Anthropogenic Global Warming isn t a Threat Energy Security is. Prof Philip Hutchinson Cranfield University 28 Oct 2009

Transcription

1 Anthropogenic Global Warming isn t a Threat Energy Security is. Prof Philip Hutchinson Cranfield University 28 Oct 2009

2 The Stern Review: A Dual Critique PART I: THE SCIENCE Robert M. Carter, C. R. de Freitas, Indur M. Goklany, David Holland & Richard S. Lindzen WORLD ECONOMICS Vol. 7 No. 4 October December 2006 We conclude that the Stern Review is biased and alarmist in its reading of the science. In particular, it displays: a failure to acknowledge the scope and scale of the knowledge gaps and uncertainties in climate science credulous acceptance of hypothetical, model-based explanations of the causality of climate phenomena massive overestimation of climate impacts through an implausible population scenario and one-sided treatment of the impacts literature, including reliance on agenda-driven advocacy documents lack of due diligence in evaluating many pivotal research studies despite the scandalous lack of disclosure of data and methods in these studies lack of concern for the defects and inadequacies of the peer review process as a guarantor of quality or truth.

3 The Stern Review: A Dual Critique PART II: ECONOMIC ASPECTS Ian Byatt, Ian Castles, Indur M. Goklany, David Henderson, Nigel Lawson, Ross McKitrick, Julian Morris, Alan Peacock, Colin Robinson and Robert Skidelsky WORLD ECONOMICS Vol. 7 No. 4 October December 2006 Our main conclusions coincide with, and serve to confirm and reinforce, those reached by our scientific colleagues in Part I above. Like them, we would emphasise in particular two interrelated features of the Stern Review: it greatly understates the extent of uncertainty as to possible developments, in highly complex systems that are not well understood, over a period of two centuries or more its treatment of sources and evidence is persistently selective and biased. These twin features have combined to make the Review a vehicle for speculative alarmism.

4 The Stern Review: A Dual Critique PART II: ECONOMIC ASPECTS Ian Byatt, Ian Castles, Indur M. Goklany, David Henderson, Nigel Lawson, Ross McKitrick, Julian Morris, Alan Peacock, Colin Robinson and Robert Skidelsky WORLD ECONOMICS Vol. 7 No. 4 October December 2006 We also endorse, from our own analysis, the judgement of our colleagues that the Review: mishandles data gives too little attention to actual observation and evidence, as distinct from the results of model-based exercises takes no account of the failures of due disclosure, and the chronic limitations of peer reviewing, that have been characteristic of work relating to climate change which governments have commissioned and drawn on. As to specifically economic aspects, we have noted among other weaknesses that the Review: systematically overstates projected costs of climate change, partly though by no means wholly as a result of its failure to acknowledge the scope for long-term adaptation to possible global warming underestimates the likely cost including to the world s poor of the drastic global mitigation programme that it calls for proposes worldwide adoption of a specially low rate of interest for discounting the costs and benefits of mitigation, on the basis of inadequate analysis and without regard for the problems and risks that would result. So far from being an authoritative guide to the economics of climate change, the Review is deeply flawed. It does not provide a basis for informed and responsible policies.

5 Global Temperatures between -70S and 80.5N lat Microwave sounder data from RSS

6 Energy Security Energy security is an issue for those nations which consume more energy than is available from indigenous sources. The affected group now includes the UK as our oil and gas production has declined. A failure to secure adequate energy supplies at an acceptable price prejudices both national and economic security. Energy security is thus a major policy issue.

7 Energy Security A proper understanding and analysis of energy security involves interactions between at least: International politics Defence Economics and economic development Present and future technologies National infrastructure Resource distribution Environmental science and politics

8 Energy Security The issue is not simply driven by an energy shortage, but rather depends on the ability to effectively utilise and control available sources of supply. It is noteworthy that the global supply of solar energy massively exceeds present human consumption.

