OECD/NEA Study on the Economics and Market of Small Modular Reactors

Transcription

1 OECD/NEA Study on the Economics and Market of Small Modular Reactors INPRO Dialogue Forum on Global Nuclear Energy Sustainability: Licensing and Safety Issues for Small- and Medium-sized reactors (SMRs) 29 July 2 August 2013 IAEA Headquarters, Vienna Vienna International Centre, IAEA Board Room A Alexey Lokhov, Ron Cameron, Vladislav Sozoniuk OECD Nuclear Energy Agency Nuclear Development Division

2 Introduction The development of small nuclear reactors (SMRs) has been in the focus of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) studies since 1990s: (1991) Small and Medium Reactors o Volume I. Status and Prospects o Volume II. Technical Supplement (2011) Current Status, Technical Feasibility and Economics Of Small Nuclear Reactors o Brief characterization of SMR available for commercial deployment o Characterization of advanced SMR designs o Small and modular reactors ( mini reactors) and their attributes o Factors affecting the competitiveness of the SMR o Assessment of the deployment potential of the various proposed SMR designs o Safety designs of advanced SMR o Licensing issues 2

3 Ongoing SMR projects Definitions: SMR = small (<300 MW e ) and medium ( MW e ) sized reactors SMR = small (<300 MW e ) modular reactors SMR Technology Electric output, MW Plant configuration Licensing status KLT-40S Russia SMART Republic of Korea mpower, USA Westinghouse SMR, USA NuScale USA Holtec HI-SMUR, SMR-160 USA SVBR-100 Russia Gen4 (Hyperion) Power Module USA VBER-300 Russia CAREM-25 Argentina PWR 2 35 Twin unit barge- mounted PWR 90 Single module Licensed PWR N 125 Multi-module PWR 225 Licensed Under construction, expected in 2016 Licensing pre-application First winner of the US DOE 452 M$ grant Application for design certification to NRC by the end of 2013 PWR N 45 Multi-module Licensing pre-application PWR 140 Application for design certification to NRC Pb-Bi cooled fast reactor Pb-Bi cooled fast reactor PWR 1 or N 100 Single module or multi-module Licensing in progress N 25 Single module or multi-module Application for design certification to NRC Single module or twin unit, land based or barge mounted PWR 27 Single module Licensing in progress n/a 3

4 Key features of the SMRs Economy of scale vs. Economy of serial production The absolute cost of one reactor is smaller than for large reactors i.e. expected to be easier to finance Modular construction Tasks that used to be performed in sequence are done in parallel with factory-built modules o Already implemented in some large reactors (e.g. AP1000) o But in case of SMR the module could be the entire reactor system Redundancy of production unit: o Better flexibility (outages) Potential co-generation (water desalination, heat production) o The power output of SMRs suits well existing heat and water distribution network o Multiple modules redundancy guarantee of continued supply Decommissioning: Potentially smaller costs if modules are replaceable and factory disassembled/decommissioned 4

5 SMR deployment strategies SMRs target two general classes of applications: Traditional deployment and direct competition for electricity production with large NPP and other sources of power. Relatively small upfront capital investment for one unit of a SMR provides more flexibility in staging capacity increases, resulting in smaller financial risks. Niche applications in remote or isolated areas where large generating capacities are not needed, the electrical grids are poorly developed or absent, and where the nonelectrical products (heat or desalinated water) are as important as the electricity. 5

6 Coal replacement potential in the USA 2012 Union of Concerned Scientists 6

7 Based on Order #216-e/2 of the Russian Federal Tariff Service (22 September 2009): Niche application in remote areas Map of electricity tariffs (in USD cents per kwh) in Russia in 2010 Estimated SMR LCOE:9-13 /kwh Land-based and barge-mounted SMR plants with LCOE substantially higher compared to alternative sources could still be competitive in these niche markets if they meet certain technical and infrastructure requirements, defined by the specific climate, siting and transportation conditions. 7

8 SMR economics In regulated electricity markets with loan guarantees and with more or less strictly regulated prices the key parameter is Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) LCOE= t Investment t +O&M t +Fuel t +Carbon t +Decommissioning t 1+r t Electricity t t 1+r t In liberalised electricity markets, the main parameters are: Predictability and level of electricity prices Risks Full cost of electricity with SMR has similar structure to large reactor: Cost of establishment of a nuclear programme (for newcomers) Cost of licensing Construction cost O&M and fuel cost Provisions for decommissioning and waste management Taxes and levies Grid and backup costs (transport, reserve capacity, etc.) 8

