NICKEL INDUSTRY SUPPLY What lies ahead?

Transcription

1 INSG 2007 Lisboa 2nd 3rd October 2007 NICKEL INDUSTRY SUPPLY What lies ahead? Nickel drawing: Kaianders Sempler. Magnus Ericsson & Martin Jansson

2 SPECIAL PROPERTIES OF METALS High strength Affordable cost Conduct heat and electricity Hygenic Beautiful Undestructable Modified from: T. Graedel, Yale University.

3 NICKEL PRICE

4 NICKEL PRICE USD/t deflated 2006: USD/t Source: Phillip Crowson.

5 OUTLINE

6 METAL PRICE INDEX Forecasts Previous Source: RMG. Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12

7 OUTLINE Past Present Future

8 RAW MATERIALS GROUP Raw Materials Data Metals/Coal Strategy development Mineral policy Investment promotion Cooperation Bloomsbury Mineral Economics

9 RAW MATERIALS GROUP Mining companies Financial institutions Governments Mining equipment producers International organisations UNCTAD iron ore trust fund

10 Molybdenum drawing: Kaianders Sempler. PAST

11 NICKEL MINING Europe 24% Africa 4% Oceania 21% Europe 23% Africa 4% Oceania 22% Latin America 8% Asia 4% North America (Canada) 39% Latin America 16% Asia 18% North America (Canada) 17% Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2007.

12 CONCENTRATION NICKEL from 1975 % of world nickel mining Largest Three largest 10 largest 25 largest Note: Western world 1975 and 1985, other years total world. Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2007.

13 PAST Little change in concentration. Slow geographical shifts.

14 PRESENT Control and concentration Vertical integration Vanadium drawing: Kaianders Sempler.

15 CONCENTRATION BY METAL % of total world Largest 3 largest 10 largest 10 0 Gold Zinc Tin Nickel Iron ore Copper Platinum Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2007.

16 M & A Billion USD : 3 Q Total Nickel Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2007.

17 NICKEL CONTROL 2007 Controlling company Rank copper Country Share of Share Mine Refin mine production refinery production (%) (%) Norilsk 1 1 Russia CVRD 2 2 Brazil BHP Billiton 3 4 Austr Xstrata/Glencore 4 3 Switzerl Pt Antam 5 15 Indonesia Jinchuan 6 5 China Cuba Niquel 7 6 Cuba Anglo American 8 9 UK Eramet 9 8 France Votorantim Brazil Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2007.

18 VERTICAL INTEGRATION Top 20 miners control of refining Top 20 refiners control of mining Cu Ni Zn Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm Cu Ni Zn

19 NICKEL STATE CONTROL % MEC CPE Total Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2007.

20 PRESENT Slow concentration process more necessary to meet societal demands? Vertical integration increase. Backwards and forwards. More state intervention.

21 FUTURE Location of new projects. Nickel investments. Mine sizes. Grades in resources. Tungsten drawing: Kaianders Sempler.

22 NICKEL PROJECTS 2007 By value By number Oceania 23% Latin America 37% Oceania 30% Latin America 16% Asia 20% Europe 5% North America 14% Asia 18% Europe 7% Africa 7% North America 22% Africa 1% Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2007.

23 TREND METAL INVESTMENT FLOWS YEAR 2006 NEW PROJECTS TOTAL AMOUNT 38 BILLION USD 21% 25% Copper Gold Nickel 16% 18% 20% Iron ore Others Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2007.

24 NICKEL MINE ORE GRADES 2006 Number of mines < 0,5 0, >3 Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm Ni grade in resource %

25 NICKEL MINE ORE GRADES 2006 Contained nickel in resources (Mtx10-2 ) < 0,5 0, >3 Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm Ni grade in resource %

26 NICKEL MINES 1996/2006 Contained Ni (kt) < 10 ' > 75 Ni production/year (kt) Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2007.

27 NICKEL MINES 1996/2006 Number of Mines < 10 ' >75 Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm Ni prod/year (kt)

28 NICKEL GRADE IN RESOURCES I % Ni Operating mines 0.66 % Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2007.

29 NICKEL GRADE IN RESOURCES II % Ni Projects 0.67 % Source: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm 2007.

30 SUMMARY Locus of control moving to developing countries - as does production. More integration of production. Bigger mines, constant grades. More consolidation to meet societal demands. More R&D necessary. State intervention coming. Transparency decreasing?

31 THANK YOU! Magnus Ericsson Tel: Fax: Manganese drawing: Kaianders Sempler.