Research on Carbon Emission of Residents

Transcription

1 Low Carbon Economy, 2017, 8, ISSN One: ISSN Prnt: esearch on Carbon Emsson of esdents Consumpton Based on the Cty of Guangzhou Jngshu Zou Jnan Unversty, Guangzhou, Chna How to cte ths paper: Zou, J.S. (2017) esearch on Carbon Emsson of esdents Consumpton Based on the Cty of Guangzhou. Low Carbon Economy, 8, eceved: March 10, 2017 Accepted: March 28, 2017 Publshed: March 31, 2017 Copyrght 2017 by author and Scentfc esearch Publshng Inc. Ths work s lcensed under the Creatve Commons Attrbuton Internatonal Lcense (CC BY 4.0). Open Access Abstract Carbon doxde can cause greenhouse effects and that have a bad effect on the lves of resdents. Wth the contnuous mprovement of economc development level, the consumpton structure of resdents s also changng, and then the carbon doxde emsson produced by resdents s also changng. Therefore, ths paper used LMDI decomposton method to calculate and analyze the ndrect energy consumpton of Guangzhou resdents carbon emssons, whch creatvely used the LMDI method n the study of urban resdents on the carbon emssons. At the same tme, the research of ths paper s helpful to strengthen the resdents awareness of carbon emsson reducton. Ths paper frst explored the factors that affect the ndrect energy carbon emssons of resdents, then defned the research frame of resdents ndrect energy carbon emsson, and therefore accounted for the ndrect energy consumpton of resdents. Accordng to the demographc characterstcs of the populaton of Guangzhou, the emsson from resdents carbon consumpton s further dvded nto urban consumer carbon emssons and rural consumer carbon emssons. The research results are as follows: The man factor that stmulates the carbon doxde emsson of Guangzhou s resdental ndrect energy consumpton s per capta ncome; the man factor that suppresses the emsson s the ntensty of energy consumpton Populaton sze, per capta ncome, and the resdent consumpton structure have a stmulatng effect on the emssons of carbon doxde from Guangzhou s resdental ndrect energy consumpton of urban and rural resdents. The ntensty of energy consumpton and the emsson ntensty of carbon doxde have a suppressng effect on the emssons of carbon doxde from Guangzhou s resdental ndrect energy consumpton of urban and rural resdents. Urban and rural populaton structure has a stmulatng effect on the emssons of carbon doxde from Guangzhou s resdental ndrect energy consumpton of urban resdents, but has a suppressng effect on rural resdents. DOI: /lce March 31, 2017

2 Keywords esdents Indrect Energy Consumpton Carbon Emssons, Guangzhou Cty, LMDI 1. Introducton Chnese government has set a strategc goal of reducng carbon ntensty by 40% to 45% by Carbon doxde s the most mportant part of greenhouse gases, and human actvtes produce carbon doxde. Clmate warmng wll cause heat wave nvason, changes n the pattern of drought and flood. Envronment we lve and our socal economc development wll have a serous mpact. Chna s carbon emssons research has made rapd progress snce However, Chna s research on carbon emssons s manly focused on reducng carbon emssons n hgh energy-consumng ndustres, gnorng the mpact of consumer spendng on carbon emssons. Wth the rapd development of Chna s economy and the contnuous transformaton of socety, Chna s consumpton patterns contnue to change, the resultng carbon emssons are changng. Therefore, to explore the ssue of consumer carbon emssons, s conducve to strengthenng our understandng of consumer carbon emssons, s conducve to mprovng Chna s carbon emsson reducton polces and decson-makng targeted and operatonal. As to the study of resdents of ndrect lvng energy consumpton growth factors, L Yanme et al. [1] mpled nput-output method research. Feng Lng et al. [2] used the CLA method to quantfy the ndrect energy consumpton and carbon emsson changes of urban resdents n Chna from 1999 to 2007, and analyzed ther potental nfluencng factors. Yao Lang et al. [3] used the LCA method to account for the mpled carbon emssons of resdents n Chna n 1997, 2002 and Zhang Jlu [4] mpled factor decomposton method to analyze Chna s domestc consumpton of ndrect carbon emssons, and analyss of domestc consumpton of carbon emssons factors and the mpact of each factor. Therefore, ths paper uses LMDI decomposton method, the urban level as a research perspectve, wth orgnalty. Consderng that most of the prevous studes have focused on the carbon footprnt of energy consumpton [5], ths paper focuses on the carbon emssons of ndrect energy consumpton. 2. esearch Methods LMDI (logarthmc mean weght dvson ndex method) s the use of tmng varables of the two endponts of the logarthmc average as the decomposton of the weght rato, the weght Equaton s: So (, ) Lxy ( ) ( ) y x y x, f x y = x, f x = y 32