9 LCOE estimates for PWR SMR LCOE estimates for PWR SMRs using the top-down scaling methodology and numerical estimates of various factors affecting the competitiveness of the SMR: Capital costs for relevant NPP with large reactor (USD per kwe) Economy of Scale (scaling law): Cost(P 1 )=Cost(P 0 )(P 1 /P 0 ) n P 0,P 1 - power, n - scaling law parameter This study: n= Other factors affecting the competitiveness of SMR: Design simplification This study: 15% reduction Shorter construction period Up to 20% reduction (depends on the interest rate) FOAK effect and multiple units: This study: FOAK +15%, Serial: 10-25% reduction Factory fabrication, learning: Up to 30-40% reduction Output of the calculation: Capital costs for SMR (USD/kWe) Assumptions on the costs of O&M, fuel, and decommissioning O&M +Fuel costs (per MWh) are assumed to be the same for SMRs than for large reactors: O&M costs are expected to be smaller for SMRs (due to design simplification & passive systems) Fuel costs are expected to be larger for SMRs (because of poor fuel utilization) Estimates of LCOE for SMR (USD/MWh) 9

10 N. America Europe Asia Pacific SMR LCOE assessments LCOE estimates for SMRs and alternative sources, at 5% real discount rate The band represents the uncertainty on data and calculations 2 35 MW barge SMR (Russia) ~10000 USD/kWe Wind Gas Coal 90 MW SMR (Korea) Large Nuclear Wind Gas Coal MW SMR (Russia) Large Nuclear 5-12 USD/MBtu ~5000 USD/kWe USD/kWe 7-11 USD/MBtu USD/kWe Wind Gas Coal MW SMR MW SMR Large Nuclear 2-7 USD/MBtu USD/kWe USD/MWh Estimates suggest that SMRs can be economically competitive 10

11 The challenge to enter the market LCOE for SMR might decrease in case of large scale serial production which is very important for proving competitiveness of SMR Large initial order is needed to launch the process. Who can be the first customer? How many SMR designs will be really deployed? Serial production of SMRs Massive SMR deployment Higher SMR competitiveness 11

12 Possible markets for SMRs Applications in remote areas: o To date, only Russia announced its plans to deploy floating NPP, 1 st deployment expected in 2016 On-grid deployment: o In the US SMRs is an alternative for replacement of small old coal power plants that will become uneconomical in the coming years due to stricter environmental regulations. About 27 GWe. This capacity will be replaced with gas-fired, nuclear and renewable power sources, and could lead to several tens or even hundreds of SMR units New nuclear countries: o Countries initiating new nuclear programmes might be interested in starting with a SMR instead of the previously traditional first-step of a research reactor. According to WNA, nuclear power is under serious consideration in about 45 countries which do not currently have it IAEA, 2010: 65 countries without nuclear power plants are expressing interest in, considering, or actively planning for nuclear power. 31 are not currently planning to build reactors, and 17 of those 31 have grids of less than 5 GW The market size could be potentially significant (tens to hundreds of small reactors) For SMR competitiveness serial production is needed. Consolidation of SMR producers? 12

13 New OECD/NEA study on SMRs OECD/NEA is currently conducting a new market study on SMRs: Approach: Data gathering through questionnaires sent to SMR vendors and potential users asking them what their expected markets and requirements might be along with general assessment and SMR economics modelling Example of questions we would like to answer: How many SMRs are needed by the utilities? Where are the markets and now big are they? What are the key barriers to enter the market? What is the minimal number of SMRs to create a sufficient learning curve to overcome economies of scale, which advantage large reactors? Cost data for SMRs and its components The report is expected to be issued in early

14 Conclusions The economics of the SMR strongly rely on large scale serial production in factory conditions, which is the key element for proving competitiveness of SMR. Large initial orders of SMRs are needed to launch the serial production process It is important to know who could be the first customers, and how many SMR designs will be really deployed in the near future. The market size for SMRs could potentially be tens to hundreds of units. If only few SMRs are constructed in the coming decade, one should not exclude consolidation of SMR vendors to increase the market share. The principal challenge for the SMRs is licensing, because of innovative and passive design features, difficulties of modifying the existing regulatory and legal frameworks. Other important challenges are siting, multiple units/modules on the same site, the general public acceptability of new nuclear development, etc. If advanced SMRs are successfully licensed and their economic competitiveness is demonstrated, this technology may lead to a new renaissance of the nuclear industry. 14