Soil monitoring: Measuring the pulse of the planet!

Transcription

1 Soil monitoring: Measuring the pulse of the planet! Dr David A. Robinson NERC KE Fellow:Transforming the economic and social visibility of soils Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Bangor, UK

2 Why soils? Soils support food, feed and fibre production Store carbon, nutrients and water Regulate floods, droughts, heatwaves Filter and recycle, water and waste Habitat and genetic resource, e.g. They are vulnerable to pollution, sealing, erosion!

3 Soil has hidden value There are more organisms in a tablespoon of soil than there are humans on the planet SSSA; 25% of global biodiversity is estimated to be in soil 2015 Nobel Prize for Medicine Was awarded for medicine extracted from soil 1952 Dr. Selman Waksman cultured Streptomycin from a soil borne microbe

4 Soil might be helping power your iphone! China controls the global supply of rare earths, a group of minerals critical to the production of hightech products, from cell phones, ipads and televisions to missile defense systems. China has 30% of world supply and controls 90% of production Soil containing rare earth minerals being loaded at port in east China for export to Japan. (Sept photo) Rare earths found in Jamaica's red soil Rare earths. Clockwise from top center: praseodymium, cerium, lanthanum, neodymium, samarium, and gadolinium.

5 Subsidence, hope it s not your house! The Association of British Insurers predicts that subsidence (downward movement of the ground surface) claims will reach 600 million a year by 2050 BGS

6 Heat waves and soil moisture It s estimated that low soil moisture levels during 2003 contributed an extra 2 o C to the European heatwave. Seneviratne, et al. (2006) Nature It s projected to get drier in summer in England and Wales. More than 20,000 people died European Environment Agency

7 EU: Soil Thematic Strategy Economic Valuation 8 threats: 1) erosion: billion 2) organic matter decline: billion 3) compaction: no current estimate possible, 4) salinisation: million 5) landslides: up to 1.2 billion (event dependent) 6) contamination: billion 7) sealing: no current estimate possible (9% of EU covered by infrastructure) 8) biodiversity decline: no current estimate possible In the UK the market price of 1 tonne of soil is ~ 30 At this price the topsoil in a field is worth ~ 60,000, ~10 times the land value Robinson et al., 2011

8 U.N. Intergovernmental Panel Report, 2015 The Intergovernmental Technical Panel on Soils (ITPS) World Soil Resources Report (SWSR) proposes that the following four actions are the greatest priorities to stabilize or reverse over exploitation of global soil resources: 1. Minimize further degradation 2. Stabilize increase soil organic matter 3. Act to stabilize or reduce global N and P fertilizer use 4. Develop monitoring systems to determine the current state and trend of soil condition.

9 Evidence review: Timely! Scope: provide evidence on sustainable soil management for the delivery of three key ecosystem services (ES): food production; water and nutrient cycling; and climate change mitigation. It focuses on soil quality and management on agricultural land and peatlands; and aims to identify evidence gaps and priorities for new research to guide future soils policy. Why monitor? What monitoring do we conduct? What do we need to monitor for?

10 Why do we monitor? Direct Policy impact Early warning Informing the public Generating new scientific understanding Soils with ph above 8.3 are on the rise. Potential structural vulnerability! Informing Defra, e.g. Soil change, stop declines, target restoration, protect our future industry Informing future policy ONS, Natural capital and Ecosystem Accounting D.A. Robinson Countryside Survey

11 Monitoring approaches Monitoring: site based complimenting experiments Monitoring: survey based

12 Rothamsted long-term plots Broadbalk crop nutrient experiments The longest in the world! Lawes and Gilbert carried out analyses of wheat grain and straw for N, P, K, Ca, Mg and Na content on proportionally bulked samples from 10 plots, representing four ten-year periods ( , , and ).

13 NERC CEH Carbon catchments Peat contains an estimated half of UK Carbon

14 Defra Lowland Peat Site network Near-natural Re-wetted Extensive grassland Intensive grassland Arable Extraction site

15 NERC CEH Cosmic-ray soil moisture monitoring network Contributes to weather, climate, and flood/drought modelling and understanding

16 Soil survey monitoring LandIS - includes the National Soil Map (NATMAP), soil series attribute and function values (SOILSERIES), the National Soils Inventory (NSI), the Hydrology of Soil Types (HOST) and other soil data sets Soilscapes (data available from Cranfield University; maps available on MAGIC see below) Muliti-Agency Geographic Information for the Countryside (MAGIC) - the government website providing geographic information on rural, urban, coastal and marine environments across Great Britain Representative Soil Sampling Scheme (RSSS) Countryside Survey (CS) Environment Change Network (ECN) G-BASE Agricultural Land Classification (ALC) Spatial Environmental Information System for Modelling the Impact of Chemicals (SEISMIC) National Soils Inventory (NSI) Hydrology of Soil Types (HOST) Forestry Commission Soil Classification (FCSC) Scotland, has additional Scottish datasets available

17 Countryside Survey and the National Soil Survey Repeated: 1978, 1998, 2007 Worlds longest running statistical change survey Original sampling around 1980 with partial resamplings in the mid-1990s. Good for soil mapping and new phenomena detection State and change detection efficient, statistically robust There s currently no soil monitoring program in England Wales has the Glastir Monitoring and Evaluation Program (GMEP) on an annual cycle

