Ralf Seppelt, Florian Eppink Titel Foto Jocke Berglund. Martin-Luther Universität Halle-Wittenberg

Transcription

1 Global Land Use Change Dynamics, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Ecosystem Services (GLUES): A Collaborative Initiative Based on Multiple Place-Based Assessment Studies Ralf Seppelt, Florian Eppink Titel Foto Jocke Berglund Martin-Luther Universität Halle-Wittenberg

2 Land management: crucial through limitation Driver Population development Consumption pattern Urbanization Climate change Globalization Land use Agriculture (14%) Pasture, meadows (26%) Infrastructure (0,5%) Forests (35%) Protection sites (11%) Foley et al (2009, Science) Seite 2

3 Harvesting our Earth (HANPP) Human NPP Appropriation 15.6 Pg C/yr or 23.8% of potential net primary productivity 53% harvest, 40% land-use-induced productivity changes, 7% by human-induced fire Haberl et al. (2007, PNAS) Agriculture ( ) 12% increase in cropland 10% rise in permanent pasture Increase of 106% of overall food crop yield per unit area 97% rise in the area of land under irrigation, 638%, 203%, and 854% increase, in the use of fertilizers Green, (2005, Science) Seite 3

4 Harvesting our earth Biocapacity per country WWF Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 18,2 % Land use change 13,8 % Agriculture WWF Haberl et al. (2009, PNAS) IPCC, 2005 Seite 4

5 Protecting Biodiversity Protection sites 11.5% GAP Analysis for Mammals, Amphibian, Birds Recent protection sites are defined neither by othreat (a) ovalue (b) Offers priorities (c) Seite 5 Rodriguez et al. (2004, BioScience)

6 Some conclusions Roundsepp-Haerne et al. (2010, BioScience) Global maps are an important input for international processes Land management is a regional process o direct feedbacks between ecosystem services and human well being o Regional case studies are key o How to learn lessons?

7 Review: Place-based Studies Considered uncertainty Data source Ecosystem services in isolation Modelling approaches Valuation Number of ecosystem services Scenario-Analysis Specific recommendations Stakeholder involvement Seppelt et al. (2011, JApplEcol)

8 Place-based Ecosystem Service studies It is unclear to what degree biophysical realism is required in ecosystem service assessments Methods to analyse trade offs among ecosystem services and economic goals are not well developed #Studies other no interaction interaction Consideration of off-site effects is extremely rare Involvement of stakeholders rarely extends to the implementation phase ( ownership ) #ES considered in each Study Seppelt et al. (2011, JApplEcol) Seite 8

9 GLUES: The Core Idea and Objectives Development of methods and tools for sustainable land management in different regional, hot sport regions develop methods for synthesis based on the results of regional research projects based on consistent global land use and climate change data. Global Land Use Change Dynamics, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Ecosystem Services (GLUES): A Collaborative Initiative Based on Multiple Place-Based Assessment Studies Seite 9

10 Place Based Studies in the Programme Sustainable Land Management Seite 10

11 Syndroms of Land Management Land use, management Energy Input, GHG Biodiversity Ecosystem Services Intensively managed Agro- Ecosystems, determined by agro-environmental political schemes Highly regulated, protection sites, possible conflict to biofuel production High energy input, fossil fuel based agriculture Strong pressure, monocultures, alien species Regulating functions reduced, supporting functions substituted

12 Syndroms of Land Management R Regional land management driven by global markets Land use, management Energy Input, GHG Biodiversity Ecosystem Services Lang grabbing, loss of wetlands, loss of native forests, conflict of biofuels to regional agriculture C loss through deforestation Reduction of biodiversity in species rich regions. Regulation and supporting functions threatened, cultural services through loss of established land use practices

13 Syndroms of Land Management Climate Change as predominant driver: increasing temperature, water stress Land use, management Energy Input, GHG Biodiversity Loss of soil stability, new land management schemes required, possible Loss of permafrost soil, methane emissions, more frequent fire events Loss of biodiversity, change of habitat, species shifts Ecosystem Services Change in regulation function, loss of supporting function

14 Place Based Studies in the Programme Sustainable Land Management Seite 14

15 Four pillars of the GLUES project GLUES: Global Assessment of Land Use Dynamics, Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Ecosystem Services Communication & Outreach Stakeholder & Products Szenario, Models & Synthesis Common Geodata Infrastructure Seite 15

16 GLUES s Methodology and Products GLUES GDI (Geodata Infrastructure) provides a common infrastructure to share and maintain distributed global and regional data sets, scenario data and model results. Szenarios o o Mid-Term Projections (2030/50) incorporate feedbacks of agricultural markets, land use and climate Long-Term Scenarios (2100) land use change scenarios based on global sustainability goals and climate change, used to project land management impacts on global climate. Synthesis develops methods and tools for trade-off and off-site effect analysis, valuation of ecosystem services and support instruments development

17 Conclusion Summary Support for stakeholder and communication into international conventions Work on global scale and embedded place based studies. o Further partners welcome Provide consistent global scenarios and models is key for synthesis o Additional users welcome