Availability Assurance

Transcription

1 Availability Assurance Qatar Reliability & Optimisation Forum 25 June 2009 Hans van de Vorst

2 Agenda Introduction Availability Assurance in Projects System for Production Availability and Resource Consumption (SPARC) demonstration Availability Assurance in Operations Discussion 2

3 Shell Global Solutions centres of excellence Chester Houston Couronne Amsterdam/ The Hague Hamburg Kuala Lumpur with offices throughout the world 3

4 The Availability Assurance Team Martina E Kramer Lukasz Bednara Wiebe Heitman Celesta White David Moore Ernst Krauss Ian Stanley Rajiv Kohli Eric Rossiter Kenneth Lees Roddy Chishick Alexander Verburgt Hari Govinda-Kurup Johannes van de Vorst 4

5 Availability - definitions TOTAL TIME OPERATING NOT OPERATING [OP] OPERABLE NOT OPERABLE AVAILABLE [S/B] UNAVAILABLE PREVENTIVE MAINT. [PM] BREAKDOWN MAINT. [B/D] Availability = OP + S/B OP + S/B + PM + B/D

6 Availability Assurance - What Provides a framework of activities throughout the project development phases aimed at ensuring that availability targets will be met Scope should include all factors that may have a significant impact on production availability: - to enable analysis at overall system level and comparison with overall targets - consistency of assumptions and failure data across different fields and Operating Units is essential - recent SPARC, MAROS, WITNESS, MIRIAM, etc. studies are a convenient starting point 6

7 Availability Assurance - Why - to optimise the design and the economics of the production system, individual project or entire asset - to ensure long-term supply obligations can be met - to identify and rank the reliability bottlenecks in the system - to track actual performance, plant availability is universally accepted as KPI - to manage market exposure Incidental reliability studies and maintenance improvement initiatives do not provide the same level of control as the dynamic Availability Assurance process. 7

8 SPARC Track Record Integrated Up- and Midstream studies Total number of SPARC studies:

9 Iterative process of designing for availability 9

10 The value optimisation cycle Reliability model input SPARC output Opex Equipment reliability & Maintenance Revenues Manning Spares Capex + Project life value Optimisation

11 Reliability Impact (%) Availability Assurance Modelling Process Component Reliability Impact 0.9 Which parts of our process are the least reliable and the impact this is having on plant through-put. Manual entry, auto/real-time, leading Reliability calculations 11

12 Availability Study step by step Step 1 Study Basis 1. Agree study outcome, i.e. availability measures 2. Agree scope 3. Gather PFSs and make RBD from it 4. Collect failure data 5. Describe operational flexibility 6. Collect preventive maintenance scheme 7. Make model Step 2 8. Run model to obtain availability measures 9. Report results and explain Model & Results 12

13 Key Assumptions Design configuration - Integrated P50 Base Case, interfaces with shared facility storage, steam and power, impact of shipping Operating envelopes, capacities - Well boosting, turn up and turn down, steady state Operational flexibility - Bypasses and sparing, gas and liquids flaring, grace periods, slow down and start-up Sources of failure data - Oreda 7.2, IEEE, and OU experience, Benchmarking data, etc. Maintenance - Planned shutdowns, corrective repairs, mobilisation, sparing 13

14 Total Gas (MMscf/d) History match example from an arbitrary project 4500 Actual Production and Model Capacity output for 2005 Error bars correspond to P-10 and P Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 14

15 Impact on Effective Capacity (%) example from an arbitrary project 15

16 Availability Assurance in Operations Identify Steady and State assess Projects Define Identify Steady and State assess Life Define Extension Steady State Abandon Operate Verification Optimisation Requirements and Targets Availability Assurance Delivery Requirements and Targets Availability Assurance, Repair / Replace Delivery Availability, Maintenance, Reliability monitoring, optimisation, project value screening Optimised maintenance, equipment retirement End of Life Strategy Production planning and optimisation Maintenance Reference Plan / Maintenance Optimisation Asset Reference Plan, Major improvements /upgrades 16

17 Life Cycle Availability Assurance OPTIMUM DESIGN CONCEPT Reliability Plant Reliability Information Plant Defect Index Failure rate KPI s and characteristics Production Achievable production availability Production sensitivity analysis Production systems reliability Maintenance Maintenance effectiveness Failure Characteristics Etc Process Control (DCS) SPARC On line and Simulation SPARC model Visual Statistics / results visualisation RCM Interactive data exchange and system updates Extracting data from SAP BP and other databases to SPARC field model REAL TIME DATA SPARES Data Repository, KPI s SAP BP PIMS SAS ARP MRP Design Changes Information Engineering Database Maintenance Execution Information Reporting Scorecard Support Models outside SAP Online Condition monitoring Equipment cost details Life Cycle Cost model RCM/RBI/SIFPro Others 17

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19 Managing Defect Elimination Intelligence Influence the Future Risk (Solution Implementation) manage Knowledge Ability to predict future Failures (Root Causes) Data Information Recognise Conditions & Actions that affect susceptibility to failure (Possible Causes) (Incident Capture, List of Facts) investigate 19

20 Building of Corporate Knowledge (and in support of Asset Management) Scorecards, Decide, Advise,Support Wisdom Senior Management Trends and Exceptions Key Performance and Requirements Indicators Asset / Systems data Conclude Knowledge Summarise Information Catalogue Data Managers, Department Heads Team Leaders / Supervisors Transformation - low level information, Operations level 20

21 Organisational capability development Business Aligned Don't fix it Breakdown only - no active maintenance Breakdown maintenance only Reactive maintenance Recognise need for improvement Fix it before it breaks Planned Preventive maintenance Predictive methods Plan Schedule Cost focus Fix and imporve it Procative Maintenance Elimination of defects Fcous on Value Redesign Improve capabilities Strategic Maintenance Aligned with business vision Integration with suppiers, service providers System performance driven Alliance activated Innocence World Best Rewards: Decaying equipment, Short term savings Excessive efforts and cost Motivation: Budgets only Breakdown Few surprise failures, becoming competitive Avoid failures, reduce cost High Availability, Relaibility, higly competitive Increase uptime Best in class Operator of choice Recognition for optimised cost / activity Growth and optimistation Behaviour: Decaying Responsive Organsied and Disciplined Structured Learning and improvement Inventive and Constructive 21