3 ω ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) LV, V V V V V 0 t t 0 t 0 = = 0 t t 0 t 0 LV, V V V V V J. S. Zou Substtuted the weght equaton nto the exponental decomposton formula: t t t t V X 1 X 2 X n = exp 0 ω 0 exp ω exp 0 ω 0 V X1 X2 Xn t t t X1 X2 X n = exp ω X1 X2 Xn t 0 t 0 ( V ) ( t V V V ) V = exp t 0 t 0 0 ( V V ) ( V V ) V t 0 V V t 0 = exp t 0 V V V V t V = 0 V From the above equaton we can see that LMDI s a complete decomposton method, t wll not produce resduals, the data contans zero s no problem. At the same tme, due to the characterstcs of exponental operatons, LMDI s dvded nto multplcaton and decomposton of two, two forms can be converted between each other. 3. Data Source At present, Chna s energy ntensty and carbon ntensty are measured usng energy ntensty and carbon ntensty per unt of GDP. However, ths paper does not smply compare the eght consumer expendture contents wth the energy consumpton and output data of the Chna Energy Statstcal Yearbook, but rather 18 ndustral sectors related to these consumer expendture contents (among the ndustry sectors correspondng to the consumpton expendture contents) are selected from 23 ndustralzed sub-sectors n Guangzhou Statstcal Yearbook (form ) (see Table 1). Guangzhou resdents consumpton expendture projects and producton departments ked. The energy ntensty and carbon ntensty of consumpton expendture are calculated as follows: n E EI = = n I n, n,, CI n n, n, EI represent the energy ntensty of the -th consumer spendng; n represent the number of ndustral parts correspondng to the content of consumer expendture; E n, represent the amount of consumpton energy of the nth ndustry sector correspondng to the consumpton expendture of category ; I n, represent the output value of the nth sector of the -type consumer expendture corresponds to the output value; CI represent the -th consumer spendng should be the amount of carbon emssons n the nth sector. Guangzhou resdents lvng n varous consumer spendng content of ndrect energy carbon emssons are calculated as follows: n C I, 33

