HOW CAN POLICY MAKERS HELP CREATE

Transcription

1 HOW CAN POLICY MAKERS HELP CREATE THE RIGHT FRAMEWORK FOR INNOVATION? Dr. Mario Ragwitz, Fraunhofer ISI IEA Working Party on Renewable Energy Technologies

2 Innovation in renewable energy basics Innovation should be measured using a large variety of indicators; i.e. patents, reduced costs and prices due to improved processes, the number of products newly launched onto the market, innovative start- ups and investments in research and development. The higher the market growth induced by deployment policies, the more private companies will invest in exploration and exploitation ti of new technologies. Market growth together with public R&D has lead to substantial innovation effects in RES technologies. There has been a marked, disproportionate increase in patent applications for renewable energy technologies over the last few years. RES deployment policies for RES need to keep up pressure for cost reduction but at the same time minimize revenue risks. Seite 2

3 Learning Investment und break-even point new technology, LR = 0.15 new technology, LR = 0.2 new technology, LR = 0.25 cost target specific c cost [ /kw W] 1000 learning investment break-even point c ref cumulative capacity [GW] Sensitivity of Learning Investments and break-even point w.r.t. learning rate (log-log scale, c 0 = 6000 /kw, cost target c ref = 1000 /kw). Quelle: Folz; Fh-ISI Seite 3

4 Learning Investment and break-even Punkt break k-even point (cum. prod.) [ GW] le earning inves stment [Mrd ] 100,000 10, , ,617 biomass wind CSP 2, PV 124 break-even point [GW] learning investment [Mrd. ] 75 Material sceince for PV and?? Lighting Biotechnology IT for system integration Lernrate Sensitivity of Learning Investments and break-even point w.r.t. learning rate (log-log scale, c 0 = 6000 /kw, cost target c ref = 1000 /kw). Source: Folz; Fh-ISI Seite 4

5 Learning curve expectations realised for photovoltaics Source: IRENA Seite 5

6 Continuous price reductions in alignment with cost reductions are key! /kwh] In Germany FIT levels for PV could be reduced by more than 75% within 8 years < 30 kwp < 100 kwp < 1 MWp > 1 MWp green field Feed-in Tar riffs [ cent Seite 6

7 Learning curve expectations realised for wind energy FLC WT DK Average list price of WT in DK ( 2005/kW) 1FLC DK (LR=8.5%) 05/kW) price ( y = 2231x cum. capacity (MW) Source: Folz Seite 7

8 Deployment incentives for RES globally Total Subsidies for Renewable energies continuously increase despite strong technological learning Source: WEO 2013 Seite 8

9 R&D expenditures for RES in OECD Total R&D expenditures for RES also show rapid increase during last decade R&D expenditures for RES in OECD based on IEA R&D database Tot tal R&D Expenditu ures RES [ Mio.$] Seite 9

10 R&D spending and market development of PV in Germany Relative R&D spending per sales of German PV industry decreased with growing market but absolute expenditures strongly increased. Source: Hoppmann et al (2013) Seite 10

11 Number of patents for renewables grows substantially stronger than all patents Year 2000 = 100 all Patents Renewables PV Wind Source: Walz et al Seite 11

12 Number of patents for renewables strongly correlates with RES market deployment Source: Chatham House Seite 12

13 Innovation in renewable energy key findings "Carbon pricing alone will not be sufficient to reduce emissions on the scale and pace required deployment incentives for low emission technologies should increase two to five times public energy R&D funding should double" Stern Review Stable and predictable remuneration schemes for renewables provide the basis for continuing i innovation and cost reduction Public R&D should focus on fundamental and applied research in new technologies with a focus on cross-cutting issues like material science or biotechnology and compete for the best R&D result Generation system with more flexibility need in institutional innovations, e.g. to create markets to incentivize flexibility of the demand side or participation of renewables in balancing markets governments need to support the suitable market design Seite 13

14 We systematically ti assess key factors framing renewable energy technology diffusion in the European Union in an online questionnaire open until 15 th of April and kindly ask you to participate in this: Thank you! Seite 14