The impact of climate change on patterns of CWR diversity: implications for in situ and ex situ conservation

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Warren Copeland
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1 The impact of climate change on patterns of CWR diversity: implications for in situ and ex situ conservation Rob van Treuren, Theo van Hintum, Roel Hoekstra & Jesús Aguirre Gutiérrez Barcelona, 15 December 2015, PrepActGR Workshop on CC & PGR Centre for Genetic Resources, the Netherlands

Climate change in Europe Expected effects on selected CWR Role

2 Outline of the presentation Background: CGN project on CWR in the Netherlands Study on impact of climate change on Dutch CWR Climate change in Europe Expected effects on selected CWR Role of protected areas Implications for in situ and ex situ conservation

national and global level Inventory of CWR occurring in the Netherlands

3 Background CGN project on CWR in the Netherlands Species focus Economically most important crops for agriculture and horticulture at national and global level Inventory of CWR occurring in the Netherlands Distribution of CWR in the Netherlands Occurrence of Red List species in nature reserves

Background CGN project on CWR in the Netherlands Goals Providing information to the user community Providing policy support for in situ conservation

4 Background CGN project on CWR in the Netherlands Goals Providing information to the user community Providing policy support for in situ conservation Setting priorities for ex situ backing up Research focus Expected effects of climate change on the future distribution in the Netherlands and Europe

5 Climate change: temperature Past changes

6 Climate change: temperature Predicted changes RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5 (a) Change in in average surface temperature ( ( to to ) ) RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5 ace Change temperature in average ( surface to tempera RCP 2.6 GHG emissions peak 2020 then decline (best scenario) RCP 8.5 GHG emissions continue to rise (worst scenario) 32 ( C)

7 Climate change: precipitation cipitation over land Past changes nnual precipitation over land Observed change in annual precipitation over land Observed change in annual precipitation over land (mm yr per decade) r per decade) (mm yr per decade)

8 Climate change: precipitation Predicted changes (b) Change in average precipitation ( to ) Change in average precipitation ( to ) recipitation Change ( in average to precipitation RCP 2.6 GHG emissions peak 2020 then decline (best scenario) RCP 8.5 GHG emissions continue to rise (worst scenario) 32 (%)

precipitation) from the WorldClim dataset Data on soil ph and topsoil organic carbon from the Harmonized World Soil Database

9 Expected climatic effects on selected CWR Species data Selection of 8 CWRs with Red List status in the Netherlands Occurrence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) Environmental data Current bioclimatic data (temperature and precipitation) from the WorldClim dataset Data on soil ph and topsoil organic carbon from the Harmonized World Soil Database Future bioclimatic data (CMIP5) from the WorldClim dataset Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5 Projections for 2070

and precipitation 2 soil-related variables Ensemble of 3 species distribution models MaxEnt

10 Expected climatic effects on selected CWR Modeling Average values of an ensemble of 14 climatic models Used variables 7 climatic variables (low correlation) related to temperature and precipitation 2 soil-related variables Ensemble of 3 species distribution models MaxEnt Random Forest Generalized Linear Model (GLM) Predictions for Europe Analysis for the Netherlands and Europe

Medicagopolymorpha 70 60 50 50 50 60 60 70 70

11 Investigated species Bromus secalinusbromussecalinus Medicago polymorpha Medicagopolymorpha Erucastrum gallicum Erucastrumgallicum Mentha pulegium Menthapulegium Scorzonera humilisscorzonerahumilis Rubussaxatilis Rubus saxatilis Lathyrus japonicuslathyrusjaponicus Valerianella rimosa Valerianellarimosa Species selected on Red List status in the Netherlands and neighboring countries, and on ecology, life history, reproduction and dispersal characteristics

12 Predicted range change Net gain in distribution area Current RCP 2.6 (best case 2070) Range change (%) Species Europe Netherlands Medicago polymorpha Mentha pulegium Current RCP 8.5 (worst case 2070) Range change (%) Species Europe Netherlands Medicago polymorpha Mentha pulegium

13 Predicted range change Net loss of distribution area Current RCP 2.6 (best case 2070) Range change (%) Species Europe Netherlands Valerianella rimosa Lathyrus japonicus Rubus saxatilis Current RCP 8.5 (worst case 2070) Range change (%) Species Europe Netherlands Valerianella rimosa Lathyrus japonicus Rubus saxatilis

28 Erucastrum gallicum -53.04-64.62 Bromus secalinus -61.10-44.78 Current RCP 8.

14 Predicted range change Large range contractions Current RCP 2.6 (best case 2070) Range change (%) Species Europe Netherlands Scorzonera humilis Erucastrum gallicum Bromus secalinus Current RCP 8.5 (worst case 2070) Range change (%) Species Europe Netherlands Scorzonera humilis Erucastrum gallicum Bromus secalinus

15 Role of protected areas Bromus secalinus RCP 8.5

Role of protected areas Presence in protected areas in 2070 in worst case scenario (RCP 8.5) Percentage protected Species Europe Netherlands Mentha pulegium 14.20 18.

16 Role of protected areas Presence in protected areas in 2070 in worst case scenario (RCP 8.5) Percentage protected Species Europe Netherlands Mentha pulegium Medicago polymorpha Bromus secalinus Rubus saxatilis Erucastrum gallicum Scorzonera humilis Valerianella rimosa Lathyrus japonicus

Uncertainties about predicted distributions Climatic uncertainties Climate change scenarios may alter in the future Distribution uncertainties Predictions depend on the quality of the sampling

17 Uncertainties about predicted distributions Climatic uncertainties Climate change scenarios may alter in the future Distribution uncertainties Predictions depend on the quality of the sampling Species may cope with larger environmental variation through phenotypic adaptation Migration to new areas depends on dispersal capacity and rate of species Interactions (competition) may affect species composition at suitable locations Additional effects by non-climatic influences

Conclusions of the study Changing temperatures and precipitation patterns are expected to affect the distribution range of wild plant species Even under the best case scenario, most species are

18 Conclusions of the study Changing temperatures and precipitation patterns are expected to affect the distribution range of wild plant species Even under the best case scenario, most species are expected to show a net loss of distribution area The direction of change of the geographic distribution varies between species The predicted occurrence in protected areas varies between species and between geographic areas Under the worst case scenario, Bromus secalinus and Rubus saxatilis are expected to disappear from the Netherlands

Impact of the study results In situ conservation Conservation measures, ignoring the effects of climate change, will not be effective for many CWR Ex situ conservation Large-scale ex situ backing up

19 Impact of the study results In situ conservation Conservation measures, ignoring the effects of climate change, will not be effective for many CWR Ex situ conservation Large-scale ex situ backing up is required Inclusion in regular genebank collections is not an option because of capacity constraints New strategies are needed What to collect (priorities and numbers) How to manage the collected material (methodology and access)

Topics for discussion Are the current models sufficiently robust for predicting future species distributions under climate change scenarios?

20 Topics for discussion Are the current models sufficiently robust for predicting future species distributions under climate change scenarios? If not, what alternatives are available to predict range changes resulting from climate change? Considering the changing climate, what are the direct consequences for in situ and ex situ conservation strategies? Considering that distribution ranges are expected to shift, how can we best organize a transnational conservation strategy?