4 Table 1. Drectly related to the household consumpton expendture actvtes. Consumer Spendng Content Food Clothes Medcal nsurance Educaton, Culture, Entertanment and Servce Home equpment supples and servces Mscellaneous goods and servces Traffc communcaton Lve Drectly elated Departments Agrcultural and sdee food processng ndustry; Food manufacturng ndustry; Wne, Beverage and refned tea manufacturng ndustry Textle ndustry, Textle and garment, Apparel ndustry; Leather, Fur, Feathers and ther products and footwear ndustry Pharmaceutcal manufacturng ndustry Paper and paper products; eproducton of the prntng and recordng Meda; Culture, Educaton, Industry, Sports and entertanment Wood processng and wood, Bamboo, attan, Brown, Grass products ndustry; Furnture manufacturng ndustry; Metal products ndustry tobacco products ndustry Ol processng, Cokng and nuclear fuel processng ndustry; ubber and plastc products ndustry Electrcty, Heat producton and supply; Water producton and supply ( ), ( ) E = EI X P C = CI X P nd nd E nd represent Guangzhou resdents lvng energy ndrect energy consumpton; C represent Guangzhou Cty resdents lvng ndrect energy consump- nd ton total carbon emssons; X represent Guangzhou Cty resdents per capta expendture of consumer expendture; P represent the populaton of Guangzhou resdents. Ths paper multples the physcal quantty of coal, fuel ol, gasoe and desel n the man energy consumpton of ndustral sub-sectors above the scale of Guangzhou Cty, and multples the carbon doxde emsson factor to obtan the carbon doxde emsson. Electrcty and heat generated by the ndrect CO 2 emssons are stll calculated n accordance wth the method of electrc carbon sharng, that s, the frst year of the country to calculate the thermal power generaton and heatng CO 2 emssons, and then accordng to the varous departments of Guangzhou Cty, the termnal power and heat consumpton The proporton of electrcty and heat consumpton n the country, respectvely, calculated by the varous sectors of electrcty consumpton and thermal consumpton of ndrect CO 2 emssons. 4. Guangzhou esdents Indrect Energy Consumpton Carbon Emssons LMDI Decomposton PQQ E C C = C = P = PF H I J K PPQQ E C represent Guangzhou cty resdents ndrect energy consumpton total CO 2 emssons; P represent the populaton of Guangzhou resdents; represent Guangzhou urban and rural populaton structure, ncludng urban resdents and 34

5 rural resdents; j represent Guangzhou resdents lvng and drnkng tems, ncludng food, clothng, transportaton and communcatons, health care, home applances and servces, educaton, culture and entertanment servces, resdental, mscellaneous goods and servces; P represent populaton of urban resdents or rural resdents n Guangzhou; Q represent consumpton of urban resdents or rural resdents n Guangzhou; Q represent Guangzhou urban resdents or rural resdents of the consumer spendng; E represent Guangzhou cty resdents or rural resdents of the consumpton of energy consumpton; C represent consumpton of CO 2 from consumpton of urban resdents or P rural resdents n Guangzhou; F = represent populaton structure of urban P Q and rural areas n Guangzhou; H = represent per capta consumpton level P Q of urban or rural esdents n Guangzhou; I = represent Guangzhou resdents consumpton structure ; J = represent energy consumpton nten- Q E Q C sty of Guangzhou; K = represent CO 2 Emsson ntensty n Guang- E zhou, representng the Guangzhou energy structure and CO 2 emsson coeffcent. Therefore, the amount of change n CO 2 emssons can be broken down nto: C1, Δ C2, C3, C4, C5, C6, represent the contrbuton of sx factors, such as populaton sze, urban and rural populaton structure, per capta consumpton level, resdents' consumpton structure, energy consumpton ntensty and CO2emsson ntensty. Use and 0 to represent two comparson objects, accordng to the LMDI method, CO 2 emssons change can express: C = C C = C + C + C + C + C + C The above formula 6 varables for dfferent resdents lvng consumpton of CO2specfc formula s as follows: 0 C C P C1 = 0 0 C C P 0 C C F C2 = 0 0 C C F 0 C C H C3 = 0 0 C C H 0 C C I C4 = 0 0 C C I 0 C C J C5 = 0 0 C C J 0 C C K C6 = 0 0 C C K 35

