Renewable Energy Mapping & Monitoring Assessment of the availability of agricultural crop residues

Transcription

1 Renewable Energy Mapping & Monitoring Assessment of the availability of agricultural crop residues N. Scarlat European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) Institute for Energy and Transport Renewables and Energy Efficiency Unit 1

2 Who are we? JRC: the European Commission's in-house science service As a Directorate-General of the European Commission, the JRC provides customer driven scientific and technical support for the conception, development, implementation and monitoring of European Union policies. Institute for Energy and Transport 1 of the 7 scientific institutes of the JRC Our mission: provide support to Community policies and technology innovation to ensure sustainable, safe, secure and efficient energy production, distribution and use and to foster sustainable and efficient transport in Europe Main activities: Renewable energies Sustainable & safe nuclear energy Energy techno/economic assessment Hydrogen and fuel cells Clean fossil fuel Energy efficiency Security of energy supply Sustainable transport 2

3 Mtoe Monitoring RES development Sectoral analysis of bioenergy development RES and bioenergy targets and perspectives Assessing biomass demand vs. potential Addressing sustainability The energy mix will change biofuels 3,1% 2005 hydro 29,7% geothermal 0,5% solar 0,8% RES 2020 target level: ~ 250 Mtoe Bioenergy contribution: ~ 140 Mtoe Renewable final energy consumption in the EU biomass 59,3% Biofuels 8,9% 2010 heat pumps 0,5% Hydro 19,2% wind 6,0% Geothermal 0,7% 250 Solar 2,3% 200 Wind 8,9% Heat pumps 2,9% 150 Biomass 57,0% biofuels 12,1% 50 biomass 45,1% hydro 13,0% geothermal 1,1% hydro geothermal solar tide, wave, ocean wind heat pumps biomass biofuels heat pumps 4,8% 3 wind 17,4% solar 6.2% marine 3 0,2%

4 AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK Mtoe Mtoe Is there enough biomass? Biomass demand, domestic supply and potential better mobilisation 35 -energy crops imports from abroad p 2010a solid biomass biogas bioliquids biofuels solid biomass bioliquids biomass potential (EEA) biogas biofuels biomass potential (Biomass Futures) actual data and projections according to the NREAPs Data sources: National Renewable Action Plans (NREAPs) and Progress Reports

5 % Mha Land use for bioenergy? Premises 3.5 Land requirements for bioenergy production in the EU in 2020 assessment based on the NREAPs projections (E, H&C and biofuels) availability of domestic biomass from forestry, agriculture and waste additional import of biomass 2 nd generation biofuels & bioliquids domestic and imported biofuels & bioliquids AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK EU Scenarios Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Share of land requirements of bioenergy production of utilised agricultural land in NREAPs reference scenario 2. Additional import of biofuels scenario 3. No 2 nd generation biofuels scenario 4. Reduced import of biofuels scenario 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE EL ES FI FR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK EU Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 5

6 Energy potential of waste in Africa Assessment of energy potential from Municipal Solid Waste in Africa (LFG = LandFill Gas) 6

7 Danube Bioenergy Nexus Aim: to address the challenges and opportunities of bioenergy in the Danube Region Proposed activities - Biomass mobilization: present and future role of the Danube River. - Statistical assessment of Bioenergy status & Progress in Danube Countries - Assessment of forest biomass potential for energy - Assessment of agricultural crop residues availability - Local use of biomass feedstock for biogas and bio-heat - Public support schemes & Funding mechanisms for bioenergy 7

8 GIS-based assessment of biomass resources Because Renewable Energies sources are mostly SPARSE and/or IRREGULAR, a careful potential evaluation should be geographically based. Statistical databases (regional level) agricultural crops: area, yield, production forest: forest area, growing stock, annual increment livestock land use Spatial datasets CORINE land cover maps forest map soil maps terrain map Geographical Information System (GIS) JRC maintains spatial data on: agriculture, forest, land use, soil, transport infrastructures. 8

9 Crop residues for energy in the EU Crop residues potential is high abundant throughout Europe how much resource, where? easy to exploit available technology however -> slow transfer of know-how across the EU Inventory of straw in the EU actual crop production environmental constraints competitive use -> spatial data disaggregation Suitability map for large scale electricity generation 9

10 Crop residues for bioenergy Scientific/Technical Networking on agricultural crop residues 10

11 straw to grain ratyio [-] Crop residues for bioenergy crop production (1000 tonnes/region, multi-annual time series) straw production (1000 tonnes/region) residue to yield ratios 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0, crop yield [t/ha] wheat, barley, oat, rye, maize, rapeseed, rice and sunflower 11

12 BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE GR ES FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK Available crop residues [PJ/year] Crop residues [Mt dry] Availability for energy Crop residues available for bioenergy Total crop residues available for bioenergy in EU Production Collectable Available 0 Min Average Max 12