18 2008 exploration of new soil monitoring design 1. Model-based, systematic (grid) sampling 2. Model-based, optimised grid sampling 3. Design-based, stratified random sampling 4. Design-based, cluster sampling Stratified random sampling: Statistically robust and efficient for detecting change Lack of bias, best estimate of mean and variance. Simplicity. Lack of dependence on spatial covariance model assumptions. Flexibility with respect to analysis post-sampling. Grid sampling: Efficient for mapping and detecting new phenomena Greater flexibility for estimating mean changes according to a new reporting class that is not nested within the one used for the initial design Relatively efficient at detecting effects associated with factors not yet known. Most efficient approach should maps of status or change Black et al., 2008

19 Monitoring metrics, 13 Soil Quality Indicators CS CS CS CS CS CS CS now contains soil biology soil bacterial biodiversity mesofauna biodiversity Black et al., 2008

20 Soil Quality Indicators Under represented or missing indicators: Biodiversity / biology Soil physical, structure / hydrology Black et al., 2008

21 Evidence review found Despite significant progress with interpreting indicator values, major scientific and practical issues remain to be addressed. These include the development of indicator reference values for different combinations of land use, soil type and climate; and obtaining a better predictive understanding of the relationships between soil degradation, soil biodiversity and ES delivery (Pulleman et al., 2012). p24 Under represented or missing indicators: Soil biology, biodiversity Soil physical, structure / hydrology

22 Review found: Indicators Further research is needed to better understand: The nature of SOC, particularly the 'light' or 'fresh' fraction and its influence on soil properties under different land uses. The implications of manufactured fertiliser use for C sequestration and storage and the balance between climate change mitigation considerations and food production. The key factors and processes influencing C fluxes in peatlands. The functional ecology of AMF and other soil biota in different agricultural systems and possible synergies and antagonisms with a need for sustainable intensification. The importance of fungal diversity in C and nutrient cycling. How soil biodiversity is related to the provision of multiple ecosystem services. How to value the ES provided by SOC and soil biodiversity. p47 Very little on soil structure

23 What can we expect from monitoring? Understanding Soil Change

24 Soil Organic Carbon Decline in Arable Systems WALES Countryside Survey GB average 4% nice to have 3%, sensible NSI data Webb et al., 2001 The mean SOC in arable/ley cultivation: % % a loss rate equivalent to 0.04 %/yr. While there are clear relationships between SOC and parameters for environmental interaction, evidence for unambiguous breakpoints or trigger values is less clear. Water storage decreases at less than 4% SOC; and where soil depths are 15cm or less, pesticide leaching increases more sharply at SOC levels below ~3%.

25 Potential future challenge? If we adopt a strategy like the 4 per 1000, we will need to monitor soil carbon

26 How is soil ph recovering from air pollution? Mineral soils across GB CS indicates significant increase in soil ph across GB between 1978 and 2007

27 Reduction in SO 2 deposition on land SO 2 deposition areas Soil ph

28 Early Warning: occurrence of soils with ph > 8.3 Soils with ph above 8.3 are vulnerable to structural degradation and collapse reducing crop yields. Lebron et al., 2010 Defra report

29 Opportunity: Citizen Science, Soil Community Tools The evidence suggests that the development of a strategic set of measured SQI s and the potential use of public participation in the measurement of certain suitable SQI s merits further investigation. p site users per day mysoil 45,000 users Crowdsourcing capability

30 Independent vs biased Soil ph at country level, Soil Survey, Countryside Survey, and farmer sampling Arable Grass Citizen and industry science have an important role in monitoring, but can t replace statistically robust, unbiased, professional monitoring

31 GMEP in Wales Grey line, CS GB average Green line, keep above Red line, keep below Unimproved grassland exceeds levels (10-16)?

32 Challenge: Identifying Ecosystem Service Trade-offs We cann t have everything, what should we aim for? NPP Upland peats Intensive arable Maskell et al Journal Of Applied Ecology

33 Challenge: Obtaining evidence of tipping points Recent research showing a drought induced shift in topsoil moisture storage Identification of tipping points is difficult, often requires long-term monitoring data, and in the case of the above example a little luck! Robinson et al., 2016 Sci Reports

34 Challenge: linking monitoring to environmental accounting Scope of environmental assets in the System of Environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA) There are seven individual components of the environment that are considered environmental assets in the Central Framework. They are: 1. mineral and energy resources, 2. land, 3. soil resources, 4. timber resources, 5. aquatic resources, 6. other biological resources, and 7. Water resources. Integrating information on soil resources with other measures of natural capital and economic activity remains one of the least developed areas of the United Nations System of Environmental Economic Accounting (SEEA). Obst, 2015 Nature

35 EU LUCAS Survey using CS approach Every 5 yrs, sparse GB 840 Uses different protocols to GB Doesn t measure above 1000m Has no physical or biological data other than texture. Between 2000 and 2010, intervention measures through the Common Agricultural Policy have reduced the rate of soil loss in the European Union by an average of 9.5% overall, and by 20% for arable lands.

36 Summary: Evidence Review The last country scale soil monitoring was 2007, there is no current scheme Survey approach Soil monitoring should focus on determining the rate of change in soil properties and change in the proportion of soils within particular SQI value ranges, as such changes could have implications for soil functioning and the delivery of key ES. p16 Site based experimental approach It is important that information linking soil properties to soil function is developed in randomised and replicated field experiments. Long term experiments are also crucial for determining the relationship between SQI values, soil management and ES delivery. Soils are now in the front line of global environmental change we need to be able to predict how they will respond to changing climate, vegetation, erosion and pollution. - Schmidt et al. (2011), Nature