IDC 2013 China Top 10 ICT Predictions

Transcription

1 IDC 2013 China Top 10 ICT Predictions Exploring Business Opportunities Brought by the 3rd Platform during Economic Reform and Transformation Lianfeng Wu, AVP IDC China 18 December 2012 Doc#CH U on

2 IDC: 2013: global economy still in agony China s economy after the 18 th CCPC: no big upturn in the short run but benefited for a longer term Reform and transformation will be the main theme of economy and ICT China ICT market under adjustment: growth led by the 3rd platform IDC 2013 China Top 10 ICT Predictions 3 suggestions IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 2

3 2013: global economy still in agony Europe Japan US US Source: EIU, IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 3

4 China: exports decline, depreciation of foreign debts, slower internationalization of RMB, and more overseas M&As 25.0% China Monthly Exports Growth 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% Source: China Customs, IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 4

5 18 th CCPC: no evident influence on the weak growth in the short run There is much to be solved after 30 years of development will see centralized changes and adjustments of the central and provincial governments will be full of formulation of policies and adjustments of government organs (the 27 departments under the State Council will be shrunken to 18). For the new leaders, quick emergence of more problems means larger room in future reforms. IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on Source: NBSC,

6 18 th CCPC: beneficial to China s economy in the long run Rural Land Contract System Reform and Opening- Up in Cities; Market Economy Preliminarily Established WTO Membership World Factory Demographic Dividend / Economic System Dividend Land Reform SOE Reform Finance Reform Tax Reform Income Reform The 18 th CCPC lays a sound basis for the leadership over the coming 10 years. Per capita GDP, consumption power and infrastructure will have much room to grow. The economic and political structure reforms will grow deeper. Technology & Innovation Dividend / Political System Dividend 1. Doubled resident income will benefit the consumer goods industry 2. A faster transformation of the economic development mode will benefit industrial enterprises 3. Social management innovation will benefit government sectors 4. Building a powerful cultural country will benefit industries such as movie, television, animation, game 5. Ecological civilization construction will benefit the environment industry Reform is our biggest dividend. We must and have to move on, without a way back. We should learn well about how to focus interest increment and adjust interest expectations, and meanwhile prudently promote the optimization of stock interest. Li Keqiang IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 6

7 Reform and transformation will be the main theme of economy and ICT Transformation of governments at all levels Transformation of economic structure Transformation of industrial structure Transformation of urbanrural structure Transformation of ecological environment Transformation of foreground and background Transformation of hardware and software Transformation of desktop and mobility Transformation of enterprises and consumption Transformation of offline and online channels IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 7

8 Prediction 1: China s economic reform and transformation will drive the ICT transformation, and China ICT market will continue to grow stably China Economic and ICT Growths (%) Greater central China should be given special attention. SOEs still have great potentials, MNCs will grow stably, and differentiations among POEs will be huge. Medical health, government, finance, retail and public service will be among the fastest-growing industries. GDP IT Telecom Hardware Software Services The ICT market growth will be led by the 3rd platform. IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 8

9 Prediction 1: China s economic reform and transformation will drive the ICT transformation, and China ICT market will continue to grow stably rd Platform Traditional ICT 2013 Growth Rate 19.6% Big data 55.3% Public cloud service 52.2% 80.4% Cloud computing construction 30.0% 330,939.4 US$M SNS market 25.1% 21.6% Tablet 22.8% Smartphone 17.9% 78.4% 3rd platform ICT market 19.7% Traditional ICT market 7.4% 360,458.3 US$M ICT market growth led by the 3rd platform IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 9

10 Prediction 2: Era 3.0 for the building of smart cities driven by a deeper application of IOT and 3rd platform technologies 1.0:Digital city 2.0:Wireless city 3.0:Sensing smart city Purposes Highlighting reform and innovation of cities Highlighting smart industries Stronger government management and better livelihood-related services Strengthening smart infrastructure construction Focusing humanity, environment and life 154: Total number of smart cities 1.1 trillion: Total investment (RMB) Smart City market breakdown by industry application, 2012 (excluding SP network equipment) 8% 5% 8% 3% 2% 1% 4% 5% 12% 21% 31% Government Affairs Management Smart Healthcare Smart Transportation Smart Home Smart Utility Smart Banking Government Decision Making and Commanding Public Service Government Service for Enterprise 10.5 billion: China smart cities-related IT market 2013 (US$) IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 10