13 Spatial distribution of crop residues Spatial data disaggregation straw for energy in regions spatial crop location density of straw for energy Land use (CORINE) Land cover (M3) Soil productivity Resolution: 1km x 1km

14 Spatial distribution of crop residues Suitability map for localization power plants Main areas with important available resources Straw available for energy Straw density 14

15 Localization of straw based power plants Typical plant using 100 kt biomass/year Max. collection radius of 50 km Optimized allocation Randomized allocation 808 plants 100 kt straw/year 81.7% straw used energy produced: 1.46 EJ plants - 100kt straw/year % straw used energy produced: EJ

16 Available resources country data Potential number of typical' power plants in each MS assuming default or optimal collection rates Default collection rates: plants Optimal collection rates: plants Default collection rates: EJ Optimal collection rates: EJ 16

17 Sustainability of crop residues collection The effect of residue removal rates on SOC stock change Agro-ecosystem Century Model Soil data European Soil Database ESDB Climatic data University of East Anglia Global Climate Change Models (IPCC) - HadCM3-A1FI world markets-fossil fuel intensive scenario - PCM-B1 global sustainability scenario Agricultural land - Corine Land Cover 2006 Three scenarios for crop residues removal no residues removal 50% crop residues removal full crop residues removal 17

18 Sustainability of crop residues collection Absolute variation of SOC in the mid-term (2012 to 2020) 1- no residues collection 2) 50% residues collection 3) full residues collection 18

19 Crop residues removal Default collection Optimal collection Submitted to RSER, November

20 Crop residues in Danube river basin wheat, barley, oat, rye, maize, rapeseed, rice and sunflower production collection available energy potential (kt) (kt) (kt) (ktoe) DC 179,251 78,790 72,352 30,242 EU28 286, , ,486 42,419 20

21 Cost of crop residue mobilisation Calculation model to estimate crop residues cost of supply - cost of specific operations C = t m,p c fix m,p + c var m,p + t st c st + t tr c tr m,p m,p? - spatial distribution of biomass yield distribution transport distance - optimisation of plant size and location harvesting collecting handling transport storage delivery 202/10/2014 October /10/

22 Biogas potential from manure Livestock Information farm geo-location livestock type, number Feedstock information feedstock composition (DM, OM) gas yields (biogas) Spatial allocation according to the distribution of livestock in Europe (FAO) 22

23 Biogas potential from manure: Case study: Hungary 23

24 GIS-based assessment of forest biomass Integrate detailed ground information from National Forest Inventories with remote sensing and modelling tools for a spatially explicit assessment of forest biomass potential. Forest Maps - LAEA Forest Protected areas Forest Biomass Above Ground Biomass Increment Digital Elevation Model Slope gradient map Roads in Europe

25 Forest biomass in Danube river basin Forest biomass - theoretical potential annual increment Resolution: 1km x 1km Three scenarios defined: low mobilisation medium mobilisation high mobilisation Technical & environmental constraints forest biomass (mil m 3 ) theoretical potential forest biomass stemwood forest residues DC EU

26 International cooperation FAO crop and Wood Residue Management for Food Security IEA Bioenergy Task 43 Biomass Feedstocks for Energy Markets IEA Bioenergy How2Guide? specific guidance for technology roadmap development and implementation at the national/regional level IRENA resource mapping, waste to energy potential 26

27 Scientific/Technical Networking Cereal straw resources for bioenergy in the European Union, Pamplona, CENER. Cereals straw and agricultural residues for bioenergy in New Member States and Candidate Countries, 2007, Novi Sad. Sustainable Bioenergy Cropping Systems for the Mediterranean, Madrid JRC, EEA, CENER, CIEMAT. Extending RES sustainability criteria to solid and gaseous biomass, The Hague, Uppsala, Toronto, JRC, IEA, INAS, NL Agency Agro-environmental impact of biofuels and bioenergy (EUROCLIMA), UNICAMP/CTBE Campinas, Brazil, Greenhouse gas emissions from biofuels and bioenergy (EUROCLIMA), INTA, Buenos Aires, Argentina, The effects of increased demand for biofuel feedstocks on the world agricultural markets and areas, Ispra, Review and inter-comparison of modelling land use change effects of bioenergy, OECD/EEA, Paris, Direct and indirect impact of biofuel policies on tropical 2 October deforestation 2014 in Malaysia, MPOC, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Biomass resource assessment for biofuels/ bioenergy and competition with other biomass uses, Eberswalde University/EEA, Eberswalde, Germany, SRF, SRC and Energy Grass in the European Union: Agro-environmental component, present use and perspectives, 2007, Harpenden -EEA, Rothamsted. EU Forest-based biomass for energy: cost supply relations and constraints, Metla/EFI, 2007, Joensuu 27

28 Joint Research Centre (JRC) Robust science for policy making 28