum Day Demand Four-Year Average Residential ICI Agriculture NRW Total 52MLD 24MLD 12MLD 14MLD 102MLD 8

9 OCP Alignment Commitment to water conservation Use of Sustainable infrastructure Development Initiatives 9 reductions meters + longevity regulations Strategic densification Rural Enhancements Plan to 200,000 Commercial Intensification 1.5% to 2.0% Growth in All Demands AgRefresh Low Impact Development Evolve Urban Areas

10 Water Conservation Current Programs Common customer interface Strong base of similar methods to build from Outdoor Water Restrictions Consumption- Based Billing* Low-Flow Fixture Rebates Leak Kits Low-Cost Rain Barrels Irrigation Rebates Landscape Rebates Online Education and Tips Social Marketing and Engagement 10

11 Water Conservation Choices 1. Indoor + Outdoor Water Kits 2. Regulations: Reuse and Efficiency (Low Impact Development) 3. Tiered + Seasonal Rates 4. Watering Restrictions 5. Irrigation + Landscape Regulations 6. Education 7. Residential Water Use Audits 8. Rebates + Fixture Subsidies 9. Commercial Audits 10. Leak Surveys Cost-Effectiveness Implementation Effort Low Medium High 11

12 Demand Scenarios High Demand Scenario.35% Steady Program with Relaxed Targets Similar to current program Rely on education and information Select rebates and water kits Light tactics for new development Medium Demand Scenario.70% Enhanced Framework that Builds on Strengths Expand on High demand scenario Greater social marketing Apply water-use audits + resources More rebates + resources Medium-Low Demand Scenario 1.0% Enhanced program with low targets and less programming. Wind back some programs Metering with Bi-monthly billing Secure SG funding for meters Social marketing and info resources Low Demand Scenario 1.2% 12 Advanced Program that meets Best Practice+ Expand on Medium demand scenario Universal meters + tiered rates Greatest social marketing Reuse + recycling regulations Enforce select restrictions

13 Role of Demand Planning Reductions in 3x Scenarios New residential: 10% to 18% Existing residential: 10% to 15% ICI: 5% to 15% Agriculture: +75% to +25% NRW: 10% to 25% New residential: 20% to 55% Existing residential: 10% to 35% ICI: 5% to 15% Agriculture: n/a NRW: 10% to 25% Seasonal rates can help to achieve target reductions in about half the time of many other methods 13 Represent cumulative reductions over 25 years.

14 High Demand Scenario 0.35% 25 Year Demand Projections 160 MLD Status Quo 145MLD Medium Demand Scenario Low Demand Scenario 0.7% 1.2% Water Conservation Investments offset by deferring Source Expansion 130 MLD Med-Low 122 MLD 115MLD 14

15 Source Review Capacity Portfolio Cannel Groundwater Wells Norrish High-elevation, good quality source Fraction of supply and small watershed Best for winter demands and occasional summer demand complement Solution sets include conservation, optimization and source expansion to meet future demand projections. Reliable, low-treatment supply all year Trending water quality concerns and higher operational footprint Distributed source to address summer use and demands from growth Largest source with advanced treatment Turbidity spikes greatly lowers capacity Transmission limited by size of main pipe Concerns regarding ability and cost to expand source storage Strategically prioritize sources using criteria that enhance our portfolio. Better adapt to droughts More Consistent water quality Optimize sources & transmission Meet long-term source needs 15

16 Strategically prioritize sources using criteria that enhance our portfolio. Criteria to Prioritize Solution Sets Next Steps Resiliency Adequacy Serviceability Affordability Consistency over time e.g. droughts Amount and severity of hazards; risks Ability to phase for increasing demands/peaks License/regulatory assurances Proximity/convenience to system needs Operational footprint e.g. effort/management Relative cost performance of Solution A to B Cash flow and rates considerations Desirability Public perception of water quality Stakeholder conflicts 16

17 Solution Sets: Source Evaluation Apply criteria to sources to prioritize supply strategy Solution sets make best use of conservation, Outdoor optimization Water and source supply Restrictions Leak Kits Rainny Wells Stave Lake Fraser River Other Sources Miracle Valley Expand Norrish 17

18 Presentation Overview Water System Review Water Demand Planning Water Conservation Choices Supply Source Needs Next Steps Sources and Infrastructure Water Issues Population and Water Use Conservation Policy Options Supply Needs to 2041 New Source Criteria 18

19 Schedule Engage with public + stakeholders Starting May to end of the phase Evaluate and report on sources and conservation programs Return to JSSC July 13 th Short list of priority solution sets Allow for further project activities leading into fall decisions and direction JSSC September 14 th JSSC November 9 th Engagement Focus Areas Core questions related to Concerns regarding system elements and services Preferences and ideas for conservation Ideas and considerations for solution sets Planned Events Taste of Abbotsford May 28 th Old Car Sunday Mission June 18 th (Tentative) Additional Events at Mission Recreation Centre Date TBD Canada Day Abbotsford July 1 st Additional water conservation events through the summer both communities Website Presence 19

20 Questions and Further Discussion 20