SMR: Opportunities and Challenges. Dr. Jaejoo HA Head, Division of Nuclear Development, OECD/NEA

Transcription

1 SMR: Opportunities and Challenges Dr. Jaejoo HA Head, Division of Nuclear Development, OECD/NEA SMR 2016, London, 8-9 June 2016

2 Previous OECD/NEA work on SMRs (1991) Small and Medium Reactors o o Volume I. Status and Prospects Volume II. Technical Supplement (2011) Current Status, Technical Feasibility and Economics Of Small Nuclear Reactors o Brief characterization of SMR available for commercial deployment o Characterization of advanced SMR designs o Small and modular reactors and their attributes o Factors affecting the competitiveness of the SMR o Assessment of the deployment potential of the various proposed SMR designs o Safety designs of advanced SMR o Licensing issues (2016) SMRs: Market potential for near-term Deployment

3 Opportunities and Challenges of SMR Combating climate change Safety and Flexible Site Selection Less Financial and Project Risk than LWR Economics still in Question New and Competing Markets Flexible Non Electricity Applications Need New dimension in Licensing Other opportunities and challenged Suitable to Small Industry and Infrastructure Challenges to build Effective Infrastructure in Newcomer or Small Utilizing Existing Transmission System Sustainability of Business Harmonizing with Renewables

4 Combating climate change IEA 2 Degrees C Scenario: Nuclear is Required to Provide the Largest Contribution to Global Electricity in 2050 SMR contribution to Electricity as well as Heat (12%, 380GW, LWR) (17%, 930GW, LWR, SMR, Gen IV)

5 mpower Safety and Flexible Site Selection Small Core, New Technologies Inherently Safer Easy Use of Seismic Isolator, Lower Cooling Water Usage Small Footprint Public Acceptance, Licensing? Loop Type PWR Pressurizer X X X X Core Cann ed Motor Helical Pump Steam Generator Smaller and Safer

6 Less Financial and Project Risk than LWR Short Construction Time and Faster Return SMR: <3 yrs, Large NPP: >5yrs, Fossil: < 2 years Add (and pay for) Capacity as Demand dictates Low Initial Investment Still need Billions, and Still have issues in Liberalized market CfD Who to demonstrate this? Visible Near Term SMART in Saudi Arabia: 3yrs for Pre-Project Eng by 2018 Construction NuScale in INL: Licensing till 2020 Construction Others W, mpower, KLT, Carems and Gen IV types

7 Economics still in Question No real data yet, but only estimation What to compare? LWR? Fossil? Compete Non-nuclear in Small Grid Compete LWR in Large Grid: 10x100 vs 1x1000? Necessary for better Economics Series construction or Large order Factory Tested, Licensing

8 SMR economics: LCOE estimates for PWR SMR LCOE estimates for PWR SMRs using the top-down scaling-law methodology and numerical estimates of various factors affecting the competitiveness of the SMR: Capital costs for relevant NPP with large reactor (USD per kwe) Economy of Scale (scaling law): Cost(P 1 )=Cost(P 0 )(P 1 /P 0 ) n P 0,P 1 - power, n - scaling law parameter This study: n= Other factors affecting the competitiveness of SMR: Design simplification This study: 15% reduction Shorter construction period Up to 20% reduction (depends on the interest rate) FOAK effect and multiple units: This study: FOAK +15%, Serial: 10-25% reduction Factory fabrication, learning: Up to 30-40% reduction Output of the calculation: Capital costs for SMR (USD/kWe) Assumptions on the costs of O&M, fuel, and decommissioning O&M +Fuel costs (per MWh) are assumed to be the same for SMRs than for large reactors: O&M costs are expected to be smaller for SMRs (due to design simplification & passive systems) Fuel costs are expected to be larger for SMRs (because of poor fuel utilization) Estimates of LCOE for SMR (USD/MWh)

9 N. America Europe Asia Pacific LCOE estimates for PWR SMR 2010 data, at 5% discount rate 2 35 MW barge SMR (Russia) Wind Gas Coal 90 MW SMR (Korea) Large Nuclear Wind Gas Coal MW SMR (Russia) Large Nuclear Wind Gas Coal MW SMR MW SMR Large Nuclear ~10000 USD/kWe 2-7 USD/MBtu 5-12 USD/MBtu ~5000 USD/kWe USD/kWe 7-11 USD/MBtu USD/kWe USD/kWe USD/MWh