6 represent the populaton type of one year n Guangzhou, ncludng urban resdents and rural resdents of two categores ;j represent Guangzhou resdents lvng and drnkng tems, ncludng food, clothng, transportaton and communcatons, health care, home applances and servces, educaton, cultural and entertanment servces, lvng, mscellaneous goods and servces a total of eght types; and 0 represent two years; C C 0 represent year and year 0 Guangzhou urban resdents or rural resdents j class energy CO 2 emssons, the unt s 10,000 tons of standard coal; P P 0 represent year and year 0 0 Guangzhou resdents populaton, the unt for the mllon people; F, F represent year and year 0 Urban and ural Populaton Structure n Guangzhou; H 0, H represent year and year 0 Guangzhou Urban resdents or 0 rural resdents per capta consumpton level, unt s yuan; I, I represent year and year 0 Guangzhou urban resdents or rural resdents consumpton 0 structure; J, J represent year and year 0 urban resdents or rural resdents n Guangzhou energy consumpton structure strength, n ton/yuan; K, 0 K represent years and year 0 Guangzhou urban resdents or rural resdents energy consumpton ntensty, n kg/kg. For the Chna resdents ndrect energy consumpton of CO 2 emssons trends, the cumulatve effect of tme seres: C = C + C + + C ( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( 1) ( C 2) = ( C 2) + ( C 2) + + ( C 2) ( C 3) = ( C 3) + ( C 3) + + ( C 3) ( C 4) = ( C 4) + ( C 4) + + ( C 4) ( C 5) = ( C 5) + ( C 5) + + ( C 5) ( C ) = ( C ) + ( C ) + + ( C ) 0, 0, r rr, + 1 1, 0, 0, r rr, + 1 1, 0, 0, r rr, + 1 1, 0, 0, r rr, + 1 1, 0, 0, r rr, + 1 1, 6 0, 6 0, r 6 rr, , 4.1. Influencng Factors of Indrect Energy Consumpton of Urban esdents n Guangzhou We should look at ths form from the followng pont of vew: A postve numbers ndcate a stmulatng effect, the bgger the value, the stronger the stmulatng effect. A negatve number ndcates a repressve effect, the bgger the absolute value of the negatve number, the stronger the nhbtory effect. From Table 2 we can see that, on the whole, populaton sze, urban and rural populaton structure, per capta consumpton level, the consumpton structure of resdents of urban resdents n Guangzhou Cty, ndrect energy consumpton of carbon emssons have stmulated; energy consumpton ntensty, CO 2 emsson ntensty On the urban resdents of Guangzhou Cty, ndrect energy consumpton of carbon emssons have an nhbtory effect. Durng the perod from 2002 to 2013, the total amount of CO 2 emssons from ndrect consumpton of urban resdents n Guangzhou ncreased by 71, mllon tons of standard coal % from the per capta consumpton level; 25.03% from the consumer structure; populaton sze and urban and rural popu- 36

7 Table 2. Indrect energy consumpton of urban resdents n Guangzhou from 2002 to Influencng ΔC1 ΔC2 ΔC3 ΔC4 ΔC5 ΔC laton structure contrbuton rate was 19.73% and 5.78%, respectvely. Inhbton of urban resdents n Guangzhou ndrect energy consumpton of CO 2 emssons to reduce the total amount of 129, tons of standard coal. Among the factors that nhbt the ndrect energy consumpton of urban resdents n Guangzhou, 73.89% came from energy consumpton ntensty and 26.11% were derved from CO 2 emsson ntensty. Therefore, the decsve factor n stmulatng the CO 2 consumpton of urban resdents ndrect energy consumpton s the per capta consumpton level. The decsve factor n restranng the ndrect energy consumpton of urban resdents n Guangzhou s energy consumpton ntensty Influencng Factors of Indrect Energy Consumpton n ural esdents of Guangzhou From Table 3 we can see that, on the whole, populaton sze, per capta consumpton level, the consumpton structure of resdents of urban resdents n Guangzhou Cty, ndrect energy consumpton of carbon emssons have stmulated; urban and rural populaton structure, energy consumpton ntensty, CO 2 emsson ntensty On the rural resdents of Guangzhou Cty, ndrect energy consumpton of carbon emssons have an nhbtory effect. Durng the perod from 2002 to 2013, the ndrect energy consumpton of rural resdents n Guangzhou ncreased by 31, mllon tons of standard coal, and 90.79% of the factors that stmulated the ndrect energy consumpton of rural resdents n Guangzhou were from the per capta consumpton level. Sze and the consumpton structure of the resdents were 5.64% and 3.57% respectvely % of the factors contrbutng to the CO 2 consumpton of ndrect energy consumpton n rural areas of Guangzhou were from energy consumpton ntensty; 34.98% were from CO 2 emsson ntensty and 13.31% were from 37

