The evolution from regulated to natural PV markets Renewable Energy Asia 2012 Alexander Lenz - President Asia & Middle East

Transcription

1 The evolution from regulated to natural PV markets Renewable Energy Asia 2012 Alexander Lenz - President Asia & Middle East Bangkok, June 6 th, 2012

2 GENDA A B PV Market: Regulated vs. natural

3 Conergy s is a PV solution provider, focused on B2B and Turn-Key Project business with a wide range of associated value add services PV System vs. PV Solution PV SYSTEM PV SOLUTION degree of system integration & services B2B Modules Inverter Mounting Systems Branded Quality Focus Component Fit Pre-Sales & Marketing services + Planning Ordering (Kitting) & & Delivery & Warehousing Insurance & Monitoring + Guarantee + Tool & Operations & After Sales Maintenance & + Financing PROJECTS EPC Engineering / Procurement / Construction Project (Co)-Development + + Hardware / Software Service Source: Corporate Business Development 2

4 Conergy produces own premium modules in Germany reckoned in the market for their quality, reliability and yield Conergy Power Plus modules Module Production in Frankfurt / Oder 5 Module production lines 280 Megawatt capacity 3,100 Modules/Day 35,000 m² Manufacturing area Source: Conergy 3

5 Conergy s Power Plus modules guarantee stringent quality control and outstanding warranties backed by the best warranty in the world Conergy Power Plus Modules and Premium Plus Warranty Delivery of identical modules Acceptance of claim costs 12 year product warranty Acceptance of independent institutes 25 year linear power warranty Transfer to 3rd party Claim rate only % Source: Conergy 4

6 Conergy produces mounting systems for all solar applications in Germany / Rangsdorf and USA / Sacramento Conergy Mounting Systems Mounting Systems Production in Rangsdorf and Sacramento 750Megawatt capacity 18,000m² Manufacturing and logistics area SLOPING ROOF ROOF-INTEGRATED FLAT ROOF FREE-FIELD Source: Conergy 5

7 Conergy s electronic components business was sold to German Bosch Group in 2012 and will be sourced from there in the future Inverters and monitoring systems Inverter supply through former Voltwerk entity sold to Bosch over 500 Megawatts produced solutions from 3-1,200Kilowatt for all-size installations INVERTERS MONITORING SYSTEMS Source: Conergy 6

8 Conergy offers the whole premium service portfolio a worry-free package for private and commercial roof tops as well as for solar parks Conergy System Services 14 Years of experience 7 Service areas 1 Total worry-free offer Planning Finance Installation Monitoring Operations Maintenance Insurance EXAMPLE: EPC-SERVICE >600 MWp implemented Installations in Europe, America, APAC Spain: Parks on average 5% above the calculated performance EXAMPLE: MONITORING 150 MWp at 120 locations About 100 operating companies About 80 private customers Ten years of service experience Source: Conergy 7

9 Conergy is represented in all major PV markets to provide leading PV solutions and services to its customers CANADA Edmonton Toronto U.S.A. Denver Sacramento West Sacramento (Mounting Systems prod.) Malven (4 Area Managers) = Country / Regional Headquarter = Country Office = Service Center / Warehouse = Module Production = Mounting Systems Production Source: Conergy UK Milton Keynes CZECH REP. Prague FRANCE Brignoles Saint-Priest (Mounting Systems) SPAIN Madrid Tenerife (5 Area Managers) GREECE Athens Thessaloniki CYPRUS Limassol ITALY Vincenza (6 Area Managers) (8 Area Agencies) AUSTRALIA Sydney Melbourne Adelaide Perth Darwin Brisbane GERMANY Hamburg Frankfurt/Oder (Module prod.) Rangsdorf (Mounting Systems prod.) Leipzig (Service) Zweibrücken (Central Warehouse) (South: 8 Area Managers) (North: 6 Area Managers) INDIA Bangalore Bangalore (Module prod.) Jammu New Delhi Raipur Kolkatta Mumbai (Service) Bhopal (Service) Guawhati (Warehouse) U.A.E. Abu Dhabi THAILAND Bangkok SINGAPORE 8

