Do we actually need an energy transformation? Prof. Dr. Anders Levermann

Transcription

1 Do we actually need an energy transformation? Prof. Dr. Anders Levermann

2 In Physics We Trust Collapse of Larsen Ice Shelf in Antarctica John Mercer (Nature, 1978): If the global consumption of fossil fuels continues to grow at its present rate, atmospheric CO 2 content will double in about 50 years years. The computed temperature rise at lat 80S could start rapid deglaciation of West Antarctica, leading to a 5m rise in sea level.

3 West Antarctic Ice Sheet has tipped. Rignot et al., GRL, Joughin et al., Science, Favier et al. Nature CC, 2014.

4 West Antarctica Destabilization of Amundsen Sea yields full discharge Feldmann & Levermann, PNAS, 2015.

5 Why does this happen

6 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Today EPICA Dome C ice core.

7 Earth is warming 1.0 ± 0.1 o C temperature increase since 1900 Temperature increase (C) Year

8 2016 a Holy Shit Moment on Twitter Temperature increase (ºC) Jan Dec

9 The Future

10 Temperature of the 21 st century 2-degrees limit IPCC AR5, Sep

11 Carbon emission are rising World Meteorological Organization, Global Carbon Project, 2014.

12 Current Sea-Level Projection Sea-level rise (m) Make your own projections: matthiasmengel/sealevel Year Mengel, Levermann, et al, PNAS, 2016.

13 What happens without energy transformation?

14 West Antarctica Destabilization of Amundsen Sea yields full discharge Feldmann & Levermann, PNAS, 2015.

15 Antarctica is huge

16 Can we avoid the next tipping in Antarctica? Mengel & Levermann, Nature Climate Change, East Antarctica West Antarctica

17 Sea-level commitment 2.3m per degree of warming Sea-level (m) Levermann, et al. PNAS (2013). IPCC AR5, Sep

18 Cultural heritage Marzeion & Levermann, 2014.

19 US Cities under water Strauss, Skulp, Levermann, PNAS (2015). unmitigated warming Strong carbon cuts

20 Loss of coastal cities Strauss, Skulp, Levermann, PNAS (2015). 2 Grad 4 Grad Sydney Opera Wall Street 2 Grad 4 Grad

21 Loss of coastal cities Clark et al. Nature Climate Change, 2016.

22 Ice-free planet Winkelmann, Levermann, et al, Science Advances, 2015.

23 Oceans acidify IPCC AR5, Sep

24 Coral reefs are dying 2 C of warming is already too much Abundance of bleaching events Ratio of threatened coral reefs Frieler et al. Nature Clim. Ch. (2012).

25 Arctic sea ice is melting rapidly

26 Arctic sea ice th September

27 Arctic sea ice th September

28 Future of the North Pole IPCC AR5, Sep

29 Rainfall changes Boreal Winter Boreal Summer 5 o C World: Dry regions (Subtropics) get drier Wet regions (Eurasia) get wetter IPCC, AR5 (2013)

30 Weather extremes

31 Weather extremes More heat waves Business as usual Temperature change Australian wildfire 2013 More droughts & wildfires Russian heat wave 2010

32 Heat waves in Europe

33 Russian heat wave 2010 Heat waves American heat wave 2012 European heat wave 2003 Long-lasting blockage Climate models can compute some heat waves but not all Temperature change Business as usual Year

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35 A truly global problem zeean the economic flow database

36 The Is Jet-Stream the Jetstream changing? Source: NASA

37 Eurasian summer 2010 Pakistan flood

38 Balkan flood Wavy Jetstream 7 th 22 nd of May 2014 May 2014 Wind speed [m/s] Stadtherr et al (in review)

39 Physical reasoning and observed correlation Intensification of tropical storms

40 Hurricane Sandy, 2012

41 Paris Climate Accord 1. Keep global temperature increase well below 2 degrees. 2. Stablize warming at 1.5 degrees or lower on the long term. 3. Net-Zero greenhouse gas emissions during the second half of the century 4. Nationally Determined Contributions will be reviewed every 5 years and can only be enhanced.

42 Remaining carbon budget Remaining CO 2 -emissions: Up to 2º C: 1000 Gt CO 2 Up to 1.5º C: 550 Gt CO 2 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) bis 2030: 780 Gt CO 2 Meinshausen et al., Nature Climate Change, 2015.

43 Is it too late? Not physically, no but economically? Economic projection vs Reality: Installed Photovoltaik Power We are not very good at predicting economic revolutions.

44 There will be an energy transformation. He who adapts fastest will win. Thank you! Prof. Dr. Anders Levermann Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany Columbia University, New York, USA.