8 Table 3. Indrect energy consumpton of rural resdents n Guangzhou Cty n Influencng ΔC1 ΔC2 ΔC3 ΔC4 ΔC5 ΔC urban and rural populaton structure. Therefore, the decsve factor n stmulatng the CO 2 consumpton of ndrect energy consumpton of rural resdents n Guangzhou s the per capta consumpton level. The decsve factor n restranng the ndrect energy consumpton of rural resdents n Guangzhou s energy consumpton ntensty. Ths s consstent wth the decsve factors that affect the ndrect energy consumpton of urban resdents n Guangzhou Influencng Factors of Indrect energy Consumpton n Guangzhou esdents The comparson of the nfluencng factors of ndrect energy consumpton CO 2 consumpton between urban resdents and rural resdents n Guangzhou, we can see that, on the whole, the populaton sze, the level of per capta consumpton, the consumpton structure of resdents n Guangzhou urban and rural resdents lvng energy consumpton of CO 2 emssons are stmulated, energy consumpton ntensty, CO 2 emsson ntensty of Guangzhou urban and rural resdents ndrect energy consumpton CO 2 emssons Have an nhbtory effect. Urban and rural populaton structure of urban resdents n Guangzhou Cty, ndrect energy consumpton of CO 2 emssons have stmulated the role of urban resdents n Guangzhou Cty, ndrect energy consumpton of CO 2 emssons have an nhbtory effect. Ths s due to the ncrease n the number of rural resdents as a result of the ncreasng populaton of urban resdents, so that the urban and rural populaton structure has an nhbtory effect on CO 2 emssons from rural resdents ndrect energy consumpton. 5. Concluson and Prospect 5.1. Concluson On the whole, the populaton sze, the per capta consumpton level and the consumpton structure of the resdents are stmulatng the ndrect energy con- 38

9 sumpton of urban and rural resdents n Guangzhou. The energy consumpton ntensty and CO 2 emsson ntensty of the urban and rural resdents n Guangzhou are the ndrect energy consumpton Have an nhbtory effect. Urban and rural populaton structure of urban resdents n Guangzhou Cty, ndrect energy consumpton of CO 2 emssons have stmulated the role of urban resdents n Guangzhou Cty, ndrect energy consumpton of CO 2 emssons have an nhbtory effect Prospect In ths paper, the standard that I choose the factors of the ndrect energy consumpton of resdents wll be more allow for data avalablty. I hope that I wll further study the nfluence of other factors on the ndrect energy consumpton of resdents. eferences [1] L, Y.M. and Zhang, l. (2008) Structural Decomposton Analyss of Indrect Lvng Energy Consumpton of Chnese esdents. esource Scence, No. 6, [2] Feng, L., Ln, T. and Zhao, Q.J. (2011) Analyss on Dynamc Characterstcs of Energy Consumpton and Carbon Emsson of Urban esdents. Chnese Populaton, esources and Envronment, No. 5, [3] Yao, L., Lu, J.. and Wang,.S. (2011) A Comparatve Analyss of Carbon Emssons Contaned by Urban and ural esdents n Chna. Chnese Populaton, esources and Envronment, No. 4, [4] Zhang, J.L. (2012) esearch on Chna s CO 2 Emsson from Consumpton Perspectve. Huazhong Unversty of Scence and Technology. [5] Zhu, Q., Peng, X.Z., Lu, Z.M. and Yu, J. (2010) Estmaton and Analyss of Energy Consumpton of Chnese esdents n Chna from 1980 to Journal of Safety and Envronment, No. 2, Submt or recommend next manuscrpt to SCIP and we wll provde best servce for you: Acceptng pre-submsson nqures through Emal, Facebook, LnkedIn, Twtter, etc. A wde selecton of journals (nclusve of 9 subjects, more than 200 journals) Provdng 24-hour hgh-qualty servce User-frendly one submsson system Far and swft peer-revew system Effcent typesettng and proofreadng procedure Dsplay of the result of downloads and vsts, as well as the number of cted artcles Maxmum dssemnaton of your research work Submt your manuscrpt at: Or contact lce@scrp.org 39