UPDATE AND DISCUSSION

Transcription

1 UPDATE AND DISCUSSION Agenda Item K.2.b Supplemental NWFSC and SWFSC Presentation November 2012

2 Objectives Provide a brief update on the state of the California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (CCIEA) What are we doing (high level)? How we are doing it Examples of products CCIEA Next Steps Engagement with PFMC (Workshop)

3 What do we know about the ecosystem? What do we want from the ecosystem? Key Questions Encompassed by PFMC Fishery Ecosystem Plan CC IEA IEA as a Tool to Assist Council

4 2009 CCIEA Planning Begins 2010 Build IEA science toolkit Indicator framework Risk assessment framework Analytical tools Ecosystem models Improved fishery models using environmental covariates 1 st Generation CCIEA Complete 2011 Expand engagement with PFMC, NMSP, NOAA OR&R, WCGA, Canada EPDT Nov, 2011 Discussion document nd Generation CCIEA Complete

5 2010 IEA 1.0 Limited Breadth Ecological Integrity Salmon (California) Groundfish Green Sturgeon Habitat 2012 IEA 2.0 Expanded Breadth Ecological Integrity Protected Species mammals, birds, Salmon (Washington, Oregon and California) Fisheries Groundfish, CPS Human Communities

6 2010 IEA 1.0 Peer-review via journal articles 2012 IEA 2.0 Large-scale technical peerreview process with 57 reviews received to date

7 Web-based, Layered Publication

8 Next Steps -- IEA 3.0 Continue to expand and improve Habitat More Human Dimensions HMS More integration, synthesis Reference levels IEA Workshop

9 CCIEA Products used by PFMC Summary of atmospheric and ocean conditions PFMC draft State of the California Current Report Summary of non-fisheries human pressures PFMC EFH Phase 1 report Addendum (forthcoming) Status and trends of major components of the California Current Ecosystem PFMC draft State of the California Current Report Risk assessment of groundfish fisheries on marine mammals Report to PFMC, March 2012, Agenda Item F.3.b

10 CCIEA Products ready for consideration by the PFMC Atlantis end-to-end ecosystem model Impacts of forage-fish fishing on ecosystem structure and function, other fisheries Impacts of new fisheries on existing fisheries, ecosystem structure and function Cumulative impacts of fisheries on ecosystem structure and function Impacts of catch shares on ecosystem structure and function, fisheries landings, revenues Impacts of gear switching, spatial closures on fisheries, revenues, and ecosystem health Climate change impacts on fisheries, ecosystem health Wave energy analyses Potential conflicts between wave energy development, fisheries, and habitats Risk Assessment Risk to fisheries from (non-fisheries) human activities Risk to habitat from fisheries and other human activities Pacific Salmon Analyses Evaluation of the biological and economic consequences of dam removal for salmon Inclusion of prey and habitat covariates into salmon forecast models. Modeling stream temperature and flow characteristics to promote improved habitat and survival.

11 Proposed CCIEA Workshop 2 days winter / early spring 2013 Workshop Objectives Substantive and technical overview of CCIEA Products Determine utility for PFMC Develop TOR for review, etc. Who should be there? Representation from across technical groups Follow-up deeper dive review

12 Workshop Step 1 Broad overview of IEA Sea lion diet/health Population structure Survey abundance Population growth rate Proportion natural spawners Age structure diversity Step 2 Select Focus Area Marine Mammals Diet Habitat use at sea Mortality Events Reproductive performance Spawning escapement Salmon Biodiversity Mean Trophic Level Seabirds Breeding colony counts Ecological Integrity Age structure Coastal pelagic species Zooplankton Scavenger biomass Groundfish # species below thresholds Stock assessments Abundance surveys Step 3 Deeper dive 95% cumulative age Relative biomass Proportion mature

13 Proposed CCIEA Workshop 2 days winter / early spring 2013 Workshop Objectives Substantive and technical overview of CCIEA Products Determine utility for PFMC Develop TOR for review, etc. Who should be there? Representation across technical groups Follow-up deeper dive review

14 Thank you Question and Answer

15 Is the ecosystem healthy? ENGAGEMENT INDICATORS AND REFERENCE POINTS How vulnerable is the Ecosystem to human uses and natural perturbations? RISK ANALYSIS Assess the vulnerability of biophysical attributes to current and future impacts Assess the cumulative effect of overlapping activities and impacts Assess the likely impacts of climate change Now what do we do? SCENARIO ANALYSIS Identify possible alternative futures Evaluate the likely tradeoffs associated with management alternatives

16 Is the ecosystem healthy? ENGAGEMENT IEA results presented in EPDT Draft State of the California Current Ecosystem Report INDICATORS AND REFERENCE POINTS Reference Points Discussion topic

17 Workshop Step 2 Identify Subcomponent of IEA of Interest to PFMC Biodiversity Mean Trophic Level Ecological Integrity Zooplankton Scavenger biomass Groundfish # species below thresholds 95% cumulative age Relative biomass Proportion mature

18 Workshop Step 3 Go Even Deeper Into the IEA Groundfish # species below thresholds 95% cumulative age Relative biomass Proportion mature