10 USD /MWh SMR O&M and fuel costs For a MWe SMR, the fuel costs are projected to be ~50% higher than for large reactors because of smaller burnup of the fuel (because the core is small) and all-in/all-out core management strategy See Resource Requirements and Proliferation Risks Associated with Small Modular Reactors, A. Glaser et al. Nuclear Technology Vol. 184 Num 1 pp , October O&M and Fuel costs of PWR SMRs vs. large reactors Data received by the NEA to date Public declarations of some SMR vendors Power, MWe

11 New and Competing Markets Targetting Two Markets Niche applications in remote or isolated areas (New Market to Nuclear energy) Challenges in infrastructure development Direct competition for electricity production with large NPP and other sources of power (Traditional Market) Challenges in competing Economics Total Operating Power Plant Worldwide : 127,000 Units Large(700MW) : 0.5 %, Medium : 3%, Small(<300MW) : 96.5% Fossil Plants : 58.1% (25% are older than 30 years) Ambitious SMR Market?

12 Capcity, MWe Replacement of retiring coal power plants of MWe capacity 1,000 US coal plants: Capacity vs commissioning date Plants between 50 and 300 MWe in capacity and constructed before 1975: Total capacity about 60 GWe Source: US Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-860 Annual Electric Generator Report

13 Flexible Non Electricity Applications Nuclear Co-generation Desalination, District Heating, Process Heat, SMRs are better in issues with flexible mode of operation regarding safety, operational, licensing But, selling commercially both electricity and non-electric products remains a challenge if/where fossil-based alternatives (gas) remain cheap.

14 Application Level of maturity Possible new projects & recent activity District Heating Desalination High temperature process heat Hydrogen production Demonstrated at industrial scale & currently operating (Russia, Switzerland, ) Tested at industrial scale in the past (BN-350) Small small scale applications in NPPs to supply fresh water to plant Demonstrated at industrial scale for low temp. steam applications. R&D HTR and cogeneration Demonstrated at lab scale for thermochemical cycles (HTTR) and HTE Option for new build in Finland or Poland, feasibility studies in France for coupling existing NPPs to DH systems Huge needs in the future but no project in sight NHDD project in Korea clean steel NGNP Alliance & EU s NC2I collaboration Synthetic fuel production NHDD in Korea, on-going R&D (Gen IV) Challenges Differences between electricity & heat markets. Economic assessment. Complexity and scale of investments in water infrastructures. Public acceptance? Long term? Business model (nuclear operator industrial application operator) Licensing, safety, public acceptance, Long term Hydrogen economy? Competition with electric mobility? Nuclear hybrid energy system R&D on low carbon energy systems involving nuclear & variable renewables Assessment of services provided by nuclear (electricity, storage, heat) Economic assessment Long term prospects

15 Need New dimension in Licensing New challenge to specific SMR Multimodule, EPZ, Control Staffing, Security, Licensing fee, Factory inspection, Need more efficient licensing approach in addition to technical matters International collaborative effort? Technology neutral International safety certification Design specific International topical report : MDEP Issues still remain regarding Legal responsibility, Intellectual proprietary, Site-specific requirement, Ownership of decision,..

16 Other Opportunities and Challenges Suitable to Small Industry and Infrastructure May not need big heavy industries, Attractive Easier Localization Challenges to build Effective Infrastructure in Newcomer or Small Market: Regulation, O&M, International Regime, Utilizing Existing Transmission System 154kV Construction Cost: 1M$/km, Transmission Lost: 4.5%/100miles Sustainability of Business Need series of projects all the time to keep supply chain and economics (see NNB, Projected cost by NEA) Market Competition by many SMR designs Some will fade out Harmonizing with Renewables Small power plant is more flexible to grid with large share of renewables Need further study on System Cost

17 Conclusions Is market ready? No. Subject to what we do Do we have preferred licensing scheme? No. Need Improvement Can compete in traditional market? Still question in economics Is electricity market stable and favorable? Still need to assure long term arrangement Is financing issue resolved No, but Easier than before Is there enough supply chain? I think so. If not, can be created Is there player to take the risk of FOAK? Maybe What about site availability and public acceptance? Easier than LWR In conclusion, Economics will be the most important issue. Licensing, Market size, Economics, Demonstrating successful FOAK deployment, Industry involvement, are all interrelated, and chicken and egg talk. Someone have to play leading role.