11 Cloud investment Cloud service Prediction 3: Enterprise cloud will be integrated and deepened, while personal cloud will grow quickly in China 2012 market 2013 growth 1.2 US$B 52.2% 840 US$M 30% Share Cloud computing will be a platform for new technologies and concepts. Industrial cloud applications tend to be consumerized. International vendors will work with domestic companies to explore China public cloud market. Users with cloud data centers being built will care more about technical details. Private cloud will grow quickly in China. IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 11

12 Prediction 4: Big Data applications enter traditional industries, and risk management and control will be a new growth point of the business analysis market US$M B i g D a t a Te c h n o l o g y China Big Data Market Forecast Va r i e t y 700 Vo l u m e Ve l o c i t y Va l u e In addition to Internet, telecom, finance and government will be the first users of big data applications. Big data analysis will help enterprises with more real-time IT governance, risk and compliance (GRC). Big data cloud service providers will emerge Infrastructure hardware Software Service Source: IDC,Nov IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 12

13 Prediction 5: Mobile applications and social media will be deeply integrated with enterprise solutions China enterprise mobile application market will reach RMB 4.18 billion by 2012, and the 2013 growth will be 46.5%. Social Commerce Collaboration application CRM Digital commerce Enterprise social software Sales CEM Innovation management Sales information Social commerce ERM PPM CPM HCM Recruitment Social platform learning Sales support Marketing Social marketing automation Customer service Community management Call center Feedback from social channels Provider network Social Analysis Social collaboration analysis Social data analysis Text analysis Social relationship analysis IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 13

14 Predication 6: Underlying smart development will be the key to the growth of smart terminals Smart home, smart TV, smartphone, tablet, laptop PC and desktop PC Smart transmission and power consumption management Smart look Smart input Smart network switch Smart power consumption management Remote management Foldable screen 3D laptop Transformer AiO Ultrathin Keyboard Voice Touch IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 14

15 Prediction 7: New telecom market landscape driven by LTE and broadband investing before issuance of the 4G license LTE 中国电信运营商 Spending of LTE China 资本支出 Telecom China 中国光网络设备市场规模 Optical Network Equipment Operators (USD Billion), ) (USD Billion), ( Market USD Billion), ) (USD Billion), IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 15

16 Maturity Prediction 8: From contractual service outsourcing relationship to strategic business partnership Unit service price Service deliverability Serviceability Maturity of partnership between service providers and customers / provider size Policy environment Clearer trend of integrating IT service and business service in the service outsourcing strategy Evolution of partnership between service providers and customers Continued integration of China service outsourcing market based on scale effect IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 16

17 Prediction 9: Integration of mobile enterprise applications and management services will be a hotspot in 2013 Mobile applications and equipment Traditional management service Industry application Integration of mobility and management service General-purpose and customized mobile equipment IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 17

18 Prediction 10: E-commerce will go socialized, and the coordinated development of offline and online channels will be the main theme in With the quick growth of social platforms, e-commerce and social platforms going hand in hand has been a trend in the US market. More cases of such partnership are seen in China, in simple ways such as ads and quick Login. E-commerce providers will mostly open shops on mainstream social platforms. Most enterprises are focused on one channel operation model. Some are vigorously extending to the other one. The coordinated development of online and offline channels will be the main theme and the focus of enterprises. IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 18

19 IDC 2013 China Top 10 ICT Predictions Prediction 1: China s economic reform and transformation will drive the ICT transformation, and China ICT market will continue to grow stably Prediction 2: Era 3.0 for the building of smart cities driven by a deeper application of IOT and 3rd platform technologies Prediction 3: Enterprise cloud will be integrated and deepened, while personal cloud will grow quickly in China Prediction 4: Big Data applications enter traditional industries, and risk management and control will be a new growth point of the business analysis market Prediction 5: Mobile applications and social media will be deeply integrated with enterprise solutions Predication 6: Underlying smart development will be the key to the growth of smart terminals Prediction 7: New telecom market landscape driven by LTE and broadband investing before issuance of the 4G license Prediction 8: From contractual service outsourcing relationship to strategic business partnership Prediction 9: Integration of mobile enterprise applications and management services will be a hotspot in 2013 Prediction 10: E-commerce will go socialized, and the coordinated development of offline and online channels will be the main theme in 2013 IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 19

20 3 suggestions! Reform and transformation are inevitable: Everything is being transformed: economy, government, industry and technology. Reform and transformation under the 3rd platform are particularly necessary. Optimistic about opportunities: It is no good complaining about bad times opportunities are everywhere. To build a new ecosystem and seek new partners will be a good choice. Leverage mobility and social media for better marketing and user experience: In the era of large-scale personalized customization, it is necessary to keep close contact with tier-1 users and make full use of mobile and social channels for successful marketing. IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 20

21 Thanks! Lianfeng Wu Associate Vice President IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 21