OCEAN ACIDIFICATION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOAL 14: A GOAL BUT NO TARGET?

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1 OCEAN ACIDIFICATION AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOAL 14: A GOAL BUT NO TARGET? KAREN N. SCOTT UNIVERSITY OF CANTERBURY, NEW ZEALAND 2015 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOAL 14 Minimize and address the impacts of ocean acidification, including through enhanced scientific cooperation at all levels. 1

2 OBJECTIVES OF PAPER Outline the threat and potential implications of ocean acidification; Highlight recent initiatives to address ocean acidification; Map the regime complex which applies to ocean acidification; Conclude with selected recommendations for the future. OCEAN ACIDIFICATION: THE SCIENCE BIT Rising concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are resulting in increased uptake of that gas by the ocean. There is no doubt that the ocean is absorbing more and more of it: about 26 per cent of the increasing emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide is absorbed by the ocean, where it reacts with seawater to form carbonic acid. The resulting acidification of the ocean is occurring at different rates around the seas, but is generally decreasing the levels of calcium carbonate dissolved in seawater, thus lowering the availability of carbonate ions, which are needed for the formation by marine species of shells and skeletons. In some areas, this could affect species that are important for capture fisheries. First Global Integrated Assessment (2016) p. 11 Ocean acidity has been stable over the last 800,000 years ranging from 8.2 to 8.3 ph. From 1800 to date it has decreased to 8.1, which equates to an increase in acidity of about 30 %. Some predictions suggest ph may decrease to 7.9 or even 7.7 by 2100 a double or tripling of ocean acidity. 2

3 OCEAN ACIDIFICATION: POTENTIAL IMPACTS ph varies on a regional and seasonal basis but the solubility of CO 2 increases in colder waters so it is predicted that the Arctic and Antarctic will be the first to experience ocean acidification. Polar species are often slow growing and long-lived so may find it particularly challenging to adapt. OCEAN ACIDIFICATION: POTENTIAL IMPACTS Decreased saturation of calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) impeding the ability of calcifying organisms (such as mussels and krill) to construct shells and skeletons; Similar impacts on tropical and deep water coral reefs; may also contribute to coral bleaching. 3

4 OCEAN ACIDIFICATION: POTENTIAL IMPACTS The impact on fish is under-researched but potential implications include increased inability to distinguish between predator and non-predator odours, damage to fish larvae, changes in behaviour (becoming less predator adverse), growth changes in plankton. OCEAN ACIDIFICATION: POTENTIAL IMPACTS It is estimated that ocean acidification has already cost the oyster industry in the US Pacific northwest nearly US$110 million with implications for over 3000 jobs. A number of attempts have been made to estimate the economic impact of ocean acidification, particularly with respect to reefs taking into consideration fisheries, building materials, coastal protection and tourism. More fundamentally, ocean acidification may have implications for islands that are made of reefs. It is also predicted that ocean acidification will reduce the capacity of the ocean to sequester CO 2. 4

5 OCEAN ACIDIFICATION: AN UNCERTAIN SCIENCE Whilst it is certain that ocean ph is changing, it is far from certain as to the implications for this change. Scientific studies are laboratory or short-term mescocosm-based with a few focusing on natural areas of low ph. Many experiments use very high levels of CO 2, beyond those predicted for the short to medium term. Research to date is mixed with experiments demonstrating negative responses to changes in ph demonstrated but others with no or even with positive responses. Very little is known about the adaptability of species over the medium term. Some research has suggested that a lower ph increases the capacity of seagrass to sequester CO 2 or that it could inhibit the release of nitrous oxide a greenhouse gas, which is 300 times more potent than CO 2. RECENT INTERNATIONAL POLICY FOCUS ON OCEAN ACIDIFICATION United Nations General Assembly Sustainable Development Goal 14.3 UNGA Resolution 66/288 The Future We Want (2012) para. 166 UNGA Resolutions on Oceans and the Law of the Sea A regular item since In UNGA Res 71/257 (2016) ocean acidification was noted as an issue of serious concern and global and regional action to address ocean acidification were urged (preamble and paras. 186, 187 and 189). Report of the Secretary General of the United Nations on Oceans and the Law of the Sea (2017) A/72/70 focus on ocean acidification and climate change. 14 th Report of the work of the United Nations Open-ended Informal Consultative Process on Oceans and the Law of the Sea (2013) the topic was ocean acidification. Note that the topic for 2017 will be the oceans and climate change. 5

6 RECENT INTERNATIONAL POLICY FOCUS ON OCEAN ACIDIFICATION 1992 Convention on Biological Diversity 2010 Aichi Biodiversity Target 10 By 2015, the multiple anthropogenic pressures on coral reefs, and other vulnerable ecosystems impacted by climate change or ocean acidification are minimized, so as to maintain their integrity and functioning. Two synthesis reports commissioned on ocean acidification (2010 and 2014) Regularly referenced in decisions on Ocean and Coastal Biodiversity, see e.g. Decision XII/23 (2014) OSPAR Convention Reports on ocean acidification produced in 2006 and Guidelines for Monitoring Chemical Aspects of Ocean Acidification Kiruna Declaration of the Eighth Ministerial Meeting of the Arctic Council Welcome the Arctic Ocean Acidification assessment, approve its recommendations, note with concern the potential impacts of acidification on marine life and people that are dependent on healthy marine ecosystems, recognize that carbon dioxide emission reductions are the only effective way to mitigate ocean acidification, and request the Arctic States to continue to take action on mitigation and adaptation and to monitor and assess the state of Arctic Ocean acidification. REGIME COMPLEX A regime complex is a loosely coupled set of specific regimes which pertain to the same issue domain or spatially defined area and interact with one another in the sense that the operation of each affects the performance of the others. O.R. Young, Building an International Regime Complex for the Arctic: Current Status and Next Steps 2 (2014) The Polar Journal 391, 394. Linkage and institutional interaction operate on a number of levels and may arise as a mere consequence of ecological, sociological or functional interdependence or as a result of a deliberate governance strategy. Karen N. Scott, International Environmental Governance: Managing Fragmentation through Institutional Connection 12 (2011) Melbourne Journal of International Law, 177, 184 Institutional interaction and the idea of linkage emerged as a response to the problem of managing global dilemmas in an anarchic world that is governed by weak and fragmented international institutions Oren Perez, Multiple Regimes, Issue Linkage and International Cooperation: Exploring the Role of the WTO (2005) 26 University of Pennsylvania Journal of International Economic Law 735,