9 Energy Security In the near to medium term the primary energy source will remain hydrocarbon fuels as the energy infrastructure is centred around it as a source. This is particularly true in the road and air transport sectors. This infrastructure and vehicle fleet have lifetimes of 10 to 20 years and are built around liquid hydrocarbon fuel.

10 EIA Forecasts: World Energy Consumption Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Outlook

11 World Energy Production World energy production in exajoule, distributed by fuel source

12 Energy Intensity Energy Intensity of different economies The graph shows the amount of energy used to produce a US $ of GNP for selected countries. GNP is based on 2004 purchasing power parity and 2000 dollars adjusted for inflation. Source: Energy Information Administration

13 Is there a shortage of energy?

14 Is there a shortage of energy? Years of consumption: world oil reserves compared to the annual production The world s known oil reserves and world oil production

15 Is there a shortage of energy? World gas production, price and years of consumption World coal production, prices and years of consumption

16 World Proven Oil Reserves by Region Regional Share of Proven Oil Reserves Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook Figure 3.9

17 World Natural Gas Reserves Russia 35% Iran 18% Qatar 13%

18 World Coal Reserves

19 World Hydrocarbon Reserves Oil Reserves Concentrated in the Middle East Gas Reserves Concentrated in the Middle East and Russia Coal Reserves are widespread and large

20 Energy Security In the near to medium term hydrocarbon fuels will continue to be the primary energy source as the energy utilisation infrastructure is built around them. As long as markets work a sound Energy Security Policy is to be able to afford the prevailing price, but. The regional concentration of oil and gas reserves poses a threat to orderly markets.

21 Oil Supply Disruptions The 1973 Arab Oil Embargo was the first oil supply disruption to cause major price increases and a worldwide energy crisis. In Fifteen years during the last half of the 20th century major disruptions in world oil supplies have occurred. Six of those instances decreased the world oil supply by at least 2 million barrels per day. In 1950, the United States provided 52 percent of the world's crude oil production; by 1997 that figure had dropped to 10 percent. Virtually all spare oil production capacity was in the Middle East when the Arab Oil Embargo began in October Supply disruptions increased in severity as world oil production increased and production shifted to less secure areas of the Middle East. Source: Energy Information Administration, Interagency Database and Projections Working Group.

22 Major Disruptions of Oil Supply

23 Nominal & Real (Yr2005) World Oil Prices, , ($/bbl) Source: Peter Davies London, June 14, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2006

24 Energy Security and the UK Nuclear plants are aging and will go out of service. No new nuclear plant is committed or can come on stream before 2018.

25 Energy Security and the UK Hydrocarbon production is in decline and we will soon be a net importer of Oil and Gas.

26 Energy Security and the UK The risk of economic damage from supply disruptions is more pressing that from Climate Change. Over the next decade we will become progressively more susceptible to supply disruptions. Renewables are not able to replace the lost Nuclear generating capacity so gas and coal use must increase for reliable supply. There is a possibility of Brownouts if the capacity of the generating system declines and increased use of wind power increases instability. We seem to have a Carbon Policy not an Energy Policy. UK Energy Security Policy appears to be: FAITH in renewables, HOPE that the Middle East remains stable and that Russia does not turn off the Gas Tap, and otherwise to look for CHARITY from those who have been more prudent.

27 Energy Security What to do? Forget about CO2 emissions and use a wide range of different fuels including coal and tar sands. Take appropriate political action to preserve orderly markets. Increase the energy efficiency of the economy (GDP per unit of energy), for example by rational conservation measures. Ensure adequate access to guaranteed minimum supplies in the event of supply disruption by creating reserves. Develop indigenous supplies including renewables where appropriate (Severn Barrage not wind). Stimulate oil and gas prospecting. Develop a reliable long life energy source.

28 A Reliable Long Life Energy Source Best option is Solar Electric Costs falling at approx 50% / decade Crossover with fossil costs At 30% / decade crossover Also needs a reliable storage technology either better batteries or synthetic fuel. Rapid switch from fossil may cause major economic disruption. Chakravorty et al 1997:1,224-5