Policies and Investments for Poverty Reduction and Food Security in MENA

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1 Policies and Investments for Poverty Reduction and Food Security in MENA Clemens Breisinger Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI Antalya, September 25, 2014

2 Overview Brief history of policy recommendations From awakening to conflict The role of food security policy in building resilience Better information for better lives: Arab Spatial Questions: any policy success stories in 2014?

3 Pre-Arab awakening policy prescriptions Diversify economic structure Foster growth that creates jobs Privatize and liberalize markets Shift from subsidies to targeted income transfers Improve governance and institutions Etc.

4 Policies for a Food Secure Arab World Key messages from UN-ESCWA-IFPRI conference, Manage the transition well 2. Foster job-creating growth 3. Improve trade and market integration 4. Develop innovative solutions for agriculture and water constraints 5. Leverage health, nutrition, and education for food security 6. Implement strategies and policies effectively 7. Support a regional approach 8. Support country-led development process 9. Engage in smart strategic partnerships For more details, please see

5 Average duration of conflict episodes per year The reality: from awakening to conflict

6 Conflict location weighted by the number of fatalities (January 1st 2013 to Sept 20th 2014) NO DATA NO DATA NO DATA Source: Jean-Francois Trinh Tan based on ACLED 2014.

7 Relationship between conflict, the economy and living standards Changes in perception-based political stability and socio-economic conditions in the Arab World from 2010 to 2013 Law & Order 1 Local Economy 2 Employment 3 Standard of Living 4 Algeria * Comoros * Egypt Iraq Jordan Lebanon Mauritania Palestine Sudan * Syria Tunisia Yemen Source: Olivier Ecker, based on GALLUP Analytics (accessed September 23, 2014), based on GALLUP World Poll data. Note: * Changes from 2010 to 2012 (latest estimate). One triangle indicates a change of at least four percentage points in the response rate; two triangles indicate a change of at least 10 percentage points; and three triangles indicate a change of at least 20 percentage points. A square indicates a change of less than four percentage points

8 Egypt: Is it the socio-economy, stupid?

9 Yemen: Does food insecurity drive conflict or does conflict increase food insecurity? Households (%) Conflict exposure ρ = 0.65 Food insecurity Calendar week Source: Ecker Note: The presented indicators are based on the following questions and answers: Conflict exposure: During the past two weeks has any child become afraid of playing outside? Yes. Food insecurity: During the past two weeks have you or any family member experienced going to bed hungry due to lack of food? Yes.

10 Research findings, based on cross-country regression (Maystadt, Trinh-Tan and Breisinger Published in Food Policy) Economic growth reduces the risk of conflict worldwide. Food insecurity is one of the major cause of conflict in Arab countries, more than in the rest of the world. The high vulnerability of Arab countries to global food price variations may explain the exceptionally strong link between food insecurity and the risk of conflict. High food prices increase the risk of conflict through deteriorating food security (which, in turn, reduces people s resistance to engage in conflict). Thus, policies, programs, and projects that improve food security are likely to also reduce conflict.

11 Policy and Program Implications Effective short-run policies to protect people against excessive food price volatility include public grain reserves, social safety nets, and emergency assistance. Effective long-run policies should focus on economic growth that generates income for the poor and foreign exchange revenues for financing food imports. health and nutrition interventions trade integration Improving policies and interventions will require more and better data and information.

12 Arab Spatial: Better information for better lives: Monitoring development and food security in the Arab world

13 Objectives of Arab Spatial Improve access to quality information on food security and related development data interactive mapping experience and analytical tools Support decision and policy making for policy makers, analysts, researchers, media and the public through a mix of easily accessible information and analytical tools

14 What is special about Arab Spatial? Emphasizes linkages between food security and development Focuses on macroeconomic- and micro dimensions Captures spatial dimension at sub-national levels Connects data to real world images Produces multi-layer maps and charts Prints and export function Arab Spatial can be easily expanded, updated, customized Open access

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34 UPCOMING! Arab Food Security BLOG To be launched at joint FAO-IFPRI event at the 2014 Committee on Food Security Meeting in Rome on October 17. In collaboration with IFAD, UN-ESCWA and CGIAR-PIM.

35 Discussion What have been the main policy reforms in MENA in 2014? Fuel subsidy reforms in Egypt, Yemen Progress in trade agreements? Any success stories?