7 OCEAN ACIDIFICATION: THE REGIME COMPLEX Private/ Expert Initiatives Future BBNJ Instrument? 1992 UNFCCC 1979 LRTAP & 1999 Protocol on Acidification 1973/79 MARPOL, Annex VI Precautionary principle Ocean Acidification 1992 CBD 1995 FSA and RFMOs 1982 UNCLOS Regional Seas regimes 1995 GPA 1972 London Convention & Protocol OCEAN ACIDIFICATION: THE OBLIGATION COMPLEX Reduce CO 2 emissions Geoengineering? Reduce sulfur emissions Factor into fisheries management Ocean Acidification Reduce emissions from ships Incorporate into coastal/ marine spatial planning Manage run off from land Enhance ecosystem resilience e.g. MPAs Manage other ecosystem pressures 7

8 OCEAN ACIDIFICATION: IN BETWEEN THE OCEANS AND THE ATMOSPHERE 1992 UNFCCC The objective prevention of dangerous interference in the climate system is broad enough to cover the oceans but climate change and it associated obligations focus on the atmosphere. This is reinforced by the basket approach to greenhouse gases under the Kyoto Protocol and the more general neglect of the oceans under Kyoto and, more recently the 2015 Paris Agreement. Ocean Acidification 1982 UNCLOS States must generally protect the environment (Article 192) and take action to address all sources of pollution (Article 194). Articles 207 and 212 relate to landbased and atmospheric pollution but rely on external (e.g. UNFCCC) regimes or soft instruments (such as the GPA). OCEAN ACIDIFICATION: OTHER RELEVANT REGIMES 1973/78 MARPOL Annex VI Regulates vessel emissions including Sulphur oxides (So x ) Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone Objective to establish critical acidification loads in Europe and North America 1996 London Protocol Regulates CO 2 sequestration (sub-seabed only is permitted) and ocean fertilization (amendment not yet in force) GPA Soft law; targets in respect of land-based pollutants including nutrients which can acerbate local ph levels. 8

9 OCEAN ACIDIFICATION: OTHER RELEVANT REGIMES 1992 Convention on Biological Diversity Article 6 parties must develop plans and programmes for the sustainable use of biodiversity. Article 7 identify processes and activities likely to have an adverse impact on biodiversity OSPAR and Helsinki Conventions (for the North-east Atlantic and Baltic respectively) require climate change and ocean acidification to be considered as part of MPA planning Barcelona Convention and 2008 Protocol on ICZM require climate change to be considered as part of ICZM. OCEAN ACIDIFICATION: OTHER INITIATIVES 2008 International Oceanographic Council (IOC) Monaco Statement on Ocean Acidification Recommends emissions reductions IAP Statement of Ocean Acidification (Global Network of National Academies) Recommends reduction in CO 2 emissions of 50 percent (below 1990 levels) by Ocean Acidification International Coordination Centre Established in 2012; supports capacity building. Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network Global Coral Reef Partnership 9

10 GOALS BUT NO TARGETS: DOES THIS MATTER? Article 2, 2015 Paris Agreement Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Annex I states agreed to emissions targets for greenhouse gases under the Kyoto Protocol. States under the Paris Agreement have agreed to nationally determined contributions (NDC) under Article 4. E.g. New Zealand has agreed to reduce GHGs emissions 30 % below 2005 levels by GOALS BUT NO TARGETS: DOES THIS MATTER? With no target or deadline for action ocean acidification appears to be less important than climate change. Target for reduction in CO 2 emissions. Adopted by UNFCCC, perhaps in conjunction with UNGA. A target, even an imperfect target, is symbolic. It demonstrates the need for action, provides an incentive, a focal point around which collective action may coalesce. Target to stabilise global ph change in the oceans. Adopted by UNGA. This would be a more challenging target owing to significant regional and seasonal variation in ocean ph. 10

11 ADDITIONAL MEASURES TO ADDRESS OCEAN ACIDIFICATION Require states to reduce as far as possible local contributions to ph change such as nutrients through land run-off. Expressly consider ocean acidification as part of environmental impact assessment, strategic assessment processes and marine spatial planning. Take action in respect of other risks to vulnerable ecosystems such as coral reefs to minimise pressure on ecosystems as far as possible. Support the resilience of vulnerable ecosystems through conservation measures such as MPA designation. Expressly consider ocean acidification as part of fisheries management. CONCLUDING REMARKS How do we manage the regime complex? How do we leverage existing instruments and institutions and link or otherwise connect regimes and initiatives? One option is a UNGA resolution specifically on oceans and climate change setting out targets, priorities and principles and providing a framework for action at the global and regional level. 11