10 Conergy has a longstanding experience in Asia and Middle East Thai LE will be reopened in Summer 2012 Overview of markets in APAC served by Conergy APAC & Middle East markets REMARKS Middle East Singapore Growth in Asia Pacific markets since 2005 Teams with global experience and local knowledge Regional Headquarters in Singapore serving surrounding markets regional engineering center of excellence Offices in Thailand, UEA, Australia, India Strategic partners in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and the Middle East Countries with own CGY-entity Countries with EPC business driven by Singapore Prospective Markets for EPC driven by Singapore Source: Conergy 9

11 In Thailand, Conergy operates in a proven consortium approach two experienced partners available to maximize execution capacity Consortium Member Engineering Procurement General role in Engineering Procurement Construction project PROJECT ENGINEERING PROJECT MANAGEMENT Conceptual design Main components supply Commissioning support Warranties Tasks Civil design Mechanical design Electrical design Local components supply Installation Commissioning O&M Conergy Local Partner Consortium 10

12 Conergy s first large-scale power plant in Ayutthaya, built in Partnership with Annex Power for Yanhee Solar 11

13 Conergy s first project in Thailand equipped with 100% own system technology built in Partnership with Annex Power for Indorama 12

14 Conergy s second project in Thailand equipped with 100% own system technology built with Annex Power for Yanhee/Ratchaburi 13

15 Conergy s 4th project in Thailand, built in Partnership with Ensys for Chor Karnchang 14

16 GENDA A B PV Market: Regulated vs. natural

17 B PV Market: Regulated vs. natural Regulatory regimes in PV markets create a very positive growth pattern but also lead to market distortions Effects of market regulation on market development in PV Market regulation policies have brought market growth but main actors in this market have diverging interests Government s targets Change energy supply from fossil-based to clean and sustainable sources Long term focus Customer s / Investor s targets Investment with optimized and safe returns Fast payback / short term focus Market regulation through FIT leads to growth but can also lead to market distortions Setting of appropriate subsidy levels is very difficult due to rapidly changing system prices and following FIT cuts This results in either too high or too low subsidies, both influencing decisionmaking on investor s side 16 16

18 B PV Market: Regulated vs. natural Decision criteria for system selection always satisfy short-term objectives but sometimes jeopardize overall long-term goals Effects of market regulation on decision criteria Rational decision criteria High Quality in Actual decision criteria Price / Wp installed capacity System Components Design Execution O&M Long-term investment Stable and reliable power generation Long and qualified experience of the EPC-Contractor Proven track record in both, EPC and O&M Competitive costs in terms of Price per kwh of Output over the lifetime 17

19 B PV Market: Regulated vs. natural PV can reach grid parity in Thailand in 2013 or IRR expectation relatively low residential power price main factor Path to grid parity for a 10 MWp PV System in Thailand Electricity rate in USD/kWh e 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f Year ASSUMPTIONS / REMARKS 15% system price reduction per year 2% installation costs decrease per year with installation time reduction Moderate 2.5% increase in residential power price p.a. Subsidies for today s power mix not taken into account Debt financing will decrease as lenders lower risk premium 8% Equity IRR 12% Equity IRR Residential power cost per kwh Grid Parity 8% IRR Grid-Parity 12% IRR 18

20 B PV Market: Regulated vs. natural kwh instead of kwp will change the PV Market; understanding first attractive niches in Market is key CONERGY LCOE CALCULATIONS FOR PV 1) Calculation for GER DETAILS Due to FIT cuts investments in PV systems will amortize faster by economization of self-produced and consumed kwh instead of fed-in kwh Todays LCOE of PV systems with an operating time of 25 years are producing a kwh between 16 and 19 cent/ kwh when addressing the right application Driver of LCOE costs System price System efficiency System life time Reliability Own consumption rate System price: 1400 EUR/kWp, specific yield: 900 kwh/kwp, O&M costs 1.5% of system costs with 2% annual increase, 100% own capital funding, WACC 5,5 % (Source: Deutsche Bundesbank), SY Degradation: 2% first year then 0.5%/a 19

21 B PV Market: Regulated vs. natural New opportunities ahead: PV market will become part of an overall electricity market what does that mean for the PV industry? Evolution from regulated to natural market PV market (feed-in driven) Today s challenges: Overcapacity Decreasing prices Ongoing cost reductions Products becoming more similar Politically driven markets Electricity market (natural) Tomorrow s opportunities: The world wants clean & affordable kw/h PV will become mainstream New business models are emerging (cheap electricity instead of high profit) New target groups become relevant New products and services will appear 20

22 Thank you for your attention! 21