Tin for tomorrow New sources for new applications. Peter Kettle - Manager, Markets, ITRI Ltd

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1 Tin for tomorrow New sources for new applications Peter Kettle - Manager, Markets, ITRI Ltd ITRI Explorers & Developers Group Australian Tin Tour, September 2012

2 Leading companies 2011 production Yunnan Tin MSC Group PT Timah Minsur Thaisarco Guangxi China Tin Yunnan Chengfeng EM Vinto Metallo Chimique Gejiu Zi-Li Data: ITRI 000 tonnes ITRI represents most leading tin producers, which account for twothirds of world refined metal production. Its main objective over 80 years has been to support tin usage Refined tin production in blue, mine output in red

3 5 things to remember about tin 1 2 Small but serious - and traded on the world s largest metals exchange Strong price outlook, based on supply constraints 3 A vital ingredient in a wide range of products 4 New applications should offset substitution and economisation 5 Investment in new mines needed

4 The price roller-coaster Long-term tin price history US$/tonne, inflation adjusted 2010 prices 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, CRU Commodity Heat Chart 2Q2012 to 2016 Four Year Outlook % Change Climate Palladium 88% Hot Tin 56% Hot Zinc 53% Hot Uranium 45% Hot Alumina 42% Hot Aluminium 38% Hot Platinum 28% Hot Lead 21% Hot Nickel 18% Hot Met Coke 18% Hot Vanadium 9% Warm Phosphate DAP 7% Warm Cobalt 5% Warm Iron Ore -4% Cool Manganese -5% Cold Gold -6% Cold Copper -6% Cold Coking Coal -7% Cold Potash -16% Freezing Ammonia -17% Freezing Urea -17% Freezing Silver -42% Freezing Sulphuric Acid -48% Freezing Sulphur -56% Freezing

5 000 tonnes Asia drives growth in tin use Tin usage by country/region, Other Europe Other Americas USA Other Asia Japan China Data: ITRI

6 Global tin use by industry sector 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Others Float Glass Brass & Bronze Chemicals Tinplate Solder - industrial Solder - electronic Estimates based on ITRI annual surveys since 2005 as part of our Sustainability Project

7 Potential new markets

8 Potential new markets - 2

9 World tin supply major producers 000t Leading tin producing countries long term trends China Indonesia Malaysia Bolivia Peru ROW Data: ITRI

10 China refined tin and mine output tonnes Gap between mine and refined tin production filled by raw material imports and secondary production

11 Indonesian production falls Output of tin-in-concentrate, tonnes

12 Million tonnes tin Surveys of tin resources and reserves World Resources World Reserves Western World Reserves 37.0 New reserves will continue to be discovered and developed. Reserves today are the same as 60 years ago although 14 million tonnes has been mined since then Paley 1952 Robertson 1965 Sainsbury USDI 1973 USGS 1990 USGS 2012

13 Many deposits few real projects 1 at feasibility stage 90Kt at feasibility stage 4 at scoping stage 10 with compliant resources 310Kt at scoping stage 824Kt as compliant resources ~ 60 with historical resources ~3.2Mt as historical resources ~130 known deposits ~4.8Mt of estimated reserves (USGS) Data: ITRI, Greenfields Research, USGS, Infomine, company websites

14 World undeveloped tin resources Pyrkakay Catavi Tailings Achmmach Gottesberg Pravourmiyskoe Cinovec Syrymbet San Rafael Tailings Kuala Langat Rentails Mount Lindsay Sleitat Colquiri Tailings Taronga Narsiin Khundlen Mount Pleasant Heemskirk Geyer-Southwest Mt Garnet JORC or NI Compliant Projects controlled by ITRI Explorers and Developers Group members shown in red. Many of the others are inactive or uneconomic at current prices Known larger undeveloped deposits 000 tonnes Sn Data: ITRI 0 50, , , , ,000

15 Major global tin projects Santa Maria Oropesa Achmmach Geyer Cinovec Gottesberg AbuDabbab Syrymbet Narsiin Khundlen Kuala Langat San Rafael Tailings Mt Garnet Major tin mine project Non-tin mining country (2011) Tin mining country (2011) Rentails Heemskirk Mt Lindsay

16 New locations for safer projects Country Ranking (of 181) Canada Australia 4 th 5 th - - USA 10 th - - Germany 20 th - - UK 25 th - - Spain 27 th Country Ranking (of 181) Peru 56 th - - China Brazil 71 st 72 nd - - Indonesia 111 th - - Bolivia 125 th - - DR Congo 159 th Data: Greenfields Research Country risk rankings combine intergovernmental and industry data sets

17 The evolving tin supply curve Operating (2012) Brownfields Greenfields Greyfields New projects need to enter the cost curve here! These projects currently not economic Data: ITRI/Greenfields Research

18 Forecast changes in mine production Australia Other Countries Africa Brazil Malaysia Peru Bolivia Russia China Indonesia Forecast change from , 000 tpy

19 Forecast weeks supply and prices Weeks supply, price in US$/tonne Weeks' supply Prices Forecast 40,000 35, , ,000 20,000 15, , ,

20 5 things to remember about tin 1 Small but serious 2 Strong price outlook 3 A vital ingredient 4 New applications 5 Investment needed