Nigeria Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition 3 July Special Keynote address by HE Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo Secretary General, OPEC

Transcription

1 Nigeria Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition 3 July 2018 Special Keynote address by HE Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo Secretary General, OPEC

2 Disclaimer The data, analysis and any other information ( Content ) contained in this presentation is for informational purposes only and is not intended as a substitute for advice from your business, finance, investment consultant or other professional. Whilst reasonable efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the Content of this presentation, the OPEC Secretariat makes no warranties or representations as to its accuracy, currency or comprehensiveness and assumes no liability or responsibility for any error or omission and/or for any loss arising in connection with or attributable to any action or decision taken as a result of using or relying on the Content of this presentation. This presentation may contain references to material(s) from third parties whose copyright must be acknowledged by obtaining necessary authorization from the copyright owner(s). The OPEC Secretariat will not be liable or responsible for any unauthorized use of third party material(s). The views expressed in this presentation are those of the OPEC Secretariat and do not necessarily reflect the views of individual OPEC Member Countries Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 22

3 Dr Alirio Parra: An OPEC Icon 2018 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 33

4 OPEC Bulletin: Nigeria Special 2018 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 4

5 World oil supply growth outpaced oil demand growth during , y-o-y change, mb/d Non-OPEC production 3.5 mb/d OPEC NGLs 0.4 mb/d 5.8 mb/d OPEC crude 1.9 mb/d World oil demand 4.3 mb/d From 2014 to 2016, world supply grew by 5.8 mb/d, while word oil demand increased by 4.3 mb/d Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Source: OPEC Secretariat. 5

6 Rise in OECD commercial inventories, mb 3,100 3,000 OECD commercial inventories at the end of the year 2,989 3, Difference to 5-year average 403 mb 2, mb 2, , ,700 2, mb 2,600 2,500 2, Oct 14 Dec 14 Feb 15 Apr 15 Jun 15 Aug 15 Oct 15 Dec 15 Feb 16 Apr 16 Jun 16 Aug 16 Oct 16 Dec 16 Feb 17 Apr 17 Jun 17 Aug 17 Oct 17 Dec 17 Feb 18 Apr Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Source: OPEC Secretariat. 6

7 Relation between investment and oil prices $ bn US$/b Global Spending(LHS) Prices (RHS) % 20% 0% 20% 40% Spending, y o y change 28% 6% 15% 7% 24% 25% Clear correlation between oil prices and investment levels. The last cycle saw the most severe downturn in investment over a period of two years with around 25% drop per year. 7 7

8 Oil demand in the long term Global oil demand will increase by 15.8 mb/d, reaching mb/d by World oil demand by sector The transportation sector will remain the main consumer of oil. Strong growth is also foreseen in the petrochemicals sector. Demand growth decelerates over the long-term. 8 8

9 OPEC landmark decisions in 2016 Algiers Accord 170th (Extraordinary) Meeting of the Conference 28 September 2016; Algiers Vienna Decision 171st Meeting of the Conference 30 November 2016; Vienna Adjustment of 1.2 mb/d from OPEC 11 countries Joint Declaration of Cooperation OPEC and non OPEC Ministerial Meeting 10 December 2016; Vienna Adjustment of 0.6 mb/d from 11 non OPEC participating countries 2018 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Source: OPEC Secretariat. 9

10 Impact of DOC implementation and achievements 25 sovereign producing nations acting in partnership Element of oil market stability reintroduced A transparent and fully accessible platform, open to all producers Positive change in perceptions of OPEC Commended by producers, consumers and industry stakeholders Positive impact on the global economy, trade worldwide has increased Return of confidence to the oil industry, gradual recovery in investments Welcomed by financial markets Oil export values have significantly increased (34 37%) 2018 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 1010

11 Drop in OECD commercial oil stock since Declaration of Cooperation 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% Conformity by OPEC and non OPEC participants, % Average 118% 152% By product mb Jan 17 Oct 17 May18 Products Crude Total 60% 40% 20% 0% Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May By region mb Jan 17 Oct 17 May 18 Americas Asia Pacific Europe OECD Total 2018 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Sources: Euroilstock, IEA, METI, OPEC Secretariat and US EIA. 11

12 Performance of the world economy and oil demand growth percentage GDP change from the previous year, % World GDP growth in selected countries World oil demand, 2018 (mb/d) 102 OECD US Euro zone Japan * 2018* Non OECD Brazil Russia India China OPEC Note: * 2018 = Forecast. Sources: OPEC Secretariat, IMF, Markit and Haver Analytics Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 OECD Non OECD World oil demand (RHS) 2018 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 12

13 Thank you 13